01-23-2012 07:34 AM - edited 01-23-2012 02:34 PM
VIDEO: Grain Market Summary for January 23, 2012.
At the close:
The March corn futures settled 8 1/2 cents higher at $6.20. The March soybean contract settled 30 1/2 cents higher at $12.17 1/2. The March wheat futures ended 9 1/4 cents higher at $6.19 3/4. The March soyoil futures settled $0.99 higher at $51.42.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.62 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 24 points.
One grain analyst says, "Monday is when funds price in the weekend weather results and the weather the week ahead. Rains projected over the weekend in south America were far less than projected. No surprise here as we have opened higher to start the week the last 6 consecutive weeks. When your in a La-Nina dry pattern your rains are always under projections. The next chance for rain in Argentina is January 1. So, weather looks to be supportive with higher prices ahead."
One floor trader agrees, "Much of the rally is based upon the lack of rain for the Argentine corn crop. With 80% of that country's corn crop damaged from dryness, the market will not change direction until weather patterns change in South America. Don't forget, the soybean crop is set to scream for more moisture too," he says.
Oh by the way, I'm hearing from the floor that corn is going to try for a run up to $6.35 and soybeans to $12.40, this week.
At mid-session, the March corn futures are trading 3 1/2 cents higher at $6.15. The March soybean contract is trading 26 cents higher at $12.13. The March wheat futures are trading 8 1/2 cents higher at $6.19. The March soymeal futures are trading $8.90 per short ton higher at $320.80. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.82 higher at $51.25.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.70 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 27 points.
USDA says Mexico bought 152,900 metric tons of U.S. corn Monday.
At the open:
At the open, the March corn futures trade 8 1/2 cents higher at $6.20 1/4. The March soybean contract opened 25 1/4 cents lower at $12.12 1/4. The March wheat futures opened 9 cents higher at $6.19 1/2. The March soymeal futures opened $10.50 per short ton higher at $322.30. The March soyoil futures opened $0.06 higher at $51.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.39 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 28 points.
Here is the updated South America weather forecast for this week. In summary, it appears less-than-needed-rain will fall this week.
China's New Year Lunar Holiday starts today. Asian grain demand will be absent from this week's market. Also, China has blocked imports of India's soymeal and rapemeal, due to the finding of contaminents. This is expected to increase the imports of whole beans.
Early calls: Corn 4-6 cents higher, soybeans 12-14 cents higher, and wheat 6-8 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Traded higher.
Crude Oil=$0.97 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher as a Greek debt deal may be reached this week.
World Markets=Mostly higher.
More in a minute,
01-23-2012 07:42 AM
Southamerican Weather: Dissapointing rains in Arg during the wknd . Chance for more rains next 48hrs ...not much ...but never know .. More rainfall expected for MT in Brz next 7-10 days.
See forecats maps below :
01-23-2012 08:00 AM
Sorry to hear those Argentine farmers are not getting much needed rainfall. According to the map you posted, it does look like Mato Grosso is drying out, allowing for early soybean harvest? Am I reading that correctly?
01-23-2012 08:15 AM
well.. not really .. according to maps there are rains of between 50 to 100m for the 01/23 to 01/28 period. The more you go to the "red" colors , the more rains you get in that particular map
01-23-2012 08:30 AM
Not much talked about here as it is too early for most areas to "cry wolf"....
Swing State Texas Facing Poor Wheat Harvest
Severe drought in Texas will lead to a poor harvest in 2012 as a large share of wheat planted will be abandoned.
Texas wheat has declined with the return of dry weather to the Southern Great Plains. The good-excellent Texas wheat fell to only 22% January 15. Poor-very poor wheat comprised 56% of Texas wheat, and the worst conditions since November 20.
Poor wheat conditions do not bode well for the new harvest. February is the time when producers decide whether to keep wheat or graze it out to cattle, using the crop as a feed grain. Damaged wheat land, not worth harvesting, may be planted with cotton, sorghum or corn in the spring.
Texas is a swing state in hard red wheat production. In years of drought, the percentage of wheat "abandoned", or not harvested for grain, is very high. Texas wheat losses in the 2005-06 crop season set a record when 75% of planted wheat went un-harvested.
West Texas the state's key wheat area has experienced the driest planting conditions since the mid 1950s with July-December rainfall only 52% of normal. Drought eased from early November to mid December with above-normal rain and snowmelt. It seemed as if the drought was finally resolving. However, very dry weather has resumed, once again, in the past month with re-strengthening of the La Niña .
La Niña Expected to Persist
01-23-2012 08:42 AM
January 20, 2012 Cotton Planting in Mato Grosso Slowed due to Wet Weather
Planting of the 2011/12 cotton crop in Mato Grosso is being slowed by the recent wet weather in the state. According to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), 63% of the state's cotton crop was planted as of last week, which is slower than normal. There are actually two cotton crops in the state, the full-season cotton planted in December and the safrinha cotton crop planted after the harvest of the early maturing soybeans. The planting delays now being encountered are primarily for the safrinha cotton due to a delayed start to the soybean harvest. Imea estimated that 1.2% of the state's soybeans have been harvested as of last week when normally 4% to 5% would be harvested by this date.
January 23, 2012 Wet Weather in Brazil Slows Harvest, Increases Disease Pressure
The persistent wet weather in central Mato Grosso is not only slowing the initial soybean harvest, it is also causing some concerns about the spread of soybean rust. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) estimated that as of last Thursday 2.7% of the state's soybean crop had been harvested and that 5% was mature and waiting to be harvested. Imea does not think that the yields have been compromised as yet, but there are reports of poor seed quality due to the wet weather. The poor seed quality is probably being cause by a fungus called Pod and Stem Blight that invades the pods and results in small and shriveled seeds that are acidic and lighter in weight than normal seed.
01-23-2012 09:52 AM
below , the most recent study from the Confederation of Rural Associates in Cordoba, Argentina.-
Corn yield 5,500 kg/ha ( from 6,900 initial est) , soybean 2,400 kg/ha ( prev 2,900).-
01-23-2012 11:22 AM
New Argentine harvest estimates are hitting the Dow Jones Newswire this morning. Are these estimates above or below what you hear on the ground in Argentina?
Corn=23.0 million metric tons