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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,153
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk January 24

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March corn futures settled 10 1/4 cents higher at $6.30 1/4. The March soybean contract ended 2 1/2 cents higher at $12.20. The March wheat futures closed 13 3/4 cents higher at $6.33 1/2. The March soymeal futures settled  $2.50 per short ton higher at $323.50. The March soyoil futures closed $0.07 lower at $51.35.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.50 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 48 points.

 

Reminder: You can catch a video of the Grain Market Summary on m.agriculture.com on your mobile phone each afternoon. Which reminds me, I was curious if anyone would share their thoughts about the mobile site, m.agriculture.com. What do you think?.

 

Mike

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At 11:15am:

 

The word is that Russia is in the market today buying U.S. milling wheat. How much is not known. But, it's apparently enough to push up wheat and corn.

 

Mike

---------

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures trade 13 cents higher at $6.33. The March soybean contract is trading 1 cent lower at $12.16 1/2. The March wheat futures are trading 13 1/4 cents higher at $6.33. The March soymeal futures are trading $1.20 per short ton higher at $322.20. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.12 lower at $51.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.63 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 45 points.

 

Mike

-------

At 10:35am:

Wheat and corn turn higher Tuesday. Soybean prices remain lower. Corn gains strength from this idea that the damage is done to the Argentine corn crop. The Food Ag Organization released a new estimate of Argentina's 2012 corn production stating the crop will  be 7% lower in 2012.

 

One trader says, "Is there some Russia talk out there?  Supposedly, that is what is driving this higher. I can’t find anything on the wires.  At any rate, it is impressive here today, with general buying.  Some selling from Brazil on this rally due to the rains in Argentina last night.  We had all expected lower markets due to the rain and the us dollar, but there is something else in the air that I have not heard.  Eastern basis is reported very strong to help the bulls too," he says.

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the March corn futures trade 2 1/2 cents lower at $6.17 1/4. The March soybean contract opened 9 1/4 cents lower at $12.08 1/4. The March wheat futures opened 1 cent higher at $6.21. The March soymeal futures opened $1.50 per short ton lower at $319.50. The March soyoil futures opened $0.22 lower at $51.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.67 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 61 points.

 


S&P may cut Greek debt to 'selective default'.

 

Mike

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At 8:10am:

A few thoughts based upon news items of the day:

--More folks are eating hamburgers, as McDonald's reports higher earnings than expected for the fourth quarter. The hamburger company says its world revenue had a lot to do with its 2011 growth.

--Yet another country reports record wheat output. That's not what the wheat market needs to hear.

--With more federal funding being offered today for gas stations, in the form of blender pump assistance, it looks like ethanol still has the support of government.

--Just when you thought the world's economy may be gaining momentum, Greek debt talks slow down the 'economy train'.

--Argentine rains are being called 'a soaker' and could be enough to put 'a top' on the soybean market. What say you?

 

Mike

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At 6:30am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 9-11 cents lower, and wheat 3-5 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.36 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower as Greek debt talks break down. More U.S. corporate results will be reported today.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks trade higher. Europe stocks are lower.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,108
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 24

Mike,

 

Do your contacts have any estimates on the yield reduction on South America?  From the recent post from South America (agmr) it seems that things are worse.  Does anyone have a contact with ADM, CARGILL, BUNGE to gives us a corporate perspective?

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,153
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 24

giolucas,

 

I'll look into your request. Meanwhile, here is this morning's forecast for Argentina's corn. This is the latest from the Dow Jones Newswire.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

Frequent Contributor
agmr
Posts: 58
Registered: ‎12-21-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 24

SA weather fcst .

See below fcsts maps . If they materialize there would be a drying trend in Arg and a much wetter pattern in MT.-

 

Map 1 : accum rainfall 01/23 to 01/29 .

Map 2 : Prcp fcst 01/23 to 02/08

 

map 1.png

 

 

Map 2 : map 2.png

 

 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,153
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 24

agmr,

 

I'm hearing the latest Argentina rain was the best since November. It's being called a 'soaker' in the grain trade. Some analyst see this as a rain that will put in a 'top'  for the soybean market. I'm also hearing Argentine corn crop production estimates below 20 million metric tons. There seems to be this belief that the corn crop will keep getting smaller. But, the jury is still out on the soybean crop.

 

How are farmers dealing with this drought stress. Also, could you have Daniel give me a shout back, regarding my request?  Thanks for your contribution.

 

Mike

 

Frequent Contributor
agmr
Posts: 58
Registered: ‎12-21-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 24

Mike

Daniel is out till feb 17th..... His turn to tour the region...

 

This is the latest official report from the Rosario Grain Exchange :

" Maize is in intensive care and soybeans in intermediate care "

For the maize crop, the conditions are generally ranging from fair to poor, with low height and small size of kernels which will be reflected in meager returns regardless of future rainfall. In most severe cases, there are no direct formation of kernel whatsoever.

The situation of the soybean crop is also critical because, in general , it is starting the pod formation period with low leaf area , without closing the "interlines" (entresurco) , and water stress. Attacks are reported from mites, pest characteristics of dry years, which is reminiscent of the 2008/2009 campaign. In marginal areas of lower productivity is where most feel the effects of lack of water, since they have irregular patches , thinned plants and lower height, and in these cases, yields will be invariably lower, "

 

Senior Contributor
Blacksandfarmer
Posts: 893
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 24

Mike Im glad I took advantage of yesterdays rally and sold some new crop soybeans for a pretty nice price.. $11.37 to a local elevator. I really have a feeling that the weather situation in SA will turn out similar to ours last year for the Eastern cornbelt, or at least its looking that way. Last year our early corn burned up but a few decent rains came in August and really saved our soy crop. It don't take a huge amount of rain at the right time to make a good soybean crop...... How big of a deal is it that China is out of the market this week?

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,153
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 24

[ Edited ]

On China, I just stuck my head into the "demand" room and heard an echo from my voice when I asked, "Anybody in here?" I yelled, "Hello." All that I heard was the reverb of my own voice, "hhhheeeellloooooo, lo, lo, lo, lo.........."

 

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
Blacksandfarmer
Posts: 893
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 24

Mike it sounds like you've been on the floor toooo long haha!

Visitor
mqpmike
Posts: 2
Registered: ‎05-04-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 24

Argentine Gov.t denies any rumors over possible corn or soy export ban??