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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk January 28

[ Edited ]

At mid-day:

The March futures corn contract is trading 3 cents higher at $7.24. The March soybean futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $14.43. March wheat futures are trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $7.76 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.24 lower at $51.86. The March soymeal futures are trading $2.30 per short ton higher at $418.70. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.39 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 11 points lower.

 

Mike

----------

At 10:15am:

The March futures corn contract is trading 2 1/2 cents higher at $7.23. The March soybean futures contract is trading 1 cent higher at $14.42. March wheat futures are trading 2 cents lower at $7.74 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.16 lower at $51.94. The March soymeal futures are trading $0.90 per short ton higher at $417.30. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.43 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points lower.

 

Mike

----------

At the open:

The March futures corn contract is trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $7.20. The March soybean futures contract opened 1/4 of a cent lower at $14.40. March wheat futures opened 5cents lower at $7.71 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract opened $0.10 lower at $52.00. The March soymeal futures opened $0.10 per short ton higher at $416.50. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.43 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points lower.

 

Mike

-------------

At 8am:

--USDA announces Monday that China has purchased 220,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14 delivery.

--Don't look now but rising flour prices in Russia has some calling for that country to slow its grain exports. Can anybody say Intervention Grain. We have been talking for months about how if Russia is selling grain from its Intervention fund that this signals a need to slow exports or even implement a grain export ban. The call came for this ban in the summer, but the Minister rejected the idea. Will we see a ban early this year? Stay tuned.

 

Mike

------

At 6:50am:

 

Tom White, FutureRoad.net and CME Group corn pit trader, tells us what the technicals are indicating for the corn market:

 

"The markets can give a variety of signals depending on the trader’s style and time frame reference.  We like to use a ratio of 1:4 or 1:5 in analyzing markets.  It is best to begin with the “longest term” chart and then apply shorter term charts.  For example, if we first look at the weekly chart as our longest-term reference, we drop down to the daily and then the 60-minute chart to determine bias.  If/when the direction of the three time frames coincide, the trader can feel more confident in implementing trades.  For trade implementation, drop down to the shortest term chart.  One can do the same for shorter-term analysis, e.g. scalpers can start with the 60-minute chart to determine basic bias and use the 15 and 3 (or 5-minute) chart for further analysis. In this case, use the patterns on the 3 or 5-minute chart to determine how to initiate trades.
We mention this as a background for the following commentary for Corn.  In our opinion, the weekly chart indicates that the selling that took place beginning in July may have been corrective.  Trade, last week, moved back to and held at the weekly moving averages  Trade below 680.2 this week, however, would take us below a momentum indicator which would negate this thinking.
The 60-minute chart appears to have been in consolidation last week and “begs” for completion of a fifth “leg above previous short-term highs.
Thus, our general thinking is that we spent last week in consolidation trade and we will eventually resolve to the long side.  We have not received confirmation from the dailies that the market has firmly confirmed the long side bias.  But we’ll monitor," he says.

Mike

--------

At 6:35am:

Early calls:  Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.03per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen falt, ahead of earnings from Caterpillar and a durable goods report.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks and Europe's stocks are mixed.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,102
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk January 28

Morning Mike and All .

 

Just read that Late Friday the Gulf basis hit a new record of 1.25 over March beans ! Boy is  SOMEBODY needing them or what ?  

 

It must be getting harder to get beans to  keep filling them boats for China .

 

Just Wonder what will happen if the GFS and the EU. model comes true with heavy rain thur Northern and Central Brazil the latter part of the week , Hope that all them drivers , sitting along the MUD roads down there packed there rain coats .

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,102
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk January 28

[ Edited ]

OK Mike -- Just read your post , and what Tom had to say , This was worse than going to the Doctor's Office !!!!!!!!

 

1.4 -- 1.5 , 60 minute charts ? to 60 secound carts ??? I could use a few bad words here but tring to do better on that , LOL

 

So Mike , Give to me straight here Doc . -- AS in translate in English for a Hillbilly Hoosier . lol

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 28

[ Edited ]

ECIN,

 

I'm with you. These chartists are real mind-benders sometimes. I'm going to have to get TW, Tom White, in here to give us the dumbed-down version. I pass along his information for those guys/gals on here that are up to speed on that kind of talk. Surely, people don't think I understand everything I post? :smileyhappy:

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,602
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 28

Mike, You may not understand it, but everything that you post is true, right? It must be if you read it on the internet.     BTW, Any word from your SA reporters on the latest weather down there?

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 28

roarintiger1,

 

I've been trying to reach them. But, Brazil suffered a horrible tragedy over the weekend. The country is mourning the losses of those young folks killed in a club fire early Sunday morning. Most of those that died were agronomy students at a local university in Rio Grande do Sul. It's very sad. You might say a prayer for the lost and their loved ones left behind.

 

Mike

Frequent Contributor
noreaster
Posts: 61
Registered: ‎01-24-2012
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Night Clubbin

10-15 years ago when I was in my prime.... so I thought anyways we spent ample time in clubs and let me tell ya, I always had a paranoia of things going bad in those places..... My buddies told me to switch from Whiskey to beer...

 

I just feel horrible for those kids and their families...

Contributor
vzapletin
Posts: 12
Registered: ‎01-14-2013
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Re: Floor Talk January 28

In case anyone is interested in the situation in the black sea markets of Russia/Ukraine it's as follows:

 

1) Russian prices for wheat are so high, any talk of export at this stage is totally ridiculous, the only export of wheat at this stage, is from traders who have their cargo already in the port silos, there is perhaps 200,000mt of wheat to be exported , but that's it. Inland prices in russia are 410usd EXW , compare this with 320 FOB for SRW and you see why there is not even a slightest chance of export at this stage. Russia has already imported around 300,000mt of wheat from Kazakhtan, due to customs union with kazakhstan , kazakh wheat is not subject to import duty. No matter what happens, russia will have to import much more wheat to keep the lid on prices, the question is will this wheat come from surrounding countries , inland, or from international markets, that remains to be seen, russian analysts are putting odds at 40%... Corn prices in russia have also risen to around 315$usd cost basis for exporters to compete with internal market, hence for the time being corn exports are also essentially done. In either case russia is not a big exporter of corn at around 1.5/2million mt, so the market impact is relatively mild.

2) Ukraine is also more or less done with wheat exports, there was recently a government tender which allocated around 225,000mt of wheat, this is being offered around 350 usd/mt FOB Ukraine, and will find a home rather fast. All in all not much of an impact on the market as the volumes are tiny. 

Ukrain has exported around 7.3mmt of corn as of 21st of Jan, this will likely mean around 8mmt of exports till the end of the month. This is out of the total 12mmt of corn forecast to be exported. So only leaves around 4mmt of corn on the market. However, recently there were reports that a lof of the corn coming to elevators now is of bad quality, as usual a lot of corn has been left in the fields to be harvested later, but this time around daily and early snowfall in dec ment that a lot of the corn is in bad condition with broken + damaged kernals up to 15pct.

 

Market overall is very quiet on the physical side, with buyers on the sidelines, eating up their stocks. There was a flurry of activity post USDA but it has slowed down considerably. 

 

Everyone is waiting for consumers to come back to the market, the question is when...

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 28

[ Edited ]

roarintiger1,

 

My source in Argentina Monday morning says, "The situation is starting to get very delicate with rain failing to fall. Crops are beginning to suffer. The advantage we (Argentina) has, compared to southern Brazil, in relation to the previous year is that spring left us plenty of water, and the water table in area are less than 50cm deep. So, I do not know how the crops are taking care of this situation but desiring this is very difficult, because with only walk the roads are crops that are good and that is a sign that they are taking that water
In Brazil, the situation is that they are involved in the harvest with excessive rainfall. In the south, too dry weather is causing the farmers to fall behind."

 

And here is his latest map for Argentina's last 15-days. The dark blue areas have received the least amounts, the lighter blue shade indicates not as short on moisture but still very short compared to what's needed. So, the whole country is feeling some level of stress right now.

Argentina Map.png

 

Mike

 

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,602
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 28

Mike, Thanks for the update info and as always.....Great job!

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"