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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,897
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk January 3

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March futures corn contract settled 1 1/2 cents lower at $6.89. The Jan. soybean futures contract finished 2 cents lower at $14.03. March wheat futures ended 1/4 of a cent higher at $7.55 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract ended $0.31 lower at $50.21.  The Jan. soymeal futures contract finished $1.50 per short ton lower at $405.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.36 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points lower.

 

One analysts says that today's market faced too much bearish news.
"Soybeans were lower on the Chinese cancelations of previously purchased U.S. soybeans.  They might buy it back later, but it was negative news today," he says.  
Wheat was trending higher, with no specific reason why, he says.
"But, it is supposed to get pretty cold for U.S. winter wheat in a week or 10 days. And it will be warm before-hand. So, maybe we are playing the winterkill game.  Not hearing demand talk, but there is talk of end user demand around in both corn and wheat today," he says.  
For soybeans, there is not a lot of demand talk.
On Friday, the USDA will release its Weekly Export Sales Report.
"We are expecting another strong weekly export sales report for wheat, at least I am.  Corn and beans need not be strong," he says.
Meanwhile, funds seem to be the sellers in all markets today."

 

Mike

---------

At 1:40pm:

Pre-January 11 Crop Report Estimates are being released. Tomorrow, Informa will release its estimates at 10:30am. We have the first pre-report estimates by Alpari:

 

2012 Crop  Production

Corn = 10.500
Corn Yields = 122.0
Harvest Acres =86.7

Soybeans = 3.100
Soybean Yields= 39.5
Harvested Acres= 75.3


2012-2013 Carryover

Corn= 550
Wheat= 770
Soybeans= 130

 

What say you about the harvested acres number? Too low?

 

Mike

--------


At mid-day:

At mid-day, the March futures corn contract is trading 2 cents lower at $6.88. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 12 cents lower at $13.93. March wheat futures are trading 1 cent lower at $7.54 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.14 lower at $50.38.  The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $5.70 per short ton lower at $401.40.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.07 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.

 

Mike

----------

At the open:

At the open, the March futures corn contract is trading 1 cent lower at $6.89. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 13 cents lower at $13.92. March wheat futures are trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $7.55 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.18 lowerat $50.87.  The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $5.10 per short ton lower at $402.00.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.12 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 30 points lower.

 

Mike

---------

At 8:40am:

Brazil's trade ministry estimates its December soybean exports at 135,000 tons, below a considered weak 259,000 tons in November and way below last December’s 1.47 mmt.

--Also, USDA attache estimated Thursday that Brazil could produce 88 mmt of soybeans this year vs. 65.5 a year ago.
 
At 8am:

CHINA does it again. USDA announces Thursday that the Asian giant canceled 315,000 mt of previously bought U.S. soybeans for 2012-13. I wonder how long this cancelling will last? This can't be good for the market?

 

Mike

---------

At 4:30am:

Early calls:  Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 7-8 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.42 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, after a surge yesterday to start 2013. the U.S. lawmakers passed a bill to avoid the Fiscal Cliff, pushing the stocks higher. But today, it's a pullback in Euro stocks that weigh on U.S. stocks. There is good news out this morning. U.S. and Chinese economic indicators show improvement in these two countries.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks are higher, and Europe's stocks are lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 1,752
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk January 3

Did I miss a Time Change after the first of the year ?? Mike It sez on your posting time 4:30 ???  

 

But anyway I have read some on here thinking that wheat exports may really take off soon , well I read yesterday that India is ready to really pick up the pace on there export's . Even if we are lower on price , shipping would not be much to get it in the mid east or Japan compared to here .

 

Heard yesterday that The basis is + 80 for beans down on the river ( Ohio ) , it looks like they are trying to source beans for the gulf = Miss. will close soon and the Ohio will be the only game to get there .

 

Might be a good time for a basis contract down there --- what do you all think ?

 

Everybody have a good day --- I have to go change the clocks

Veteran Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 1,752
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk January 3

One other thing to watch might be the triple A -- yes the  AAA , they are really coming down HARD on E-15 , they issued a statement about useing E-15 in older cars , that it would void manufacturers engine warranty .

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,897
Registered: ‎05-03-2010

Re: Floor Talk January 3

ECIN,

 

Did you get that clock changed?

 

Yes, India announced yesterday that they will up their wheat exports. With U.S. domestic feed use expected to fall in January's USDA report, maybe the U.S. will have more higher quality wheat to offer the world export market. I see where the U.S. product is very price competitive right now. Maybe the buyers will turn to the U.S. for price and quality?

 

I know the wheat traders in Chicago are scratching their heads, as the market is off $1.50. Yesterday, one floor trader wrote that it's time to take a step back and see what this all means. In his own words: "The January report is coming, and people are not sure what there will be in that round of data.  But they don't want to leave their bare hides exposed to what might happen if we find ourselves all the way back down to last year's levels.  They also realize that the existing open longs on the other side of their shorts likely would rather hold on to them at historically low implied (esp. in the July and Dec.) than sell them out during the first pop they see in premiums.  All in all, the wheat volatility seems to be short term rich and long term cheap, which is probably the trickiest situation to be in as a local.  New paper would seemingly be a buyer of puts and futures at these current flat-price implied levels, which means the locals are going to have to be as agile and responsive as ever."

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,897
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 3

[ Edited ]

C    H    I    N   from  A

a     i     m   a            m

n     g    p   m            e

c     h    o   e             r

e           r    l              i

l            t     y            c

l            s                  a

i

n

g

 

Where did I go wrong here? Did I get this puzzle right?

 

 

Mike

Veteran Contributor
unlgrad
Posts: 92
Registered: ‎06-08-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 3

On older cars, who still has an engine warranty.  Mine expired after 100,000 miles on the Durango, expires after 60,000 miles on my pickup.  So much ado about nothing.

Veteran Advisor
Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 3

The warranty in my pickup expired around 1990.

Veteran Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 1,752
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk January 3

[ Edited ]

Sorry guy's , I read this yesterday and can't remeber the exact year so just posted up -- older cars , but in truth is was more like 2010 or 11 cars , they said there was to much rust in motors from the water made from ethanol.

Veteran Advisor
Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 3

My dad has been running ethanol blend, since it was first available, in the late 1980s, and have yet to have an engine failure of any kind, in any of our gas engines, with the exception of one weed eater, when someone put in straight gas, instead of pre-mix.

My old pickup has been running e-10 since I bought it in 1996 or 97, and the previous owner ran e-10, whenever it was 'cheaper' than regular gas, since it got about the same mileage.

 

I wonder if some of those cars that have engines that are 'rusting' are just used in short trips, and never get warmed up?  I know if you drive your car only sort trips, and never get it warm enough to boil the water out of things, you will have an exhaust system eaten out from the inside, no matter what blend of gas you use, but I do believe it happens sooner with ethanol blended fuel, because more water vapor is produced in the combustion process.
If the engine itself is rusing, it is an oil failure, more than anything.

Veteran Contributor
Kstater85
Posts: 109
Registered: ‎06-28-2012
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Re: Floor Talk January 3

Yesterday the AAA recommended that motorist with vehicles 2012 or older NOT use ethanol blends more than 10%.