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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,098
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk January 30

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March futures corn contract closed 10 cents higher at $7.40. The March soybean futures contract finished 27 cents higher at $14.78. March wheat futures finished 10 cents higher at $7.87 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract finished $0.89 higher at $52.60. The March soymeal futures finished $9.00 per short ton higher at $432.70. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.10 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 50 points lower.

 

Mike

--------

At mid-session:

The March futures corn contract is trading 6 cents higher at $7.36. The March soybean futures contract is trading 24 cents higher at $14.76. March wheat futures are trading 7 cents higher at $7.84 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.66 higher at $52.37. The March soymeal futures are trading $8.80 per short ton higher at $432.50. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.11 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 9 points lower.

 

Mike

----------

At 11:10am:

 

The February USDA Report is coming up on the 8th. Here are some early estimates. What do you think?

 

ALPARI CROP ESTIMATES FOR FEB. 8 USDA REPORT
U.S. CARRYOVERS

                        2013
Corn = 600
Soybeans  = 140
Wheat= 712
WORLD CARRYOVERS

         2013
Corn= 115.50
Soybeans= 59.50
Wheat= 178.20
     South America Crop Production
                2013
ARGENTINA
Corn =26.8
Soybeans = 53.0
BRAZIL
Corn= 70.5
Soybeans = 82.8

 

 

Mike

------------
At the open:

The March futures corn contract is trading 7 cents higher at $7.36. The March soybean futures contract is trading 23 cents higher at $14.75. March wheat futures are trading 4 cents higher at $7.81 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.57 higher at $52.28. The March soymeal futures are trading $1.30 per short ton higher at $421.60. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.07 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 23 points lower.

 

Mike

-----------

At 8:00am:

 

--USDA announces that China bought 175,000 tons of U.S. soybeans Wednesday for 2013-14 delivery.

 

Here is the latest from an Argentinian source on the progress of crops. As of this morning, it looks like the later planted crops face the biggest threat.

 

In his own words:

 

"Here is some Ag Deputy survey information that is flowing.
Data obtained from different producers in different zones. They say that 28% of the surface was seeded with soybean outside the optimal date, with a delay greater than 2 weeks.
 
As you know, the delay in the implementation of low yields, especially for soybeans planted later. It also increases the risk to crops in low autumn temperatures possible, coupled with the possibility of early frost. Late For lots of corn that will be harvested well into the fall and winter, they hamper the work of collection and access to fields.
 
Besides the delay in planting date in the campaign 2012/13 has been lost due to fields planted water excesses.
 
As average lot surveyed, there was a loss of 6.7% of the area planted with soybean by adverse weather.
 
In corn, planted crops completely lost 4.3% reached the surface. It also corresponds to state that 2.2% of the agricultural area of the fields surveyed could not be planted with any crop in the 2012/13.
 
After these shortcomings in the implementation, largely agricultural regions recorded Argentine currently a shortage of moisture can affect crop yields planted later, coming into bloom," he says.

 

Mike

----------

At 7:30am:

Early calls:  Corn is seen 6-8 cents higher, soybeans 18-20cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.58 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen flat to higher, as the U.S. Jobs Report shows 192,000 jobs were created in January vs. the expectations of 175,000. Plus, the GDP is expected to be updated Wednesday. Some more company earnings will be released today as well.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher and Europe's stocks lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 785
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 30

The dryness in Argentina must be the reason for the up tick in bean prices? 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,098
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 30

highyields,

 

That is correct. Plus, prices have pushed through resistance levels and a new bullish leg is forming, technically. The chart rally is creating fund-buying.

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,553
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 30

With all the Chinese buying recently of 13-14 soybeans do they know something that others don't about the S.A. crop?   

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,136
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk January 30

"true breakout"......next bull leg? weak or strong hands buying this morning? think about it.

 

   expanding triangle d leg? spreads are not congruent with "stronger highs" beans or corn?....been sayin' for days ---sell above 1461.....nobody is always correct.....i could be wrong....we'll see it play out...

 

c-x-1

Senior Contributor
425Cat
Posts: 1,512
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 30

If you sell, better run a tight stop. Don't get in front of the train,

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,098
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 30

Brazil Update:

 

On Wednesday, I received this update on the crop growing, harvest and planting situations in Brazil. Notice my questions and the Brazilian source's answers:

 

Agriculture.com: The current crop-growing situation in Brazil. What the current weather is like in the north, central and southern parts of Brazil, according to your contacts there?

 

A: In general a lot of rain at this time, beginning to become a concern in the Cerrado area as it could affect the harvest.

Agriculture.com: What are the yields like coming out of Mato Grosso and how does that compare to normal yields.

 

A: Cerrado looking at 7% yield increases, average 51 sacks per Ha.  In soybeans.  Corn were hurt due to the lack of rain during the cycle, the second crop is beginning to be planted in MT.

Agriculture.com:  Are the trucks getting log-jammed at the ports? How’s the logistics? Whatever you can learn from your Brazilian contacts. It’s a hot topic.  

 

A:  Cost of freight is expensive, the roads are pot-holed and they have a problem with movement given the execess of corn in the last crop especially in the Cerrado.  No problems in the ports reported at this time (it is early).

Agriculture.com:   I’m hearing the government is thinking about taxing soybean exports there. IF they did, what impact would that have on exports, farmers, etc? 

 

A:  We have no news on this but will look into it further.

 

I hope this helps,

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
GoredHusker
Posts: 1,709
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 30

What I've been reading is that early soybean production coming out of Mato Grosso has been disappointing and 2-4 bushels per acre less than last year.  Am I getting faulty information? 

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,136
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk January 30

yep, cat.........looks like train may have left.....good call......hope to get a confirmation with open interest,

 

on the daily's, been saying we've begun an impulse, but during consolodations I can become too much like the Rainman counting (attempting, that is) waves. Did you want to compare charts - love to see your 22 day count, i'd send you chart just have to do it on email. thanks,

 

c-x-1

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,011
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk January 30

Hey Gored -- is this what you have been reading ? 

 

In Brazil, the harvest is slowly advancing around daily showers. A lower yield trend is being reported in Mato Grosso (largest production state) which has some traders wondering if Brazil's 2013 soy crop will exceed 80 MMTs

 

If so - I think from where we got this , is there  probably in the know = good info .

 

Tiger , they may ! But then again they may be just covering there base's for needs - better to have plenty than run out , they can always cancel .