01-05-2012 06:56 AM - edited 01-05-2012 02:54 PM
At the close:
The March corn futures closed 15 cents lower at $6.43 1/2. The March soybean contract settled 21 cents lower at $12.09. The March wheat futures ended 20 3/4 cents lower at $6.29 1/4. The March soymeal futures closed $7.40 per short ton lower at $313.20. The March soyoil futures settled $0.97 lower at $52.06.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.53 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 5 points.
A wheat options trader says, "Maybe last week's runup came just a bit too early for wheat options and futures traders, because there simply isn't enough relevant news and/or reason to extend or sustain those levels as we essentially tread water ahead of the Jan. 12th report."
The March corn futures are trading 13 cents lower at $6.45 1/2. The March soybean contract is trading 16 3/4 cents lower at $12.13 1/4. The March wheat futures are trading 17 cents lower at $6.33. The March soymeal futures are trading $5.60 per short ton lower at $315.00. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.78 lower at $52.25.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.60 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 48 points.
Rain chances increase for the dry areas of South America next week. That is taking the brawny out of the bulls. A strong U.S. Dollar is causing a broad-based commodity sell off. And, some profit-taking from the recent rally is occurring.
One analyst says, "says the markets are being sold off today. "Spec selling, maybe some farm selling, mostly US dollar based. Also, some forecasts for some showers in SA are pressuring the markets. But, I think most of this is due to the stronger dollar and EU fears again."
At the open:
The March corn futures opened 8 cents lower at $6.58 1/2. The March soybean contract opened 12 cents lower at $12.18. The March wheat futures opened 9 3/4 cents lower at $6.40 1/4. The March soymeal futures opened $4.30 per short ton lower at $316.30. The March soyoil futures opened $0.57 lower at $52.47.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.51 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 79 points.
News & notes:
--Some analysts say if rain keeps missing the dry areas of Argentina, corn demand shifts to the U.S.
--Favorable weather is boosting Ukraine's wheat crop prospects.
--Fertilizer prices are starting to rebound, Mosaic Co. says. I didn't know they dropped much, I guess.
--Monsanto says it is making more money in South America, as those farmers plant an increasing amount of GMO seed.
--Weekly Export Sales will be released tomorrow, due to the New Year Holiday.
--SA sources say: In Argentina, farmers would lose the equivalent of 2.0mm tons, each passing week, without rains.
Brazil's losses are harder to read due to various soil types and weather patterns. It's a hard guess. But, I would be highly surprised if they harvest 70 mln tons.
In Paraguay , as it is a more defined crop area, you can count
already 20-25% of the soy crop lost.
Early calls: Corn 4-5 cents lower, soybeans 9-11 cents lower, and wheat 6-8 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.35 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading weaker with all eyes on this morning's U.S. Jobless Claims Report.
What say you?
More in a minute,
01-05-2012 07:56 AM - edited 01-05-2012 07:58 AM
Allendale Inc. sent us their USDA report estimates for next Thursday. What do you think?
ANNUAL PRODUCTION USDA USDA-Dec ALDL Actual
million bushels 10/11 11/12 11/12 01/12/12
Corn 12447 12310 12328
Soybeans 3329 3046 3048
YIELDS USDA USDA-Dec ALDL Actual
per bushel 10/11 11/12 11/12 01/12/12
Corn 152.82 146.66 146.51
Soybeans 43.46 41.34 41.38
US ENDING STOCKS USDA USDA-Dec ALDL Actual
million bushels 10/11 11/12 11/12 01/12/12
US Corn 1128 848 821
US Beans 215 230 233
US Wheat 862 878 851
WORLD ENDING STOCKS USDA USDA-Dec ALDL Actual
million tonnes 10/11 11/12 11/12 01/12/12
World Corn 128.27 127.19 124.20
World Soybeans 68.43 63.56 63.02
World Wheat 199.75 208.52 207.80
QTRLY GRAIN STOCKS USDA USDA-Sep ALDL Actual
million bushels Dec 1, 2010 Sep 1, 2011 Dec 1, 2011 01/12/12
Corn 10057 1128 9317
Beans 2278 215 2577
Wheat 1933 2150 1904
WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS USDA USDA-Dec ALDL Actual
million acres 11/12 11/12 12/13 01/12/12
All Winter 40.65 42.85
HRW 28.48 29.74
SRW 8.56 8.36
White 3.70 3.75
01-05-2012 08:57 AM
Brazil January 5th
- As of Jan 4th , Yields on the first harversted soybean has resulted in collecting 1,250 to 2,000 kgs/ha Vs the ussual avg of 3,000 kg/ha.
- A team from the Foundation for Support of Agricultural Research of Mato Grosso in the municipality of Primavera do Leste found the second outbreak of rust in soy plants , which is considered a major disease of soybean production. This is the second outbreak of the disease identified in the state. The first was found in Sinop, distant 503 km from the capital.
As it has been found earlier than ussual , agronomists warned farmers than taking care of it should be doubled.
Usually the weather in January and February is very favorable for the development and dissemination of the fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi, cause of soybean rust.
Officially in this season it has detected 19 outbreaks in Brazil, being eleven in Parana, Goias four, two in Mato Grosso.
Monitoring the crop is one of the ways to control the disease and preventive treatment with fungicides is recommended in the flowering phase.
Picture from a field in Primavera , MG do norte
Climate experts predict unfavorable trends in the coming days in the most affected areas of the core crop production areas in the north-central Buenos Aires, and the center-south-east provinces of Cordoba and Santa Fe. The situation remains critical.
Some parts of the Pampas, as Chabas, Santa Fe, or in the locality of San Antonio de Areco and Rojas , you have the worst drought in 40 years.
Picture from a catlle ranch taken Jan 3rd in San Antonio de Areco
Despite the seriousness of the phenomenon due to technology applied to crops , this drought does not become a total disaster. In corn the loss is already measured at 20% as of today s conditions , causing an impact of abt $ 800 mln in losses to farmers in those areas. Most of them have required government asssistance already.
It should be noted that Cordoba is the main producing province of both crops, whith 4.8 million hectares of the ttl 18.6 million intended for planting in the country with soybeans and 1.4 million has of corn on a national total of 3,6 million hectares.
It would be very hard to find many chances that the average yield of soybean exceed 2.3 tons per hectare ( a loss of 23%) in Cordoba province.
01-05-2012 09:34 AM
Allendale's numbers are pretty generic....... IMO, Corn and bean yields are too high.....total production is too high.....demand is too low....ending stocks are too high. There, how's that for being bullish?
As far as the pictures and news out of SA.....it appears far more devastating than the numbers that the traders are trading.