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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,038
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk January 5

[ Edited ]

VIDEO: Closing Grain Market Commentary

 

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At the close:

The March corn futures closed 15 cents lower at $6.43 1/2. The March soybean contract settled 21 cents lower at $12.09. The March wheat futures ended 20 3/4 cents lower at $6.29 1/4. The March soymeal futures closed $7.40 per short ton lower at $313.20. The March soyoil futures settled $0.97 lower at $52.06.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.53 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 5 points.

 

A wheat options trader says, "Maybe last week's runup came just a bit too early for wheat options and futures traders, because there simply isn't enough relevant news and/or reason to extend or sustain those levels as we essentially tread water ahead of the Jan. 12th report."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The March corn futures are trading 13 cents lower at $6.45 1/2. The March soybean contract is trading 16 3/4 cents lower at $12.13 1/4. The March wheat futures are trading 17 cents lower at $6.33. The March soymeal futures are trading $5.60 per short ton lower at $315.00. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.78 lower at $52.25.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.60 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 48 points.

 

Rain chances increase for the dry areas of South America next week. That is taking the brawny out of the bulls. A strong U.S. Dollar is causing a broad-based commodity sell off. And, some profit-taking from the recent rally is occurring.

 

One analyst says, "says the markets are being sold off today. "Spec selling, maybe some farm selling, mostly US dollar based. Also, some forecasts for some showers in SA are pressuring the markets. But, I think most of this is due to the stronger dollar and EU fears again."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The March corn futures opened 8 cents lower at $6.58 1/2. The March soybean contract opened 12 cents lower at $12.18. The March wheat futures opened 9 3/4 cents lower at $6.40 1/4. The March soymeal futures opened $4.30 per short ton lower at $316.30. The March soyoil futures opened $0.57 lower at $52.47.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.51 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 79 points.

 

Mike

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At 7:10am:

News & notes:

--Some analysts say if rain keeps missing the dry areas of Argentina, corn demand shifts to the U.S.

--Favorable weather is boosting Ukraine's wheat crop prospects.

--Fertilizer prices are starting to rebound, Mosaic Co. says. I didn't know they dropped much, I guess.

--Monsanto says it is making more money in South America, as those farmers plant an increasing amount of GMO seed.

--Weekly Export Sales will be released tomorrow, due to the New Year Holiday.

--SA sources say: In Argentina, farmers would lose the equivalent of 2.0mm tons, each passing week, without rains.
Brazil's losses are harder to read due to various soil types and weather patterns. It's a hard guess. But, I would be highly surprised if they harvest 70 mln tons.
In Paraguay , as it is a more defined crop area, you can count 
already 20-25% of the soy crop lost.

 

Mike

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At 6:55am:

Early calls: Corn 4-5 cents lower, soybeans 9-11 cents lower, and wheat 6-8 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.35 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading weaker with all eyes on this morning's U.S. Jobless Claims Report.

World Markets=Lower.

 

What say you?

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,038
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 5

[ Edited ]

Allendale Inc. sent us their USDA report estimates for next Thursday. What do you think?
 
ANNUAL PRODUCTION          USDA        USDA-Dec      ALDL       Actual    
million bushels                          10/11          11/12             11/12    01/12/12
Corn                                         12447          12310          12328
Soybeans                                 3329           3046             3048
 
YIELDS                     USDA        USDA-Dec        ALDL        Actual    
per bushel                10/11          11/12               11/12       01/12/12
Corn                      152.82         146.66              146.51
Soybeans                  43.46          41.34             41.38
 
US ENDING STOCKS          USDA          USDA-Dec      ALDL     Actual
million bushels                      10/11            11/12              11/12   01/12/12
US Corn                                1128             848                 821
US Beans                              215             230                  233
US Wheat                              862             878                 851
 
WORLD ENDING STOCKS       USDA          USDA-Dec       ALDL      Actual
million tonnes                              10/11           11/12             11/12            01/12/12
World Corn                                 128.27          127.19          124.20
World Soybeans                         68.43             63.56            63.02
World Wheat                              199.75            208.52         207.80
 
QTRLY GRAIN STOCKS        USDA          USDA-Sep         ALDL         Actual
million bushels                  Dec 1, 2010       Sep 1, 2011    Dec 1, 2011      01/12/12
Corn                                  10057                  1128                9317        
Beans                                2278                    215                  2577
Wheat                               1933                    2150                1904        
 
WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS    USDA           USDA-Dec        ALDL         Actual
million acres                                11/12             11/12               12/13       01/12/12
All Winter                                    40.65               42.85          
HRW                                          28.48                29.74        
SRW                                          8.56                  8.36        
White                                         3.70                  3.75
 

Frequent Contributor
agmr
Posts: 58
Registered: ‎12-21-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 5

Brazil January 5th

-       As of  Jan 4th ,  Yields on the first harversted soybean has resulted in collecting 1,250 to 2,000 kgs/ha Vs the ussual avg of 3,000 kg/ha.

-       A team from the Foundation for Support of Agricultural Research of Mato Grosso  in the municipality of Primavera do Leste found the second  outbreak of rust in soy plants , which is considered a major disease of soybean production. This is the second outbreak of the disease identified in the state. The first was found in Sinop, distant 503 km from the capital.
As it has been found earlier than ussual , agronomists warned farmers than taking care of it  should be doubled.
Usually the weather in January and February is very favorable for the development and dissemination of the fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi, cause of soybean rust.
Officially in  this season it has  detected 19 outbreaks in Brazil, being eleven in Parana, Goias four, two in Mato Grosso.
Monitoring the crop is one of the ways to control the disease and preventive treatment with fungicides is recommended in the flowering phase.

 

Picture from a field in Primavera , MG do norte


 

Argentina

Jan 5th
Climate experts predict unfavorable trends in the coming days in the most affected areas of the core crop production areas in the north-central Buenos Aires, and the center-south-east provinces of Cordoba and Santa Fe. The situation remains  critical.

Some parts of the Pampas, as Chabas, Santa Fe, or in the locality of San Antonio de Areco and Rojas , you have  the worst drought in 40 years.

 

Picture from a catlle ranch taken Jan 3rd in San Antonio de Areco

sequia-Cordoba.jpg

 
Despite the seriousness of the phenomenon  due to technology applied to crops , this drought  does not become a total disaster. In corn the loss is already measured at 20% as of today s conditions , causing an impact of abt $ 800 mln in losses to farmers in those areas. Most of them have required government asssistance already.


It should be noted that Cordoba is the main producing province of both crops, whith 4.8 million hectares of the ttl 18.6 million intended for planting in the country with soybeans and 1.4 million has of corn on a national total of 3,6 million hectares.

It would be very hard to find many chances that the average yield of soybean exceed 2.3 tons per hectare ( a loss of 23%) in Cordoba province.

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,499
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 5

Allendale's numbers are pretty generic....... IMO,   Corn and bean yields are too high.....total production is too high.....demand is too low....ending stocks are too high.    There, how's that for being bullish?

 

As far as the pictures and news out of SA.....it appears far more devastating than the numbers that the traders are trading.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Frequent Contributor
agmr
Posts: 58
Registered: ‎12-21-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk January 5

Ref Brazil , clarification :

the yields on the soy harvest reported are the ones on the west-south west of the Parana State.