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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk January 6

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The March corn futures closed unchanged at $6.43 1/2. The March soybean contract finished 12 1/2 cents lower at $11.96 1/2. The March wheat futures finished 4 1/2 cents lower at $6.24 3/4. The March soymeal futures closed $0.80 per short ton lower at $312.40. The March soyoil futures endede $0.94 lower at $51.12. 



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.30 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 42 points.

 

Informa lowers its 2011 corn and soybean crop size estimates:

Corn=12.34 bill. bushels, 147 bu./acre

Soybeans=3.08 bill. bushels, 41.8 bu./acre

 

World

For Brazil, soybean production was lowered to 72.0 mmt, 1.6 mmt below its previous estimate. Argentina's soybean output dropped 1.0 mmt to 51.0 mmt.

 

Mike

-----------

At mid-session:

The March corn futures are trading 2 1/2 cents higher at $6.45 3/4. The March soybean contract is trading 1 1/2 cents lower at $12.07 1/2. The March wheat futures are trading 3/4 of a cent higher at $6.30. The March soymeal futures are trading $0.90 per short ton higher at $314.10. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.25 lower at $51.81. 



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.65 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 20 points.

 

Mike

-------

At the open:

 

Corn, soybeans and wheat all open 3-5 cents higher Friday.

 

Mike

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At 7:35am:

USDA released bearish Export Sales Friday.

Corn=306,000 metric tons.

Soybeans=281,300 mt

Wheat=168,100 mt.

Soymeal=144,400 mt.

Soyoil=7,300 mt.

 

For corn, wheat and soybeans, the trade expected sales of 450,000 mt for each.

 

Separately, Egypt bought 240,000 metric tons of wheat from Ukraine, France, Russia.

 

Mike

--------

At 7:20am:

Today, Informa will release its final 2011 corn and soybean production estimates
and winter wheat seeding outlook. The trade expects bigger numbers than previous estimates.

 

Mike

--------

At 7am:

The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report will be released at 7:30am CST. The trade estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat are 450,000 metric tons each.

 

Mike

----------

At 6:35am:

Early calls: Corn 4-5 cents higher, soybeans 6-8 cents higher, and wheat 6-8 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.40 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading stronger with all eyes on the December U.S. Jobs Report to be released this morning.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific lower and Europe stocks are higher.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk January 6

[ Edited ]

An independent commodity broker in Paraguay told me this morning that more proof of crop loss is coming in daily. "One of the biggest producers of Paraguay has confirmed that he is already harvesting soybeans, near border with Brazil, and the yield is around 2 metric tonnes per hectare, down from 3 tonnes last year," he says. So he's down about 34-36 bu./acre this year.

 

Correction: Earlier, I had reported the Paraguayan farmer was corn harvesting. He's actually harvesting soybeans. The corn crop is still working its way through pollination. Sorry for any inconveniences this caused.

 

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,263
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 6

Mike,

Seems pretty early,  or he is in the longer growing season region in the north?

sw
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk January 6

sw,

My bad. The Paraguayan farmer is harvesting soybeans not corn. See what happens when you try to report before having coffee?

 

Mike

Frequent Contributor
agmr
Posts: 58
Registered: ‎12-21-2011

Re: Floor Talk January 6

Jan 6th

The county of Pergamino , north 220kms from BsAs capital of Arg , is suffering the worst drought in 46 years. This county is known for having the highest yields ( nationally) of  grain-soy crops due to its exceptional soils  and location. It is part of what is called Pampa Humeda ( "humid-pampas" ?? ) . Its very well known that all this region is suffering dryness, but having this county in such dire state is not common to see.

Latest survey from the National Weather service known yesterday says that sub-soil moisture in the afected area ,  northern  BsAs , southern Santa Fe and eastarn-center Cordoba , is 50% lower than during the drought of 2008-09 . That yr corn and soy crops yielded  abt 30 to 40 %  lower.

 

 

Pictures taken yesterday in Pergamino below.

 

sequia-pergamino.jpgpergamino.jpg

 

 

 

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,508
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk January 6

agmr,    Is there a good chance of rain in that area coming in the next several days?  According to some market info I recieved yesterday, it appeared to have a good rain event down there in the forcast.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,207
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

New Models..........

have taken most of the rain out............the euro model was already dry.........the GFS model shifted to match euro.........

 

drought is real, said that a week ago..........

 

as for macros............then a report..........then macros...........

 

who knows..........

Frequent Contributor
agmr
Posts: 58
Registered: ‎12-21-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk January 6

the forecasts are for rains into the area of abt 10-25mm monday-tuesday.

but having seen wht we saw , it has to rain well ..... and keep raining.... or it would just be like a drop in the sand.... dont know if this is just a one-time event or a change in weather pattern.

 

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,207
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Marketeye........as if....

[ Edited ]

we didnt have enough on our plates with macros, 12th, SA, and S/D..............what do traders think about this Iran deal.........its starting to become a little more than a thorn...........we know oil will spike very quickly and might stay there...........now what does an election year have to do with our response..........what about grains, usually stuff like this tanks em, but with ethanol now tieing things to energy????????????

 

which way and why?????????

 

N Korea never concerned me much, China is too big and too close to let things get out of hand.............Iran bothers me..........if we start flinging pooh with them ..............its on...........you can gaurantee we will not screw around with them, it will be balls to the wall missile and air strikes, likely from others as well.............

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Marketeye........as if....

I think that would be called a "Black Swan" event for the markets. Let me snoop around a bit to get a feel on Iran. Personally, I think that dynamic would throw a lot of things into panic. You're right though, we really don't need anything else to be shaking up these markets. Europe's crisis is plenty.

 

Mike