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01-06-2012 06:41 AM - edited 01-06-2012 02:17 PM
At the close:
The March corn futures closed unchanged at $6.43 1/2. The March soybean contract finished 12 1/2 cents lower at $11.96 1/2. The March wheat futures finished 4 1/2 cents lower at $6.24 3/4. The March soymeal futures closed $0.80 per short ton lower at $312.40. The March soyoil futures endede $0.94 lower at $51.12.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.30 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 42 points.
Informa lowers its 2011 corn and soybean crop size estimates:
Corn=12.34 bill. bushels, 147 bu./acre
Soybeans=3.08 bill. bushels, 41.8 bu./acre
For Brazil, soybean production was lowered to 72.0 mmt, 1.6 mmt below its previous estimate. Argentina's soybean output dropped 1.0 mmt to 51.0 mmt.
The March corn futures are trading 2 1/2 cents higher at $6.45 3/4. The March soybean contract is trading 1 1/2 cents lower at $12.07 1/2. The March wheat futures are trading 3/4 of a cent higher at $6.30. The March soymeal futures are trading $0.90 per short ton higher at $314.10. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.25 lower at $51.81.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.65 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 20 points.
At the open:
Corn, soybeans and wheat all open 3-5 cents higher Friday.
USDA released bearish Export Sales Friday.
Corn=306,000 metric tons.
For corn, wheat and soybeans, the trade expected sales of 450,000 mt for each.
Separately, Egypt bought 240,000 metric tons of wheat from Ukraine, France, Russia.
Today, Informa will release its final 2011 corn and soybean production estimates
and winter wheat seeding outlook. The trade expects bigger numbers than previous estimates.
The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report will be released at 7:30am CST. The trade estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat are 450,000 metric tons each.
Early calls: Corn 4-5 cents higher, soybeans 6-8 cents higher, and wheat 6-8 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.40 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading stronger with all eyes on the December U.S. Jobs Report to be released this morning.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific lower and Europe stocks are higher.
More in a minute,
01-06-2012 06:57 AM - edited 01-06-2012 08:02 AM
An independent commodity broker in Paraguay told me this morning that more proof of crop loss is coming in daily. "One of the biggest producers of Paraguay has confirmed that he is already harvesting soybeans, near border with Brazil, and the yield is around 2 metric tonnes per hectare, down from 3 tonnes last year," he says. So he's down about 34-36 bu./acre this year.
Correction: Earlier, I had reported the Paraguayan farmer was corn harvesting. He's actually harvesting soybeans. The corn crop is still working its way through pollination. Sorry for any inconveniences this caused.
01-06-2012 08:17 AM
The county of Pergamino , north 220kms from BsAs capital of Arg , is suffering the worst drought in 46 years. This county is known for having the highest yields ( nationally) of grain-soy crops due to its exceptional soils and location. It is part of what is called Pampa Humeda ( "humid-pampas" ?? ) . Its very well known that all this region is suffering dryness, but having this county in such dire state is not common to see.
Latest survey from the National Weather service known yesterday says that sub-soil moisture in the afected area , northern BsAs , southern Santa Fe and eastarn-center Cordoba , is 50% lower than during the drought of 2008-09 . That yr corn and soy crops yielded abt 30 to 40 % lower.
Pictures taken yesterday in Pergamino below.
01-06-2012 09:04 AM
agmr, Is there a good chance of rain in that area coming in the next several days? According to some market info I recieved yesterday, it appeared to have a good rain event down there in the forcast.
01-06-2012 09:14 AM
have taken most of the rain out............the euro model was already dry.........the GFS model shifted to match euro.........
drought is real, said that a week ago..........
as for macros............then a report..........then macros...........
01-06-2012 09:16 AM
the forecasts are for rains into the area of abt 10-25mm monday-tuesday.
but having seen wht we saw , it has to rain well ..... and keep raining.... or it would just be like a drop in the sand.... dont know if this is just a one-time event or a change in weather pattern.
01-06-2012 10:39 AM - edited 01-06-2012 10:42 AM
we didnt have enough on our plates with macros, 12th, SA, and S/D..............what do traders think about this Iran deal.........its starting to become a little more than a thorn...........we know oil will spike very quickly and might stay there...........now what does an election year have to do with our response..........what about grains, usually stuff like this tanks em, but with ethanol now tieing things to energy????????????
which way and why?????????
N Korea never concerned me much, China is too big and too close to let things get out of hand.............Iran bothers me..........if we start flinging pooh with them ..............its on...........you can gaurantee we will not screw around with them, it will be balls to the wall missile and air strikes, likely from others as well.............
01-06-2012 11:20 AM
I think that would be called a "Black Swan" event for the markets. Let me snoop around a bit to get a feel on Iran. Personally, I think that dynamic would throw a lot of things into panic. You're right though, we really don't need anything else to be shaking up these markets. Europe's crisis is plenty.