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01-07-2013 06:44 AM - edited 01-07-2013 03:56 PM
VIDEO: Big USDA Report Friday
I hope this information helps folks as they try to frame up their minds ahead of Friday's Report.
At the close:
The March futures corn contract settled 5 cents higher at $6.85. The Jan. soybean futures contract finished 21 cents higher at $14.10. March wheat futures finished 4 cents higher at $7.51 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.31 higher at $49.73. The January soymeal futures contract settled $10.30 at $408.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.11 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 47 points lower.
One analyst is still on the fence a bit, whether to be bearish or bullish on this Friday's report. But, he is leaning bullish. He says, "Not sure, probably a little bullish. I would have been a little negative on production as I felt like things came out a touch better than the trade, but the Informa ideas were a lot higher than what I had in mind. Plus, I think the demand will hold pretty well and is a reason to own things after the recent selling."
The March futures corn contract is trading 2 cents higher at $6.82. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 6 cents higher at $13.95. March wheat futures are trading 1 cent higher at $7.49 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.70 lower at $49.35.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.09 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 81 points lower.
One analyst says, says that today's market action has much to do with a new week as anything.
"We had some corn demand (100,000 tons to 'unknown') and that helped, but it is about time. Otherwise, nothing really all that bullish to talk about as SA weather seems to continue to improve and we got some chances for rain in the Great Plains."
Some spec and commercial buying is occurring, after the big price break. Of course, spec-selling is showing up too.
"End users may want to get some coverage, via options, to protect themselves in case the government gives us a bullish report Friday," he says.
At the open:
The March futures corn contract is trading 6 cents higherat $6.86. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 7 cents higher at $13.96. March wheat futures are trading 7 cents higher at $7.54 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.23 higher at $50.13.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.34 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 59 points lower.
Hey, it's going to snow! USDA announces that 102,000 tons of U.S. corn was sold Monday to an 'unknown' buyer for 2012-13 delivery.
Analysts say that U.S. corn prices are competitive with Brazil, Ukraine corn since June. This shoud help secure more export sales, ahead of Friday's USDA January Report.
Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 6-8 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.45 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, ahead of U.S. company earnings season next week and debate on the U.S. debt ceiling.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks are lower, and Europe's stocks are lower.
More in a minute,
01-07-2013 09:43 AM - edited 01-07-2013 09:44 AM
Are barges and trains with grain going out of the country going to meet, pass, and wave at trains and barges coming into this country with grain?
Fireworks to follow after the game.
01-07-2013 10:01 AM
Looking over the export numbers for corn and was wondering about the 50 to 150 thousand metric tonnes that is below expectations each week. How should a fellow look at this. Is this demand that we can assume will eventually come out of the US supply or have these orders been filled by some other source. Have corn exports for other countries increased to the same degree the US exports have decreased. If this is the case I would not call it demand destruction.
01-07-2013 10:51 AM
It's a great question. And I do have some information coming up on this report. I'm preparing it now. Long story short, I'm told Dec. 1 Stocks will dominate this report.
We'll talk about it.
01-07-2013 11:54 AM
Allendale Inc. analysts wrote this in their weekly letter to customers Friday: "End users may want to get some coverage via options to protect themselves in case the government give us a bullish report."
What do you think? Will this report be bullish?
Thanks for sharing,
01-07-2013 12:46 PM - edited 01-07-2013 12:48 PM
Mike, have you heard any actual number est. for corn stocks? from Allendale,etc.
geez the only # i heard was Gulke's agweb commentary from Fri....was 8.1-8.2 range...that's low by historical standards...w/ last years Jan revealing around 9.9 B stocks, corn traded between $6.00-$6.75 until Mar stocks. we traded to $6.80 Fri
just my broad perspective, but geez, anything below 8.5 seems pretty darn supportive. i guess i'm in a geez kinda mood
01-07-2013 01:24 PM
I just spoke with a firm's analyst that sees Dec. 1 Stocks coming in around 8.105 billion bushels. Anything above that is going to make the report bearish, anything below that number bullish. It is being seen as the most important figure Friday.
What do you think of his estimate? Too low, too high, or right on?