01-08-2013 05:29 AM - edited 01-08-2013 02:29 PM
Three topics three videos
At the close:
The March futures corn contract closed 3 cents higher at $6.88. The Jan. soybean futures contract settled 3 cents higher at $14.13. March wheat futures finished 1 cent lower at $7.50 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract finished $0.40 lower at $49.10. The January soymeal futures contract ended $2.10 higher at $410.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.05 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 51 points lower.
One analyst says that today's action reflects the recently released industry estimates for Friday's USDA Crop report.
Corn is higher, as estimates suggest production will decline 100 million bushels. Wheat is up slightly, as ending stocks are expected to decline 11 million bushels even as production estimates are higher. Beans are marginally lower, with production expected to show a 28 million bushel increase with ending stocks up 5 m.b," he says.
It's all small lot positioning and posturing prior Friday's release, he says.
"Look for more widely traded ranges Wednesday and Thursday, as this report is known for surprises. Corn has had a limit move 5 of last 6 years. This will allow for more long and short liquidation on the fear of a report surprise," he says. .
The March futures corn contract is trading 6 cents higher at $6.91. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 1 cent lower at $14.09. March wheat futures are trading 5 cents higher at $7.57 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.24 lower at $49.26. The January soymeal futures contract is trading $0.10 lower at $408.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.23 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 65 points lower.
Separately, for December 2012, Brazil's corn exports totaled 2.79 million tons, down 28% from November's record level, according to the Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC). For 2012, Brazil exported 19.79 million tons of grain, 108.7% more than in 2011. The crop failure in the U.S. favored Brazilian shipments.
In early trading:
The March futures corn contract is trading 4 cents higherat $6.90. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 3 cents higher at $14.14. March wheat futures are trading 3 cents higher at $7.54 per bushel. The Jan. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.24 lower at $49.26.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.20 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 63 points lower.
--China's January soybean imports are seen at 4.6 million tons vs. 5.4 million in December, according to the China National Grain & Oils Information Center, the Dow Jones Newswire reports Tuesday.
--A South Korea buyer purchased 137,000 tons of optional-origin corn Tuesday. But, the U.S. is not one of those optional origins. Plus, S. Korea has purchased 315,000 tons of corn since Friday, and all from South America, according to the Dow Jones Newswire.
Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 6-8 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.22 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, ahead of U.S. company earnings like Monsanto and others.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks are lower, and Europe's stocks are higher.
More in a minute,
01-08-2013 06:38 AM
You're welcome. I agree. Roy just has a 'simple man' way of explaining the 'inside baseball' aspects of the grain market. I could talk with him all day.
I appreciate the feedback.
01-08-2013 07:08 AM - edited 01-08-2013 07:15 AM
You are right about one thing. Roy is a "simple man". Anyone relying upon USDA comic books and actually believe that ending stocks, exports, or grain sales mean anything, and still utilize anachronistic moldy chart data as their crystal ball are indeed "simple". We all know, that there are absolutely no figures in these reports that will not be revised next month, so these reports are for the flash traders, gamblers, and speculators not true hedgers or for those who hold grain.
I find it amusing that there is now a surplus of beans and corn in the world and that because a few loads of Argentine corn hit US Shores everyone is concerned and can see the end of the world from their door step. What a F=cking joke! I listened to Roy, I learned nothing but a regurgitation of what is provided us before each crop report.
Because there is no integrity in any information coming from any government agency and there are no longer any rules governing the publication of front running "bets" by those who publish reports believing they actually know something, when they have little at risk, and hold no grain. These people are about as reliable as a "junkie"s" opinion standing on a corner in Los Angeles on this issue.
I think farmers and those who now hold the grain unpriced, are the ones that know the truth, and they ain't selling. Who really gives a rats ass about the Mississippi River, we have grain trains headed for Baton Rouge, and soon to the Columbia River port, which will export directly to the far east, our grain will get exported. I think it is time to limit the reports of Misinforma, and all the other no nothings who consistently gets it wrong. Even a Moron is right half the time.
The Job of USDA is to drive down the market, to keep a cheap food policy and other costs which will be set for crop insurance over the next few months. I mean . . . Bloomberg announced this morning that food costs in the world fell last year. How does that happen if grain prices are so high. Could it be that the diet is being shifted back to a cup of rice and a fish head as the daily meal?
When ever anyone who owns grain sitting in their bins, seeks the advice of another whose job is to churn accounts to earn commissions there is something wrong. Because if you are smart enough to raise it, harvest it and bin it, and then sell it, and you have been doing this and still survive, then why in the hell would you be calling a nimrod with an ISU degree who has no skin in the game and ask him for advice.
The last I heard all the talk about Brazil burying the U.S. is just talk! We hear it every year, they have shipping problems (regardless of what the talking heads are preaching) the REAL is in fact increasing in value, not being watered down like the Dollar is. As far as China is concerned,they are a communist dictatorship, (something that the U.S. is looking like more and more everyday) well, they will either purchase the food they need or their people or they will lose their power.
So the USDA Comic Book will be just that and is probably the most viewed "Joke book" in this country by farmers. I think it is the speculators, gamblers, and "junkies" who place credibility in this "rag" they call a report. Better get to your brokers office and let him hold your hand when the report comes out. I have never witnessed such "insecurity" in Agriculture as I have been witnessing on these blogs.
Here we have millionaire farmers, who own the production assets and the production, relying upon gamblers to run their operations, hell, why don't you boys just call Vegas and see what the "odds makers" say! Give me a break! Pass the popcorn and get me another Corona. Adios Amigos. John
01-08-2013 07:52 AM
Mike..... IMO...... Faust is just expressing the tension that is building for this upcoming report.....
There will be a GIANT release of pressure come Friday..... Nobody knows as to what direction it is going......p-oed
01-08-2013 08:10 AM
Roy has some interesting comments, If I heard right 6 out of the last 9 stocks where under trade guesses. Odds are with me that corn will go higher I guess. With the basis as tight as it is back east Can corn go lower. I really don't know. and I looked at NOAA's long range weather for next year. Doesn't look good for trend line yields, with higher then normal temps around the country.