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07-10-2013 06:09 AM - edited 07-10-2013 01:41 PM
At the close:
The Sept. futures corn contract settled 2 cents higher at $5.53. New-crop Dec. corn futures ended 1 cent lower at $5.21. The Aug. soybean futures contract finished 3cents lower at $14.64, new-crop Nov. soybeans closed 8 cents higher at $12.84. Sept. wheat futures settled 2 cents higher at $6.79 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures closed $0.80 short ton higher at $449.70. The Aug. soyoil futures closed unchanged at $47.02.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.87 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 9 points higher.
The Sept. futures corn contract is trading 4 cents higher at $5.55. New-crop Dec. corn futures are trading 2 cents higherat $5.23. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 10 cents higher at $14.78, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 16 cents higher at $12.92. Sept. wheat futures are trading 1 cent higher at $6.78 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures are trading $5.60 short ton higher at $454.50. The Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.03 higher at $47.05.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.06 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 26 points lower.
Ken Smithmier, The Hightower Report grain analyst, says the market is using weather to rally.
"The fear of detrimental weather is in place, technical action favors follow through, and the prospects of high temps into pollination leaves the path of least resistance pointing upward for corn," Smithmier says.
Smithmier adds, "With the added element of a recent spec short positioning, that could mean a September corn rally back into the early June consolidation zone bound by $5.66 to $6.00."
Here's the latest on U.S. ethanol production, according to the Renewable Fuels Association:
According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 881,000 barrels per day (b/d) — or 37.00 million gallons daily. That is up 18,000 b/d from the week before. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 875,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 13.41 billion gallons.
Stocks of ethanol stood at 15.7 million barrels. That is a 1.8% increase from last week.
Imports of ethanol were 25,000 barrels/day, up from last week.
At the open:
The Sept. futures corn contract opened 1 cent lower at $5.50. New-crop Dec. corn futures opened 1 cent lower at $5.20. The Aug. soybean futures contract opened 1 cent lower at $14.67, new-crop Nov. soybeans opened 3 cents higher at $12.79. Sept. wheat futures started 2 cents lower at $6.75 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures opened $0.20 short ton higher at $448.70. The Aug. soyoil futures opened $0.07 lower at $46.95.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.85 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points higher.
--USDA announces Wednesday that China bought 120,000 tons of U.S. corn for 2013-14 delivery.
Even China must think tomorrow's WASDE Report will be bullish?
Jeff Coleman, The Trean Group and CME Group floor trader, says the market is prepping itself ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report.
"December corn futures traded in a 10.25 cent range, last night, on heavy volume, as weather is really becoming a factor as well as traders squaring up positions ahead of tomorrow’s 11:00 AM CST release of the USDA WASDE report. The same factors are affecting the soybean complex as November soybean futures also experienced heavy volume traded in a 13.5 cent range and are trading 3 cents higher near the close."
Early calls: Corn is seen 5-7 cents higher (old-crop), soybeans 5-7 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 3-5 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 5-7 cents higher and soybeans are seen 2-4 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.26 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen lower, ahead of the Fed minutes being released this afternoon. Many believe the minutes will indicate when the Fed will slow the monetary easing program.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher and Europe's stocks are lower.
More in a minute,
07-10-2013 06:18 AM - edited 07-10-2013 06:32 AM
VIDEO: Kyle Tapley, senior ag meteorologist with MDA Weather Services, tells Agriculture.com the latter part of July should bring heat but not extreme temperatures to the Midwest's corn and soybean crops.
07-10-2013 07:03 AM
Thanks Mike. That certainly isn't what a lot of people want to hear. Many on these message boards seem quite anxious for the dome of doom to move into the cornbelt. I don't quite understand that thought process but to each his own. I think the jury is still out on whether or not this dome moves east of the Miss River but I think at this time it is a very real possibility. Definitely not a sure thing so we will just have to wait and see. If it were to move east in the time frame being suggested by some models it would happen right in the middle of pollinaiton for a lot acres. Stay tuned I guess.
07-10-2013 07:28 AM
I have never seen basis levels like this in South Central Nebraska... they are bidding off the Sept. futures however basis levels at various markets in the area are 1.60 to 1.30 over... unheard of... tells me there is no old crop corn left in the area!
07-10-2013 07:29 AM
Last night the River was about flat at +.01 and one of the ethanol plants was -.06 on the nearby. For fall the river was around +.23 and the ethanol plant was about +.31. I guess the ethanol plant has about all they need in the near term and are a little more concerned toward fall. We had a respectable crop around here last fall so where we are normally a real strong basis area we have been way behind places west of here that really took it in the shorts last fall.
07-10-2013 07:42 AM - edited 07-10-2013 07:45 AM
Thanks for that information. This brings up another question. Is anybody selling into this strong basis market? Or, are the elevators having to offer that higher bid to attract sellers from even further away than usual? And, are you referring to ethanol plants offering this strong basis, elevators, feeders, or whom?
I'm hearing the end-user is dwindling that timeframe that they are fearing being short supply. In other words, we are now getting close enough to the new crop that the end-user feels like they only need to buy a few weeks out to make sure they have enough supply. I know, I know, you'll have a lot of people think "close enough to the new-crop, Mike what are you saying?" Yes, there is a lot of time and critical weather ahead of us. But, I have heard the end-users are becoming less concerned about making it through old-crop supplies. So, yes, it (the grain or soybean supply) must be out there, but they (end-user) is just paying up for it.
Just a few thoughts
07-10-2013 07:59 AM
the ethanol plants in the area are driving the basis with the feedlots, and elevators following..
concerning the new crop.. we are approximately 2 weeks behind normal.. tasseling should begin in a week or so normally tassels are showing about the 4th or the 7th.. in this immediate area we are very dry.. no subsoil from the winter and in my watershed we are capped at 10.5 inches of irrigation.. this is very concerning as we started pumping a week or so earlier than normal... use at this point is around 2 to 2.5 inches and we havent tasselled yet... last year irrigators in the area used 9 to 14 inches of irrigated water... if that continues with a penalty of 3 inches for every inch over the 10.5 cap some in the area could lose the ablity to pump for one year with applications of 13.5 inches this year... scarry to say the least... dryland has been wilting for a week or so and if no rain in the next 10 days it may not yield much if anything (corn has only one shot at setting an ear... bean will set over a longer period of time).. in the last 40 days we have recieved .69 total rainfall ... federal crop insurance is the farming practice this year i fear... for all the talk of rain east of us I wish we could catch at least a cloud for now... btw dryland corn yielded from 18 to 65 bu on my farms last year with some subsoil moisture... btw we no-til, strip-till and use cover crops and rotation to maximize yields ... without rain it doesn't matter what your farming practice or the hybrids you plant are you can't raise corn or beans
07-10-2013 08:09 AM
07-10-2013 10:05 AM
Mike, I don't follow basis levels much because I don't have any stored grain. I did however stop into our local elevator 3 weeks ago and they were hauling out the last load of soybeans. They said they still had 100,000 bushels or so of corn in the bin. As for the crop 3 hours east of you..... If all you can hear is crickets from areas with good weather and the possibility of a good crop, then you could hear a pin drop here. We still have a ways to go but the crop looks great here.