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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk July 15

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Sept. futures corn contract closed 9 cents lower at $5.36. New-crop Dec. corn futures finish 6 cents lower at $5.03. The Aug. soybean futures contract ended 25 cents higher at $14.53, new-crop Nov. soybeans closed 6 cents higher at $12.63. Sept. wheat futures finished 11 cents lower at $6.69 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures closed $8.60 short ton higher at $451.50. The Dec. soyoil futures ended $0.47 lower at $45.28.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.15 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 30 points higher.

 

Mike

--------

At 12-Noon:

One market analyst describes today's market action like this:

 

"The speculative shorts, which have a record position, are in control of the corn market.  The late July forecast, with its non-threatening temperatures, is perceived by them to be non-threatening to pollination.  Fact is that there’s a lot of dryness still out there and even some of the wettest areas from this past spring could use a drink, as root development has been shallow.  End-users are on the sidelines, though commercial entities have been covering their short position at the same speed that the funds get shorter.  Looks like the “smart money” thinks there’s still a 14 billion crop out there.  I have my doubts and furthermore wonder where all the sub-$5.00 selling will come from to get the specs out of their shorts."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Sept. futures corn contract is 8 cents lower at $5.37. New-crop Dec. corn futures are 6 cents lower at $5.03. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 23 cents higher at $14.52, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 1 cent higher at $12.58. Sept. wheat futures are 10 cents lower at $6.70 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures are trading $8.20 short ton higher at $451.10. The Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.13 lower at $46.09.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.03 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 17 points higher.

 

"I think wheat is lower on the good harvest progress that looks to be made in the Midwest this week. Plus, the rains in the Great Plains will add to soil moisture and not hurt harvest progress," he says.
There is some selling after the big sales last week, too, he says. "There are no new sales, so far today.  
World prices are still above U.S. prices for everything, he says.  
"Speculators appear to be selling. My commercial and producer-side customer business is dead today.  Soybeans are led by the August contract which is related to the tight supply situation. And, I think it (August contract) is bringing the new crop along,".

 

Mike

---------

At 11am:

 

USDA's Weekly Grain Inspections Report Monday shows lower wheat sales than last week's estimate, soybean sales are seen higher in the last week, and this Thursday's sales could show a revised corn number that is double what was reported in the past week.

 

--NOPA reports Monday that the June soybean crush was 119.5 million bushels, 3.6 mill. higher vs. a month ago.

--NOPA reports Monday that the U.S. June soyoil crush totaled 2.3 billion pounds, down 169 mill. vs. May.

 

Mike

-------

At the open:
The Sept. futures corn contract is 6 cents lower at $5.38. New-crop Dec. corn futures are 6 cents lower at $5.03. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 4 cents higher at $14.33, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 3 cents lower at $12.54. Sept. wheat futures started 9 cents lower at $6.72 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures are trading $3.30 short ton higher at $446.20. The Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.19 lower at $46.03.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.98 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 16 points higher.

 

Mike

-----------

At 8:25am:

--USDA announces Monday that an 'unknown' buyer picked up 120,000 tons of U.S. corn for 2013-14 delivery.

 

Is China still in the U.S. corn store filling up bags of corn? They couldn't get enough last week? What do you think?

 

 

Mike

---------

At 8am:

 

Jeff Coleman, Trean Group analyst and CME Group floor trader, wraps up the overnight and hints to where today's markte may be headed. in his own words:

 

"The big three grain markets are all lower overnight as the weather models used by different companies have taken most of the heat out of the 15 day forecast. December corn futures are off by 8 cents on heavy volume as the bulls seem to have gotten caught after Thursday’s USDA WASDE report. November soybean futures also traded heavily overnight in an 11 cent range but are showing just a 3 cent loss as we head into the 7:45 AM CST close this morning. December wheat futures are down 11 cents with some profit taking after a 5 day rally."

 

Mike

---------

At 7:45am:

The overnight markets sold off with high volume, due to an improved weather outlook. Do you want to see what a bearish weather forecast looks like, according to Freese-Notis Weather Inc.?

 

Here's a bearish weather outlook.

 

Meanwhile, Wxrisk.com is sharing a crop-friendly 6-10 day outlook with its customers, Monday. Here's an excerpt: "We also have a strong model agreement as to how the heat is going to end.  All the model data shows a pretty strong cold front moving south from the U.S. Canada border and the northern Great Lakes into the heart of the upper Plains and the Midwest Friday...  Friday night....  and Saturday morning.  The front  will have a pretty decent rain shield associate with it  bringing 0.25 to 1.25"  with 50%  coverage over the  Upper Plains...   65% coverage of 0.25 to 1.50" over the the  WCB   and    75%  coverage of 0.50 to 2.00" over the  ECB and the  southeast states," according to Wxrisk.com.

 

 

Now, what's the crop-weather look like out your window?

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 8-10 cents lower (old-crop), soybeans 1-2 cents lower (old-crop), and wheat 8-10 cents lower. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 8-10 cents lower and soybeans are seen 3-5 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.64 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen hhigher, ahead of Citigroup's report on 2nd quarter earnings.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher and Europe's stocks are higher.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 15

[ Edited ]

Bom dia,

 

I drove the western edge of Chicago to Des Moines route, Sunday. Here are a few takeaways. Rain is needed, it looks like. Just a few fields were tasseling, along I-88 in western Illinois. Not a a lot of fields tasseling in eastern Iowa, but some. The soybeans have really taken off. I mean I saw some fields where the rows had closed, and maybe had been that way for awhile. And, I thought most of the beans looked very healthy. Keep in mind, the twin boys didn't allow me to get out and walk the fields. So, I was zooming by. But, overall, the beans looked healthy and the corn has really grown since July 4, when I zoomed past some of these same fields. I'm sure there could be SDS in the beans, some shallow root issues with the corn and maybe some other stuff. But, overall, it was a pretty drive Sunday, looking at the plush green crops rolling throughout the many fields of Iowa and Illinois. Now, you want to talk about mosquito's? That is a different conversation. Man they are bad this year!!

 

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 15

I wasn't aware that rain helped wheat once it was combines.. 

 

sorry being a little smart....

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 15

highyields,

 

You referring to the bearish weather outlook?

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 15

yes

 

 

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 15

I saw that weather model this morning. The low up in Canada is impressive. Only one thing - it's in Canada. It didn't look like a big rain producer across the US to me. When that front dips through, it will impact mostly ND, MN, and WI, and may be strong enough to give IA a shot at some rain. Beyond that, it doesn't look all that wet. And a quarter to one half inch of rain, the corn is using that daily now. The jet stream is wrong for this to be a real weather event. It is a west to east flow, the air has already lost most of its moisture that it contained when it was forced up over the Rockies. You bears are hanging your hat on something that I feel will be little more than a days worth of moisture, to some areas. Not the general rain we are going to need by then.

Jen
Veteran Contributor
Whitesand_Farms
Posts: 102
Registered: ‎05-31-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 15

I'm just curious which site you use to see the weather model ?

Senior Contributor
too close for comfort
Posts: 224
Registered: ‎05-11-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 15

Yeah Mike the mosquito market is definetly bearish. Best crop in a long time.

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 15

Whitesand - weatherunisys.com or if not quite so computer savvy, weather street.com.

By the way, took another break to look at the models a little closer. It's a non event. Not saying it will not happen, but not much changes. That low up in Canada stays in Canada, pushes a bit south and then retreats back to Canada. Then we revert back to what we have. That's the truth about what this system shows for the next ten days. Wisconsin gets the bulk of the rain (oh yeah, I keep forgetting that we don't count) so, in reality, it looks to me like a lot of notin.

Jen
Advisor
Red Steele
Posts: 4,561
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Good point on sub $5 selling

with all the new on farm storage, and with the very strong financial position of today's grain farmers, I too seriously wonder where the speculators think they are going to be able to find sub $5 sellers.

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