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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk July 15

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 6 1/2 cents lower at $3.81.

 

Nov. soybean futures finished unchanged at $10.86.

Sep. wheat futures closed unchanged at $5.37.

The Dec. soymeal futures contract settled $1.50 per short ton lower at $347.20. The Dec. soyoil futures finished $0.01 higher at $37.11.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $1.04 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 5 points higher.

 

 

Mike

------------

At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 7 1/4 cents lower at $3.81.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 11 3/4 cents lower at $10.74.

Sep. wheat futures are 6 cents lower at $5.31.

 

The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $3.50 per short ton lower at $345.20. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.48 lower at $36.62.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $1.76 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 36 points lower.

 

Mike

--------------

At the open:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 5 cents lower at $3.83.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 8 cents lower at $10.78.

Sep. wheat futures are 4 cents lower at $5.33.

The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $2.30 per short ton higher at $346.40. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.31 lower at $36.79.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.96 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 46 points higher.

 

Mike

---------------------

At 8am:

Fresh Soybean export sales announced Tuesday. Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans to China during the 2014/2015 marketing year. 

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

 

Mike

------------

At 8:00am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 5-7 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.

Brent Crude Oil=$0.55 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen higher, JP Morgan & Goldman earnings beat expectations. Fed Chairman Yellen speaks today. This is a big earnings week.

World Markets=Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,291
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk July 15

Except those boxed in I can't imagine selling wheat at these prices. An extremely cheap commodity loan and waiting seems like the strategic option.

 

Some may grow wheat as strictly a minor crop or won't be able to use storage to hang on I suppose.

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,119
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk July 15

--------------------------------------------------------------    

MARKET COMMENTARY July 14, 2014

 

By Raymond Jenkins

 

Yes, we put Nathan in the dunk tank last Friday and let him try to put “lipstick on a pig” as it pertains to the corn market of the past couple of weeks. For the first time in a while, the grain markets acted like they had a fighting chance of carving out a short-term bottom, so we closed corn up 3, wheat up 12+, but leaving soybeans to provide the disappointment as August beans closed up half a cent after being up 14 at one time during the day session.

 

To be honest, the “big crop genie” is out of the bottle, and getting it back in there is going to be a herculean task that will difficult to achieve given current weather forecasts. I went outside at noon, and this is certainly not the kind of weather we have had in the middle of July in recent years.

 

So, how to make some lemonade out of the lemons?? You need to think about two things: crop revenue and earning carries in the market. We all wished more new crop corn had been sold in the $4.50—5.00 range, so now we will just have to live with a scenario of lower price and more bushels to generate income.

 

The next step is watching the corn market return to the normalcy of larger crops needing to be stored to provide a return. Almost 42 cent cash carries from mid-harvest to the first of June right now.

 

It’s good to be back, but not much fun having to chat about substantially lower price levels.

 

We have no magic solutions, but will continue to point out the opportunities in these markets.

 

Raymond Jenkins

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,119
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk July 15

Marketeye, why no old crop soy quotes?

 

Believe it or not I know a guy in Ill. that knows a guy in Indiana that still has two loads of old crop beans.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,774
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk July 15

Just pile them two loads next to those 8 loads of HRW wheat.

 

I got a 200 bushel pile in the front hopper of HHHHRRRRRWWWW ------ I would like to place squarely on Mikes desk (or front door step of his house in a paper bag).

 

 

sw
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,119
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk July 15

Man O Man, the USDA may be right...

 

Just got notified that I know a guy in Kansas that knows a guy in Louisiana that knows a guy in Iowa that has 9000 bu of old crop beans. Anybody know anybody that knows anybody from Maryland?

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,774
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk July 15

I have to smile watching the end users down here ----------- early june they scramble to make it too harvest (which is code for "without bumping basis up") -------- then one day in July when the needs to Sept are covered, the world is awash in grains, "will have to pile the new crop on the ground".  yadda yadda yadda

 

Which brings up another irony -------- the 1960's ----- feedlots forced farm storage and elevators to add grain cleaners to keep the % of broken kernals and foreign matter down to less than 1.5 -2 %.  Above that loads were rejected, sent home to be cleaned and sent back later.  Now the end users store it in ground piles and work the resulting mess through the feedlot or ethanol plant all spring like quality is not an issue. 

That is one of those tell tail signs of surplus supply.  When 20% of the loads get rejected we probably have a surplus.  Or only a select few producers get the opportunity at contracts.

Watch what the basis trends are,  watch what buyers do, not what they say.  

The "new age" market is easier to manipulate than at any time in my life time.  Too few control too much of the usage and too few control too much of the speculation.  When the funds decide to make profit by changing the trend, they can.  Those who own the supply own the message.

The whole thing seems a little like television to me.  The technology grows and improves, so now we get 176 versions of the same 5 messages.

 I feel like the undertaker is selling life insurance.

No independant source of information available. ------- except maybe Louis

 

 

 

 

Why does Mike hate HRWW??????

 

sw
Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,107
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk July 15

 HRWW??????   My question is what the heck is it ? Maybe thats it - Mike don't hate - hes like me and just don't what it is -- :smileywink: :smileyhappy:

 

BTW If its a plant - is it grown in this country ?? 

Senior Contributor
clayton58
Posts: 359
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk July 15

I know some people in PA.  Does that count?  But I don't know if they have any beans left or not.

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,107
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk July 15

Hobby - It must be Rawhide - Oh the he11 would have any beans left ?   :smileysurprised: