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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,038
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk July 16

[ Edited ]

After the close:

Weather Update: New weather models show that the 6-10 day outlook for the Midwest has turned significantly wetter. No 2nd heat dome and rain is on its way next week!

 

Did I just hear the air come out of the farm market's rally?

 

Mike

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At the close:

The Sept. futures corn contract closed 9 cents higher at $5.45. New-crop Dec. corn futures closed 7 cents higher at $5.10. The Aug. soybean futures contract ended 21 cents higher at $14.75, new-crop Nov. soybeans finished 22cents higher at $12.86. Sept. wheat futures closed unchanged at $6.69 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures finished $11.70 short ton higher at $388.60. The Dec. soyoil futures closed unchanged at $45.28.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.44 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 36 points lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Sept. futures corn contract is 10 cents higher at $5.46. New-crop Dec. corn futures are 9 cents higher at $5.12. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 28 cents higher at $14.82, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 26 cents higher at $12.90. Sept. wheat futures are trading 7 cents higher at $6.77 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $11.60 short ton higher at $388.50. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.33 higher at $45.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.47 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 39 points lower.

 

One analyst says, "90% of the pricing for grains is weather and its effect on yield potential until  pollination is over on corn and the pod setting stage for beans. After Monday's crop condition report lowered corn and beans 2% on the week, combined with this week's weather outlook showing drier and warmer conditions than needed for good development, traders began to buy on thinking next Monday's report, again, will come in lower."

 

Mike

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At the open:
The Sept. futures corn contract is 12 cents higher at $5.49. New-crop Dec. corn futures are 13 cents higher at $5.17. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 22 cents higher at $14.76, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 20 cents higher at $12.83. Sept. wheat futures started 10 cents higher at $6.79 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $7.20 short ton higher at $384.10. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.29 higher at $45.57.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.49 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 7:00am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 8-10 cents higher (old-crop), soybeans 20-21 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 8-10 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 12-14 cents higher and soybeans are seen 18-20 cents higher. Strong demand from oil processors, tight supplies, and a drop in the crop ratings Monday are backing this rally, analysts say. The EU and U.S. weather models differ for the final week of July. EU says high ridge for Midwest, U.S. model says rain for that timeframe.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading sharply higher.
Crude Oil=$0.15 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen higher, as Goldman Sachs beats the street expectations for 2nd quarter earnings. Coca Cola misses.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed-to-lower and Europe's stocks are lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
k-289
Posts: 1,716
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 16

The banks are ripen and the consumption is slipping ---

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,158
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 16

Looks like a wild day in store. I'm positioned right for this rally, may add to my positions this morning. Probably should have already done so, but well see how it goes today.

DTN analyst this morning basically not understanding this rally. He was questioning why we would be so strong on a 2% drop in crop ratings. Man - now there's someone with blinders on. I think he's had a bit too much of the kook-aid.

The Canada thing is a non-event, that's fairly evident by the overnight rally. But weather systems are sorta moving again, depending on which weather model you look at. The troubling thing as I looked at the American model is that there is still a block in the SW US. What they show is everything dipping down into the Midwest out of Canada, much like yesterday's big news story. I'm leaning - quite far actually - toward the European model. Because of that blocking to the SW, it leads me to believe that the strength of that semi-permanent high has not waned, but just moved SW because of the strength of that low (which I said yesterday was impressive) up in the great white north.

Going to be heading back to MN in a couple of days, I'll take some pictures of what it looks like. Although, I probably won't need the pictures, you'll be able to get the same look at a field near you shortly.

Jen
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,038
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 16

jennys_mn,

 

I had a weather expert tell me, one time, watch the EU model closer than the U.S.

 

I'm just sayin. I don't know why. But, he tends to believe the EU model is right more often than the U.S. model.

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
k-289
Posts: 1,716
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 16

Seemsa the forcast on Friday said 80's for this week  -  now they are calling for mid ninties  -  interesting --- 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,038
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 16

As the markets trade off of their highs, here's more weather stuff. The Chicago area is headed for the longest consecutive 90-degree days in 13-months. Also, after looking through 142 years of weather data, the hottest days for the Chicago area, annually, hit on average between July 15-28, Tom Skilling WGN meteorologist, reported recently.

 

Mike

 

 

 

 

 

 

Senior Contributor
luisvieira
Posts: 218
Registered: ‎04-24-2012
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Re: Floor Talk July 16

I'm wondering about wheat, Mike.

Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 164
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
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Uh Oh Mike!

You'll catch the devil for reporting on the possibility of more favorable weather!  Most of the guys on these boards only want to talk about how much worse it is going to get.  The forecasts sure are flip flopping around like a fish out of water.  About every three hours there is another change in the forecast.  I think Tom Skilling out of Chicago is still clinging to the dome moving back in again next week.  I think the key is that this thing is going to keep moving back and forth giving a lot of folks a break from the heat.  The question  then becomes will there be any rain in between.  There are scattered chances Friday thru the middle of next week with the best chance so far on Friday night.  People need to keep in mind that I don't believe anyone is calling for general rains with this front that is supposed to move through.  You don't typically get widespread drenching rain with a southbound coldfront.  Some will get rain and some won't.  I think the whole dome thing could stil go either way but at this point I think it is being highly over promoted by the bulls.  Time will tell. 

Senior Contributor
SouthWestOhio
Posts: 515
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Uh Oh Mike!

Steve our best rain chance is late Saturday but 50% is just that. I had two drops hit the windshield this afternoon and got excited for a second but that was all she wrote. Corn is not curling here yet but the tiles are not running and I'm expecting the corn to start protesting tomorrow or Thursday. Luckily our fields finished pollinating this weekend but most of the neighbors are not so lucky. This heat is certain to impact the fields still pollinating.
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jennys_mn
Posts: 1,158
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Uh Oh Mike!

The 6 - 10 day forecasts how shown above normal precip almost every day for the past two weeks, Mike. It hasn't been accurate at all as of late - I wouldn't hang my hat on that one either. The corn and soybean belt needs more than a quarter of an inch with 50% coverage. And that is not in the charts right now. Look at the 8 - 14 day outlook, and report on that. Hotter, drier, and then if you look at the direction everything is moving from the 6 - 10 vs the 8 - 14, the chance of above normal moves farther, the heat moves farther east, and a dry area develops over TX and OK. That's the one to watch right there, as our most severe droughts in the Midwest tend to amplify from that area. You need to do more homework.....

Jen