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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk July 19

[ Edited ]

WEATHER TALK: Harvey Freese, Sr. Ag Meteorologist with Freese-Notis Weather, visits with Marketeye about rain chances for Midwest corn and soybean crops. Also, find out what August weather may be like by listening to this chat with Freese:

 

 

 

Mike

--------------------

At mid-session:

The Sept. futures corn contract is 1 cent lower at $5.40. New-crop Dec. corn futures are 4 cents lower at $4.97. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 16 cents higher at $14.85, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 3 cent higher at $12.69. Sept. wheat futures started 3 cents higher at $6.62 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $.13 short ton higher at $45.52. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $0.50 higher per short ton at $378.40.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.61 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points lower.

 

Mike

-------

At the open:
The Sept. futures corn contract is 3 cents lower at $5.37. New-crop Dec. corn futures are 5 cents lower at $4.95. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 11 cents higher at $14.80, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 1 cent higher at $12.66. Sept. wheat futures started 2 cents higher at $6.62 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $.08 short ton higher at $45.47.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.94 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 8:15am:

--China announces Friday that its central bank has abandoned a floor on interest rates. This liberalization of the financial system could have a trickle down affect on improving consumption.

--China buys 600,000 tons of Australian wheat Friday for Jan-March 2014 delivery.

--China buys 120,000 tons of U.S. SRW Wheat for 2013-14 delivery.

 

Now: This Crop Update is just coming into the Marketeye newsroom:

 

In western Nebraska, wheat farmers are reportedly discing up poor wheat crops. Letting the wheat stand could harm any cattle that get turned out into the fields. Also, the dryland corn is nearly shot. Rain is needed and may be too late, already, for that part of the state's crops. Nebraska farmers are reportedly pooring the irrigated water on corn as fast as they can. My source tells me the Nebraska farmers are telling him that the corn market is not even close in reflecting how the conditions are in the western Corn Belt.

 

 

Mike

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At 5:35am:

--South Korea buyer purchases 165,000 tons of feed corn from South Africa, Black Sea Region Friday.

--S. korea buyer purchases wheat from the Black Sea region Friday.

--One analyst sees Monday's USDA Crop Condition Report showing a 1-2% in the corn good/excellent rating. If you remember, this week;s report showed 66% of the U.S. corn crop was in good to excellent condition as of July 14, with 25% average and 9%  poor to very poor. A year ago at this time, 31% of the country's crop was rated good to excellent, while 31% was average and 38% poor to very poor..

 

Mike

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At 5:30am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower (old-crop), soybeans 12-14 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 2-4 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 3-5 cents lower and soybeans are seen 3-5 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mixed.
Crude Oil=$0.14 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen lower, ahead of GE's earnings.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower and Europe's stocks are lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 19

[ Edited ]

There's some rain out there:

interrad.gif

 

 

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Newswire is running this forecast, this morning:

 

WEST: Scattered showers will mainly occur in eastern Iowa and northeast Missouri today or tonight. Scattered light to locally moderate showers and thundershowers develop in the west and spread east tomorrow and Sunday. 
Rainfall potential appears to be 0.25-0.75 inch and locally heavier with these showers. Temperatures range from the 80s north to the upper 90s south today, upper 70s to low 80s north and 80s south during the weekend. 
Scattered light to locally moderate showers Monday. Drier Tuesday. Showers redevelop Wednesday or Wednesday night. Temperatures average near to below normal north, near to above normal south, during this period.

Mike
Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010

Re: Floor Talk July 19

Wow, now there's a weather report I can get excited about. That line of showers is - lets count them - ah, 1 - county wide. Will probably disapate some as the morning wares on. History of cold front so far certainly is not impressive, but when you get no rain I guess .1 to .25 is something to hang your hat on. There may be some heavier amounts somewhere but I see nothing in today's charts that are showing the amounts you are. But, this will buy some more time and allow the market to go down on ALL THAT RAIN. Why not issue some flood alerts while you're at it. That would surely make the market drop.

I've said I'm not a meterologist. Don't even pretend to be one. I'm just questioning the validity of the reports, like the one above, that tend to leave out some very important details. Most people will read the report above and key on one thing - 3/4 of an inch - and, again, we may see 5 - 10 percent coverage at that level. And then what. Next week. Next weeks rain is going to be huge. Yeah right. Next weeks totals don't look like they will match this weeks totals. This once again, as someone referred to looks a whole lot like kicking the can farther down the road. You got a lot of mileage on this front though. It's been sold as a bill of goods for - what, 5 days now. It used to be buy the rumor, sell the fact. Rain had to actually produce rain to be sold. But this year, since the beginning, seems to be different. It's sell the rumor, and sell the fact. Why is that? I'm just asking the questions.

And I have no doubt that it is easy to discredit what I'm saying. But then answer me one simple fact - why has what I have been saying about the weather more accurate than this that do it for a living? There it is - why?

You hold this thing up like this little front is this major event. This is no major event, the WCB gets virtually nothing. Go out and pee on the corn - it's going to do about as much good.

Jen
Senior Contributor
4wd
Posts: 544
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 19

Ummmmm, you disbelieve a radar pict showing yellows and reds?

Advisor
jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,123
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 19

Well the Nikkei fell outa bed this morning or last night sometime. Could be bullish for commodities? Don't know.

Senior Contributor
Slim123
Posts: 202
Registered: ‎01-20-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk July 19

[ Edited ]

Mike, no rain in that front for me. Thunder and lighting and enough rain to wet the cement.  Last Saturday we had a 20% chance to get a quarter inch of rain , we got 3 1/2 inches. 

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk July 19

No - I look at rainfall totals and see what the real TOTALS are, because that is what is important. And the totals aren't impressive. As far as reds and yellows, yes, there's red and yellow out there, but this is no all day rain event. This is the flash in the pan 1/4 inch event. And that's all it is. How can you possibly be making this out to be more? It's bearly even seeable on the national map. I stand by what I said. Don't make this out to be the savior of this crop - by the way, why does it even need saving if its already made?

Jen
Advisor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,183
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk July 19

It's been more like a dew. Thats what 70% of 15mm brought. Last chance for romance for me is tonight.. 80% of 10mm. Was 2" forecast at some pt.
Veteran Contributor
booked
Posts: 70
Registered: ‎05-15-2010

Re: Floor Talk July 19

Well when that toad strangler passed over it  gave me .08 back to spraying...........................

 

Veteran Contributor
aaron-neill
Posts: 67
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk July 19

Mike if that line of showers is the one the trade and I have been waiting for I am afraid both will be disappointed...

 

And next monday expect a 3.-5% drop in ratings.  Not making a call on what or where but if the "drive by agronomists" can see what I see in the last week things have deteriorated rapidly here and other places as seen by the reports.  Approching 4-weeks without a rain in NE-ILL

@cfarms76