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07-02-2012 07:00 AM - edited 07-02-2012 06:35 PM
The overnight markets are trading higher, on the Globex. July corn has jumped over the $7 mark.
At the close:
The July corn futures settled 20 1/2 cents higher at $6.93, while the Dec. contract finished 21 3/4 cents higher at $6.56 1/2. The July soybean contract settled 18 1/2 cents higher $15.31 1/4, while the Nov. 2012 contract closed 10 1/2 cents higher at $14.38. The July wheat futures ended 15 1/2 cents higher at $7.54 1/2. July soyoil futures settled $0.06 lower at $52.15. The July soymeal futures finished $8.50 higher at $438.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.25 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 49 points lower.
The July corn contract neared the $7 mark today. In general, we're hearing about the same perspective from many different analysts. Here's yet another one: "What a classic weather market! We know it is hot, we know it will cool off on the weekend (but not be cool, rather be normal), what we don’t know is if it will rain. With corn tasseling, this is a key week. I am sure pix of corn fields will be forwarded like gangbusters.
Beans lag simply because their development isn’t as crucial right now. Plus a popular trade earlier in the year was to be long beans and short corn. As corn pollination weather has gotten so much attention recently, the tendency is to buy corn and sell beans (getting out of the spread).
Finally, we have weather forecasts every six hours to trade in this virtually continuous trading environment. Actually, the forecasts come every couple of hours, alternating between the GFS and the European. Volatility will continue as traders assess each model output," she says.
The July corn futures are trading 13 1/2 cents higher at $6.86, while the Dec. contract trades 18 cents higher at $6.53 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 17 cents higher $15.30, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 12 1/2 cents higher at $14.40. The July wheat futures are trading 5 cents higher at $7.44. July soyoil futures trade $0.08 lower at $52.13. The July soymeal futures are $7.50 higher at $443.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.11 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 65 points lower.
It's tough not to state the obvious. But, here is one analyst's take on this market. "It is definitely a weather market, and most of the Midwest looks hot and dry for at least the next week. Speculators started buying last night, and bought again in early trading. Now, it seems like we have turned sideways and slow. Maybe partly holiday, maybe partly waiting for the next model runs for the next forecast," he says.
A tweet reported Monday that WeatherRisk.com is finding potential for a change in the weather for the second half of the month, he says.
FYI: Holiday Trading Schedule:
Tuesday, July 3: The floor and electronic farm markets close at 12-Noon.
Wednesday, July 4th: Closed
Thursday, July 5: Regular Open/Close
At the open:
The July corn futures opened 15 cents higher at $6.88, while the Dec. contract trades 19 cents higher at $6.53 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 18 cents higher $15.15, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 15 cents higher at $14.42. The July wheat futures opened 8 cents higher at $7.47. Aug. soyoil futures trade $0.18 higher at $52.57. The July soymeal futures opened $8.20 higher at $444.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.39 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 49 points lower.
ALERT: July corn futures are 5¢ away from $7.00. Dec. corn is trading at $6.66.
--USDA announces Monday that an 'unknown' bought 1.19 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13 delivery.
--USDA announces Monday that Mexico bought 110,500 mt of U.S. corn fopr 2012-13 delivery.
Hmm...looks like some 'unknown' believes this rally has legs too. A huge load of beans flying off of the shelves Monday!!
Goldman Sachs Monday raised its three, six and 12-month price forecasts. Here is where they are moving their prices:
Corn=$6.25 from $5.25
Soybeans= $15.50 from $14.30
Wheat= $7.15 from $5.75
What do you think? Are those estimates high enough in your mind?
The trade sees this afternoon's Crop Progress Report showing a 3-5% decline in crop ratings. To boot, the entire Corn Belt is seen hot and dry through July 8. No break in the heat until maybe late next week. Therefore, the following week's rating is seen falling even further.
Early calls: Corn 8-10 cents higher, soybeans 15-18 cents higher, and wheat 7-9 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading sharply higher.
Crude Oil=$1.48 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening flat, after a big rally Friday.
More in a minute,
07-02-2012 07:17 AM - edited 07-02-2012 07:18 AM
Our local bids are based on the Sept futures for the last week and they are in the 20 cents up area. (at least till they fiddle with the basis again.)
How many others have their bids basis Sept?
07-02-2012 07:24 AM
Ours is based against the September also. Had lots of thunderstorms blow by this weekend. Some places got rain, others just had their roofs and trees blown about. We only picked up a half a tenth out of a shower last evening.
07-02-2012 08:37 AM
$16 beans are just two more trading days away at the least and SAM is sold out Ours is in jeopardy of less than spectacular yields along with being about 3 months away from major harvest.
$8 corn is closer in my opinion.
All hinges on USDA report and Preceptions in the next 3 days as they close for business tomorrow afternoon early. Thursday will be the "biggie" in my opinion.
07-02-2012 10:44 AM
USDA announces Monday that an 'unknown' bought 1.19 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13 delivery.
This is one of those We'll cancel it when the time is right or we need to crash the market so we can repurchase cheaper later. It is for the crop we are not growing very well at the current time. Only if SA has another/continuing problem will this hold up. Still it puts legs under the current prices. JMHO
07-02-2012 10:47 AM
Marketeye, let's just say, I think it will be just as likely to see $16 beans as it will be to see $14 beans over the next 3 weeks. What would that be? About a 50/50 chance? Is that worth betting on?...I don't know, but I still haven't sold a single 2011 soybean...and none for 2012 yet.
07-02-2012 01:06 PM
"A tweet reported Monday that WeatherRisk.com is finding potential for a change in the weather for the second half of the month, he says."
That should be a twit tweeted. "second half of the month" ? Like there will be anything by the 15th but crispy critters. Do they really think this is a computer game and can just be restarted or go back a few turns and redo?