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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk July 20

[ Edited ]

NEXT WEEK: Marketeye hits the road on a crop tour. I'll be joining a group touring parts of Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. Agriculture.com staff will then carry on with the tour through Iowa and onto Omaha, Nebraska to end the week. Join us for all of the coverage, beginning Monday morning. I'll be posting in Marketing Talk. You can also follow the tour's coverage on our main page of the website. Plus, let us know if you farm near the areas where we will be cropscouting. We hope you will chime in with your crop prospects.

 

Here's the schedule:

Begin: July 23, 2012 at 8:00am – Columbus, OH
July 23, 2012 – Western Ohio and eastern Indiana, stopping in Indianapolis, IN
July 24, 2012 – Western Indiana and eastern Illinois, stopping in Bloomington, IL
July 25, 2012 – Western Illinois and far eastern Iowa, stopping in Iowa City, IA
July 26, 2012 – North central Iowa, stopping in Fort Dodge, IA
July 27, 2012 – Northwestern Iowa and far eastern Nebraska, stopping in Omaha, NE
End: July 27, 2012 between 2:00-4:00pm – Omaha, NE

 

Mike

-----------------------

At the close:

The Sep. corn futures settled 16 3/4 cents higher at $8.24 1/2, while the Dec. contract ended 17 1/4 cents higher at $7.95 3/4. The August soybean contract settled 23 3/4 cents higher $17.57 1/2, while the Nov. 2012 contract finished 34 cents higher at $16.86 1/4. The Sep. wheat futures ended 8 1/4 cents higher at $9.43 1/4. Aug. soyoil futures settled $0.04 lower at $54.36. The Aug. soymeal futures closed $11.00 higher at $543.00. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.23 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 117 points lower.

 

Mike

------

At mid-session:

The Sep. corn futures are trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $8.09 1/4, while the Dec. contract trades 12 1/2 cents higher at $7.91. The August soybean contract is trading 18 1/4 cents higher $17.52, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 30 3/4 cents higher at $16.83. The Sep. wheat futures are trading 8 1/4 cents lower at $9.26 3/4. Aug. soyoil futures trade $0.06 lower at $54.34. The Aug. soymeal futures are trading $11.70 higher at $543.70. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.72 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 73 points lower.

 

One analyst says that 2013 farmer-selling and speculative activity hints that a top for these markets may be coming into focus.
"It's a very choppy day, with not a lot of news out there.  Seeing some producer interest in starting to sell 2013 crops a bit, which is interesting news," he says.
But, mostly the spec-buying and selling, both sides of the market, getting in or getting out whatever they want to do, is dominating the market, he says. 
"We're seeing a lot of action in the spreads again, which is making me wonder what up side we got left here. I am not ready to say this market has topped, but what is going on here is not what happens when the market wants to run lots higher.  Watching it like a hawk to stay with my clients and see," he says.

 

Mike

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At 10:45am:

You can sell old-crop corn, in one central Illinois location this morning, at $8.34 per bushel. Heck, new-crop is offered at $7.83. Wow! What are the cash offers near you? Thanks for sharing.

 

Mike

-------

At the open:

The Sep. corn futures opened 1/4 of a cent higher at $8.08, while the Dec. contract trades 10 1/2 cents higher at $7.89. The August soybean contract is trading 20 cents higher $17.53, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 25 cents higher at $16.76 1/4. The Sep. wheat futures opened unchanged at $9.34 1/2. Aug. soyoil futures trade $0.02 lower at $54.38. The Aug. soymeal futures opened $14.10 higher at $546.10. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.72 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 73 points lower.

 

Mike

---------

At 9:05am:

No fresh export sales reported Friday. Separately, it's interesting to note a message from Ag Resource this morning. The market analyst firm stated in its daily newsletter to customers Friday: "To date, July has been the 2nd warmest and 2nd driest in the last 118 years. The only year that was worse is 1936 - the height of the Dust Bowl Days. 1983 nor 1988 are no longer good analogs for prices or crop yields based on this drought persisting for so long. In 1988 it started raining in late June while the drought in 1983 did not even get started until the closing days of June.
For the June 1st-Jul 20th period, the US has never been so hot/dry in 76 years!"

 

Mike

-------

At 7:40am:

ALL-TIME SOYBEAN RECORD: $17.77 3/4, basis August contract. This price was hit overnight!

 

Mike

-----------

 

At 6:40am:

Questions about the markets:

 

--Can Dec. corn push through $8 mark?

--Will a lower close in the Aug. soybean and Sep. corn contracts signal a top?

--Can the market sustain itself with end-of-month profit-taking approaching?

--Is the market squarely focused on the weather for the last week of July and the first two weeks in August, as many suggest? Reason being, early planting made this timeframe the key reproductive stage for soybeans.

---Do the macrofactors matter at all, right now?

--Has that southern Midwest corn, that so many talked about the market counting on being harvested early, burnt up, been chopped, or been deemend as not sufficient?

--Speaking of harvest, I'm hearing some of this corn in the central part of the Midwest will be ready in late August. Maybe the market shifts its mentality to that crop saving the balance sheet's 'bacon'?

 

Care to take a stab at answering any of these questions?

 

Mike

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At 6:30am:

--Japan buys 209,000 mt of milling wheat Friday.

 

Mike

-------

--At 6am:

Early calls: Corn (new crop) 5-7 cents higher, soybeans 24-28 cents higher, and wheat 8-10 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$1.20 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening mixed, ahead of more corporate earnings reports. The market is focused on the eurozone meeting dealing with a Spanish bank bailout plan. 

World Markets=Lower.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk July 20

[ Edited ]

I don't know, can we top yesterday's soybean trade? What a day, what a market, what times we're living in! With the national weather service talking about this weather pattern continuing into the fall, you might be hard-pressed to find a top anytime soon huh? As a result, Brazilian farmers are expected to plant soybeans from the Andes Mountains (maybe even on the mountains) to the shores of Rio (maybe even in the stadiums they are building for the Olympics. Just kidding, of course. On a serious note, I'm hearing the seed fear factor is already spreading for U.S. farmers. Are you being told to get your 2013 seed now, due to the droughts that hit the two Americas this year? One thing that might be happening, less South American corn may be planted in 2013, so some of that Argentinian seed could make its way to the U.S., if it's applicable, of course. What are your thoughts on pricing inputs in July?

 

Weathwise, I see very little out there this morning. Here's the latest from the Freese-Notis Weather Inc.'s radar:

 

InterRAD-2.gif

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,029
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk July 20

[ Edited ]

Have been advised by someone NOT in the seed business but that is in and out of  many different seed producers and processors co.s facilities all the time that Production is suffering the same or worse than the crops at large. His advice was to get it early.

 

I am going to a seed thing next week and will know more after that.

 

 

Just another thing to pile on the stress level of many farmers that do not need that right now.

 

I am very afraid some farmers will not survive this.

 

We DO NOT need less farmers. Bigger is not always better.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Advisor
Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 20

Most seed suitable for the Western corn belt, is planted under pivots, in East Central Nebraska, so the seed I plant should be in sufficient numbers.  The varieties they use farther East, I don't know.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk July 20

Hobbyfarmer,

 

Sorry. Though it is funny. Regarding the photo, I ran a check with my appropriateness gauge. The photo just didn't register right. Don't be offended. It just didn't feel right, for this thread that's all. I understand the caption, don't get me wrong. I just think that kind of photo belongs elsewhere. Thanks for your understanding.

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,029
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk July 20

Nothing to be sorry about on your side of the screen. My wife didn't like it either. but she thought this one was way better to decribe the experts and pundents.

 

Head Up Your Ass

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk July 20

I don't' think you have to worry about early harvest corn, most of that is sold I imagine, thus should be priced in the market. In my opinion.  And I saw a picture last night of a guy shredding his corn off, to plant wheat in it.   No ears on the inside of the field. Supposedly taken in southern Illinois  

 

 

 

 

 

I would like to place a disclaimer,  I try to type as fast as I think, so sometimes words get misplace, or mis spelled, I imagine if you read it enough times the post will make since.  

Senior Advisor
Jim Meade / Iowa City
Posts: 2,506
Registered: ‎04-30-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk July 20

I tihnk the corn harvested earliest will be already sold, but why stop there?  Might as well get it in the bin or on a truck.  If we don't have weird weather at harvest, we might all be done well before Halloween this year - maybe in early October.  Dry down is no tlikley to be a problem.  Stalks that cannabalized themselves probably don't stand well so might as well combine them.  I think when I start I'll keep on going till I'm done.

That means I might sell some other early corn if I think the market will drop as demand is killed by high prices.  If I get $8 or $9 at harvest, do I think it will go up next spring?  Short crop, long tail.  History doesn't usually support the high being much later than harvest,, does it?

My corn ear fill is quite varied.  Some what you'd expect, some very small and maybe won't make it if I dont' get rain by 1 Aug, and some that is shot.  Pollination  was good.  No weed or bug pressure so far.  I did some fungacide "just because" using what was left over from last year.

If I got 2" of rain, I could still ahve a decnt if not good crop.  But there is no sign and little reason to hope for that.

Senior Contributor
too close for comfort
Posts: 224
Registered: ‎05-11-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk July 20

Hi Mike: Congrats on the boys. Your weekend plans are completely different now. When was the last time beans were in this area and why don't we see headlines like "automobiles hit new all time high, the highest they have been since the 80s"

Senior Contributor
too close for comfort
Posts: 224
Registered: ‎05-11-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk July 20

Hi Jim: How in the heck do you set you corn head for a harvest like this?