07-22-2014 06:04 AM - edited 07-22-2014 03:04 PM
First Tractor: I'm helping a co-worker here. She started a thread asking What was your first tractor?
USDA announced Tuesday fresh sales of soybean meal, soyoil and soybean cake:
Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:
At the close:
The Dec. corn futures settled 3 3/4 cents lower at $3.68.
Nov. soybean futures settled 13 3/4 cents lower at $10.57.
Sep. wheat futures closed 5 1/2 cents lower at $5.24.
The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $5.10 per short ton lower at $341.70. The Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.23 lower at $36.03.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.39 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 66 points higher.
Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group senior grain analyst, says the trade is quiet.
"Hi, been very slow here and hardly even a turnaround Tuesday going on. We got a lot of people on the sidelines, but at least we are seeing some consumptive buying here. I know we have seen in in the soy complex the last couple of days, but we are seeing it in corn too, as I am buying here and there for some of my peeps in corn. Even the farmers are bearish! They got lots to sell though, both corn and beans. But it has been a fairly low volume day and people are seeming to wait for either lower prices to buy or maybe a quick rally to sell. They do not seem to be getting either. I figure us brokers will have to come up with something to get some volume going here and soon."
I just had a conversation with a grain analyst that shared these thoughts. In his own words:
"I just traveled 3,100 miles through the Midwest and back home. The corn crop looks phenomenal, but the soybean crop will need some help.
Regarding the corn crop, the amount of second ears that I saw, is certainly going to prove to be a bonus for some of these farmers. It will put them over the top, this year.
I heard the sweetcorn argument for early indications for fieldcorn, from more than one farmer. I can see a 172 bu./acre yield on 83.8 million acres, giving us a 14.4 billion bushel crop.
I know Doane is touting strong soybean yields already. But, I'm still a little cautious.
Regarding corn demand, I think it is inelastic not elastic, right now. I spoke with a source in China, he didn't want to be quoted, but he says China is full on corn. They recently auctioned off some 2011 corn and couldn't find a buyer. And, he says that MIR and DDG claim by the Chinese is simply a "convenient excuse". So, I don't think they will be there to buy this big crop. My question is where will all these crops go?"
What do you think?
The Dec. corn futures are trading 2 3/4 cents lower at $3.69.
Nov. soybean futures are trading 1 cent lower at $10.70.
Sep. wheat futures are 2 1/2 cents lower at $5.27.
The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.90 per short ton lower at $345.90. The Dec. soyoil futures are $0.02 higher at $36.28.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.31 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 70 points higher.
In early trading:
The Dec. corn futures are trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $3.73.
Nov. soybean futures are trading 6 3/4 cents higher at $10.78.
Sep. wheat futures are 3 cents higher at $5.33.
The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $3.20 per short ton higher at $350.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.22 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 78 points higher.
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 3-5 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil=$0.39 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen higher as earnings reports take over vs. Ukraine, Midddle East turmoil.
World Markets=Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.
More in a minute,
07-22-2014 11:58 AM
Some analyst that you interviewed a couple years ago said, and I remember it well because it sounded so dramatic, "somebody is going to have to go without corn." Now it's "where will all this corn go?" Funny how cycles work that way.
07-22-2014 01:23 PM
07-22-2014 01:27 PM
We talked about storage. He made the comment that very little commercial storage has been added in the last 5 years. Commercials saw farmers putting up bins, so they didn't. But, and this is where it gets interesting. Once farmers sock away all that they can on the farm, they will be going to town to fill up the commercial bins.
07-22-2014 02:12 PM
I call B.S. on "No new storage" total lie. Take a drive through central Iowa, use ALL your fingers to count all the new 3/4 of a million bu or more bin sites at many of the elevators . Start at Minburn, Iowa and go north to Clear Lake, Iowa. If you take the right highways you will use ALL your fingers . They are still shineny New.in the last few years.
Many replaced a pile on the ground disaster area. Those were just temperary. We are talking permanent long term storage capability facilities.
As for southern Iowa you might call the Afton farmers co-op and ask them how many New 250,000 or bigger bins they have put up in the last few years and have scheduled for erection in the near future.
07-22-2014 02:33 PM
The thud noise that the market is creating is being heard 'round the world. A broker in Argentina just shared these thoughts with me, moments ago.
"Lower prices are complicating things over here. For example, we still have 33 MMT on-farm storage that now value U.S.$ 2.700 millions less (vs end May). Argentina is on trial with holdouts funds from our 2001 default and the amount in discussion is US$ 1.500 millions !!
Things are not good for corn either…," he says.
07-22-2014 06:42 PM - edited 07-22-2014 07:03 PM
Checked the Afton co-op
Macksburg 1. 250,000, 1. 400,000
My Ayr, 3. 400,000
Osceola. 2. 400,000
Total. 2.65 million bu here In extreme southern Iowa of new commercial storage
Yes there have been quarter million+ farmer setups built here in the county too.
These are just the new ones, doesn't count their cement silos, large flat storage buildings, and older sites in Afton, Creston, and Osceola., or Arispie.
This has all happened at the expense of stock cows. Pastures and hay ground just plowed up.