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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk July 22

[ Edited ]

First Tractor: I'm helping a co-worker here. She started a thread asking What was your first tractor?

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At 2pm;

USDA announced Tuesday fresh sales of soybean meal, soyoil and soybean cake:

 

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

  • Export sales of 225,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2014/2015 marketing year; and 
  • Export sales of 180,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for delivery to Vietnam during the 2014/2015 marketing year; and
  • Export sales of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2014/2015 marketing year.

Mike

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At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 3 3/4 cents lower at $3.68.

 

Nov. soybean futures settled 13 3/4 cents lower at $10.57.

Sep. wheat futures closed 5 1/2 cents lower at $5.24.

 

The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $5.10 per short ton lower at $341.70. The Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.23 lower at $36.03.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.39 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 66 points higher.

 

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group senior grain analyst, says the trade is quiet.

 

"Hi, been very slow here and hardly even a turnaround Tuesday going on.  We got a lot of people on the sidelines, but at least we are seeing some consumptive buying here.  I know we have seen in in the soy complex the last couple of days, but we are seeing it in corn too, as I am buying here and there for some of my peeps in corn.  Even the farmers are bearish!  They got lots to sell though, both corn and beans.  But it has been a fairly low volume day and people are seeming to wait for either lower prices to buy or maybe a quick rally to sell.  They do not seem to be getting either.  I figure us brokers will have to come up with something to get some volume going here and soon."

 

Mike

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At 11:30am:

I just had a conversation with a grain analyst that shared these thoughts. In his own words:

 

"I just traveled 3,100 miles through the Midwest and back home. The corn crop looks phenomenal, but the soybean crop will need some help.
Regarding the corn crop, the amount of second ears that I saw, is certainly going to prove to be a bonus for some of these farmers. It will put them over the top, this year.
I heard the sweetcorn argument for early indications for fieldcorn, from more than one farmer.  I can see a 172 bu./acre yield on 83.8 million acres, giving us a 14.4 billion bushel crop.
I know Doane is touting strong soybean yields already. But, I'm still a little cautious.
Regarding corn demand, I think it is inelastic not elastic, right now. I spoke with a source in China, he didn't want to be quoted, but he says China is full on corn. They recently auctioned off some 2011 corn and couldn't find a buyer. And, he says that MIR and DDG claim by the Chinese is simply a "convenient excuse". So, I don't think they will be there to buy this big crop. My question is where will all these crops go?"

 

What do you think?

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 2 3/4 cents lower at $3.69.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 1 cent lower at $10.70.

Sep. wheat futures are 2 1/2 cents lower at $5.27.

 

The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.90 per short ton lower at $345.90. The Dec. soyoil futures are $0.02 higher at $36.28.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.31 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 70 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 9:15am;

In early trading:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $3.73.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 6 3/4 cents higher at $10.78.

Sep. wheat futures are 3 cents higher at $5.33.

 

The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $3.20 per short ton higher at $350.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.22 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 78 points higher.

 

Mike

-----------

At 6:00am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 3-5 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

Brent Crude Oil=$0.39 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen higher as earnings reports take over vs. Ukraine, Midddle East turmoil.

World Markets=Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike    

Veteran Contributor
glenlivet18
Posts: 127
Registered: ‎06-17-2011
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Re: Floor Talk July 22

Some analyst that you interviewed a couple years ago said, and I remember it well because it sounded so dramatic, "somebody is going to have to go without corn."  Now it's "where will all this corn go?"  Funny how cycles work that way. 

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,604
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: Floor Talk July 22

A grain analyst touting second ears?   Does he need an agronomy lesson?   :smileywink:

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 22

He admitted that he didn't know what to think of the second ear talk. But, he said he couldn't ignore how many he was seeing.

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
farsider
Posts: 184
Registered: ‎06-28-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk July 22

In 2012 the US imported 4.125 MMT, china has exceeded that number only 3 times, 1994,2011 and 2013. They start going over a million MT consistently since 2011. We here in the US have been a larger importer then China over the years even though we are the largest producer. It's just lately that China's needs are outstripping there ability to provide for themselves. Unlike soybeans they are not even in the top ten importers of corn and until recently they weren't even in the top 50. Yes they will become more important as the years go along but as of now shouldn't he worry what 95 other importing countries will do let alone what other producing countries will do with the decline in price?
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 22

glen livet18,

 

We talked about storage. He made the comment that very little commercial storage has been added in the last 5 years. Commercials saw farmers putting up bins, so they didn't. But, and this is where it gets interesting. Once farmers sock away all that they can on the farm, they will be going to town to fill up the commercial bins.

 

Mike

 

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,130
Registered: ‎01-10-2012

Re: Floor Talk July 22

I call B.S. on "No new storage"  total lie. Take a drive through central Iowa, use ALL your fingers to count all the new 3/4 of a million bu or more bin sites at many of the elevators . Start at Minburn, Iowa and go north to Clear Lake, Iowa. If you take the right highways you will use ALL your fingers . They are still shineny New.in the last few years. 

 

Many replaced a pile on the ground disaster area. Those were just temperary. We are talking permanent long term storage capability facilities.

 

As for southern Iowa you might call the Afton farmers co-op and ask them how many New 250,000 or bigger bins they have put up in the last few years and have scheduled for erection in the near future. 

 

.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 22

The thud noise that the market is creating is being heard 'round the world. A broker in Argentina just shared these thoughts with me, moments ago.

 

"Lower prices are complicating things over here. For example, we still have 33 MMT on-farm storage that now value U.S.$ 2.700 millions less (vs end May). Argentina is on trial with holdouts funds from our 2001 default and the amount in discussion is US$ 1.500 millions !!
 
Things are not good for corn either…," he says.

 

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,130
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk July 22

[ Edited ]

Checked the Afton co-op

Macksburg 1. 250,000,  1.  400,000

My Ayr,  3.   400,000

Osceola. 2.  400,000

 

Total.  2.65 million bu here In extreme southern Iowa of new commercial storage

 

Yes there have been quarter million+ farmer setups built here in the county too.

 

These are just the new ones, doesn't count their cement silos, large flat storage buildings, and older sites in Afton, Creston, and Osceola., or Arispie.

 

 

This has all happened at the expense of stock cows.  Pastures and hay ground just plowed up. 

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Contributor
llakmf
Posts: 87
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk July 22

hobby, do you think it is permenet. Or, do you think the cows are gone for good.