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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk July 24

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Sept. futures corn contract settled 14 cents lower at $5.08. New-crop Dec. corn futures closed 5 cent lower at $4.80. The Aug. soybean futures contract finished 70 cents lower at $13.92, new-crop Nov. soybeans finished 3 cents lower at $12.56. Sept. wheat futures closed 1 cent lower at $6.53 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures finished $.57 lower at $44.11. The Dec. soymeal futures settled $0.30 per short ton lower at $380.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.09 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 53 points lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Sept. futures corn contract is 7 cents lower at $5.15. New-crop Dec. corn futures are 1 cent lower at $4.85. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 48 cents lower at $14.14, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 4 cents higher at $12.64. Sept. wheat futures are trading 3 cents higher at $6.57 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $.57lower at $44.11. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $3.80 per short ton higher at $384.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.09 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 51 points lower.

 

One analyst says that it looks like corn and soybeans are moving lower as farmers seem to like the condition of the crops.  
"The weather is good. So, at least some bins are getting emptied out and the old crop is in total collapse right now, or was anyway.  I think spreads are supporting the new crop as much as anything, as old crop-new crop spreads get liquidated.  
There is not much demand news, except in world wheat where North Africa, Egypt and Algeria, were buying overnight with good volumes.  
"It's been quiet here today, kind of weird considering the price action," he says.  
New crop will continue to drift lower on the weather over time, he says.  "We still need a late Fall. But, if we get one we could have some big crops this year.  We have seen this type of old crop collapse before. The bulls, or the buyers, will need to get after it now if they want prices to move higher again.  I am thinking that most of the old crop demand is getting priced out.  Once the old crop buying by end users gets to new crop, watch out below!"

 

Mike

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In early trading:

The Sept. futures corn contract is 3 cents lower at $5.19. New-crop Dec. corn futures are 1 cent higher at $4.86. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 35 cents lower at $14.27, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 5 cents higher at $12.65. Sept. wheat futures are trading 4 cents higher at $6.57 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $.31lower at $44.37. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $3.10 per short ton higher at $383.90.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.09 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 48 points lower.

 

Mike

-----

At 8:10am:

 

--Taiwan Surgar Corp. to buy 23,000 tons of old crop U.S. corn, and 12,000 tons of old crop U.S. soybeans.

--S. Korea buys 120,000 tons of optional origin corn Wednesday. Some will be of Black Sea origin.

--Recently, Japan has bought  a total of 300,000 tons of Brazil, Ukraine corn to be delivered in Oct-Dec. timeframe.

 

 

Mike

--------

At 7:25am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower (old-crop), soybeans 13-15 cents lower (old-crop), and wheat 3-5 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 1-2 cents higher and soybeans are seen 6-8 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mixed.
Crude Oil=$0.09 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen higher, as Apple reports strong earnings and the euro zone releases solid data.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed and Europe's stocks are higher.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
0

No sense in this market action

This is one of the worst market actions that I have seen in 13 years of farmer for a living.  That includes the 50% fall in soybean prices in 2004 between June and October.    What the trade needs to realize and all the others in the system that I really don' t think we will raise trend lines yields again this year on corn.   I think it will be better then last year but not trend line.   Nearby beans down the limit again.  As of July 1st there was how many million acres not emerged yet?  And to top it all off we are exporting grains again. I'm sure there will be a bean exports again tomorrow. 

The commericals got bull headed about bidding up because they know how short the old crop is and I think that helped stall the bulls on the futures and then the bears got going and away we went.    And they can' t go beyond bidding on the new crop months since when you get out farther the prices go higher again.   KInda tells you something doesn't it.  

I got a good rain where I live, where most of the acres are, But I went to the other place last evening and was disappointed, I got out of the pickup and could smell the corn cooking yet.  Not even a good shower there.  Even with highs in the low 80's as dry as we are the corn is still hurting.  


I've never seen a trade so eager on beating this price down on grains as well.   Yes everyone knew that $7 corn wasn't going to last forever,   LIke I've said before the price of corn has 3 parts to its supply and demand,   value of currencies, outside investor money,  Right now the outside investor money is not interested in owning commodities, and down we go.   

 

The consumer is really taking it on the chin with this gas prices and crude oil, all I've heard is less demand for gasoline, now we have oil back up or over the $100/barrel mark????  

To many questions without any solid answers.   

 

Senior Contributor
SouthWestOhio
Posts: 519
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: No sense in this market action

It's awful quiet on here today. Is there some hand wringing going on?
Veteran Contributor
infire
Posts: 83
Registered: ‎07-07-2010
0

Re: No sense in this market action

This bleeding is way over done, the supposed rain did nothing to change old crop situation & they were already telling us we have a huge crop growing so why the nose dive?

 

Senior Contributor
hanktbd
Posts: 239
Registered: ‎01-08-2013
0

Re: No sense in this market action

My co-op bids for cash soys down $1.70 since yesterday morning. How crazy is that? Guessing cash bids will regain some basis over the next few days unless farmer panic selling ensues.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: No sense in this market action

Farmer-selling has ensued. It's part of the reason the market is falling, according to the marketwatchers I talk to.

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,034
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

“marketing mayhem”

--------------------------------------------------------------    

MARKET COMMENTARY July 24, 2013

 

By Raymond Jenkins

 

A second day of “marketing mayhem” in corn and bean markets, and it affected basis values and futures, especially the front month September corn contract and the August soybean contract (which closed down the 70 cent limit, something we have not seen for a long time.

 

The Eddyville corn basis has dropped 50 cents over a three day period of time, and the amount of corn that has been sold into this market in the past week has been quite large, especially so when considering the light pace we have been on most of the summer.

 

I wish I had some great advice for those of you holding old crop corn and waiting for a sharp move higher in corn basis---but our bid tonight is STILL at the equivalent of $1.58 OVER the December futures contract, which means it is still at historically high values with a lot of value still to erode over the next 75-85 days as we get into the bulk of harvest activity.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: “marketing mayhem”

Here comes China..... Our crops are "on sale" again.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Contributor
Mike central IA
Posts: 120
Registered: ‎07-05-2011
0

Re: “marketing mayhem”

The Chinese have sure learned how to manipulate the markets. We are getting beat at our own game.