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07-26-2013 07:11 AM - edited 07-26-2013 01:41 PM
At the close:
The Sept. futures corn contract settled 4 cents lower at $4.92. New-crop Dec. corn futures finished 3 cents lower at $4.76. The Aug. soybean futures contract finished 6 cents lower at $13.49, new-crop Nov. soybeans closed 5 cents higher at $12.28. Sept. wheat futures finished 1 cent higher at $6.50 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures closed $4.40 per short ton higher at $369.90. The Dec. soyoil futures finished $0.12 lower at $43.73.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.64 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 54 points lower.
The Sept. futures corn contract is 1 cent lower at $4.95. New-crop Dec. corn futures are 2 cents lower at $4.76. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 4 cents lower at $13.51, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 1 cent lower at $12.33. Sept. wheat futures are trading 1 cent higher at $6.50 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $1.00 per short ton higher at $366.50. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.11 lower at $43.74.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.52 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 93 points lower.
It's a two-sided trading day. Soybeans and wheat are a bit higher, corn is slightly lower. Meanwhile, here's a first-hand crop condition report from a reputable agronomist. He sent this to me this morning. I thought you might find it interesting. In his own words:
"Here is a little update on my outlook on the current crop conditions as of July 25, 2013. The crops in the northern half of Illinois have really improved in the last 30-45 days. Several areas are witnessing the best looking crops at this time of the year they have ever seen. From reports from friends and clients the crops in Indiana and Ohio are looking excellent, for the most part. I traveled to Omaha, Nebraska, and then to Southwest Iowa two weeks ago and the crops in Iowa along Interstate 80 and into Southern Iowa are late, but at the moment looking pretty good.
However, there are areas in the Corn Belt that have not witnessed the kind of blessings seen in the Eastern Corn Belt, Northern Illinois and the Southern half of Iowa. Northern Iowa, Minnesota, North and South Dakota, Central and Northern Wisconsin, and Southern Illinois have experienced late planting and some areas that did not get planted. The Western Corn Belt is experiencing dry weather conditions. I feel that the reporting mechanisms have not fully reflected the impact that these weaker areas have on our production potential.
Here in Central Illinois I have just witnessed in the last two or three days some real weaknesses showing up in some corn fields. Pollination has just finished or is in the process of completion, and it is now that maximum nutrient uptake is taking place during the process of kernel fill. What I am witnessing is rapidly developing Nitrogen deficiencies. I think this is an indication of the problem we had a couple of months ago with torrential rains and ponding throughout the Corn Belt. In the areas where these rains were the worst, there has been serious Nitrogen loss. Those growers who chose not to use supplemental sources of Nitrogen fertilizer applications later in the season are at risk of not having adequate Nitrogen to finish out this crop.
Nitrogen deficiencies will certainly affect yields if the deficiencies are significant. However, even if yield loss does not occur directly from Nitrogen deficiencies, plants are in a susceptible state where other problems can occur. Nitrogen deficiencies can contribute to a plant’s vulnerability to fungal diseases and to insect attack. I urge you to scout your fields diligently to look for these problems as well as any other crop problems.
What I feel right now is that we could see conditions very similar to the 1995 crop. That is a crop that has a very good appearance, but in the end falls apart. My guts tell me that the crop looks a whole lot better than it actually is, but the worst thing that can happen would be an early frost on this late crop."
At the open:
The Sept. futures corn contract is 1 cent higher at $4.97. New-crop Dec. corn futures are 1 cent higher at $4.97. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 1 cent higher at $13.56, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 1 cent higher at $12.24. Sept. wheat futures are trading 5 cents higher at $6.54 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $3.80 per short ton higher at $369.30. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.19 lower at $43.66.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.60 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 66 points lower.
--USDA announces Friday that an 'unknown' bought 211,328 tons of U.S. corn.
--USDA announces Friday that China bought 220,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14 delivery.
--S. Korea has bought 750,000 tons of corn, wheat in the last nine days. But, not all from the U.S.
This is what happens when you knock the market back as much as we have this week. I mean, let's just take soymeal, for instance. Since Monday, that market has closed 'limit' down three days in a row and has fallen $100/ton. .
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher (old-crop), soybeans 3-5 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 6-8 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 2-4 cents higher and soybeans are seen 3-5 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.09 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen lower, as earnings data is quiet and investors have turned their attention to next week's two-day Fed Policy meetings.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed-to-lower and Europe's stocks are mixed-to-lower. China's efforts to overhaul its industrial sector is hurting world stocks.
More in a minute,
07-26-2013 07:25 AM
Still can't buy spot corn from my local elevator for under 6. the cash bid is 5.57 this morning. they always add 50 cents to it if I am buying. Hopefully these meal prices come down soon to. Got 3 tenths last night made me feel real good.
07-26-2013 08:01 AM
The front moved thru with only a sprinkle, disappointing again in N. Illinois. After adding up all the tenths, we have had only about 8 tenths for July. I know many places are dry, and rain in July makes corn. We look better than last year, but will we finish much better. The 2009 frost hurt us bad and this year seems eerily similar. High of 68 forecast for tomorrow( July 27 !!!!!), and that's not under a rain cloud. Northern cornbelt to be cool in 6-10, 8-14. Watch out.
07-26-2013 01:04 PM
From my own blog:
Safras & Mercado, a consultancy based in Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, has released a new projection for the 2013/2014 corn and soybean crop season in Brazil. The consultancy forecasts that Brazil will increase 3.7 percent of its soybean are compared to the previous crop, occupying nearly 71.5 million acres with the oilseed. If this figures are confirmed later on, the amount produced would reach 88.1 million tons – 7.4 percent more than in 2012/2013.
“Productivity generated by higher technogy is at 3.04 tons/ha, much higher than the current 2.9 tons/ha, but is below the 2011 records”, analyzed França Júnior, market analyst at Safras & Mercado.
Corn would have, according to Safra & Mercado, its area reduced in Brazil to approximately 13.05 million acres, which is 10.1 percent lower. Considering the weather conditions, the second corn crop is estimated at 42.6 million tons – also lower than in 2012/2013.