07-30-2013 08:34 AM
07-30-2013 08:40 AM
We won't see any big rally in corn even with this dryness and problems with crops untl November at the earliest. This cool weather helps ALOT, there are places in my area that have caught some rain the last week or so. The corn that got planted early in my area though is "tipped back" ,lose of kernels, they tell me 2 inches from the tip. I haven't actually seen it, My corn I planted starting the 15th of May, so it isn't far enough long to see if we had any heat stress.
I took it hard on this basis break both old and new crop that I don't have priced yet. I thought for sure I had until mid august before this basis broke this hard. I haven't price anything in a month and now waiting for short covering rally. If I can get cash in my area back around that $6 mark I'll sell some or most of what I got left.
Bottom line is we will raise a corn crop this year... At least on USDA paper
07-30-2013 08:48 AM - edited 07-30-2013 08:51 AM
07-30-2013 08:52 AM
That IL soil wouldn't be worth so much money if it were all shallow. If you were to dig that hole down 2' plus and it be dry the. I'd be concerned. I think last year showed us the importance of roots over rain.
Not trying to argue a bunch but I feel dry to 8" isn't a huge concern as we always hear corn is made in July so with successful pollination they must be home free. Now if those roots don't go down far yes we have problems but then this guy wouldn't be forecasting 7% above trend line????
07-30-2013 09:56 AM - edited 07-30-2013 09:57 AM
He has salt. We did a root check. He would like to more of them and see them longer.
I was waiting to put this in my slideshow. But, since you couldn't wait, I'm happy to share with you the root ball.
07-30-2013 10:06 AM
A grain of salt is what that DUDE is worth.
Backyarditis is very apparent in the statements he is credited with.
4% unharvested I will not argue with right now.
0% under trendline. . . PURE BS. Give me a break, the dude lives in la la land.
Does he really think nobody raises under 150 bu corn? Millions of acres make under
that #, this year especially will be NO exception.
Does he moonlite as a USDFA employee?
His initials would not have been RSW would they?
0% credibility at this location.
PS: Growers pay good hard money to these kinds of people?
07-30-2013 10:38 AM
Dave Mowers has certainly seen a lot in his day............he also has lived and worked in some of the most productive soils in IL and the world for that matter.........especially out his backdoor..........
that said............he is somewhat blinded by reality of 90+M acres...........when it was 75M and stark county was pumping out 240+ field averages its easy to say, yep things are great..........
fact is, there will always be good corn in parts of IL and IA...........fact two is, the first 40+ of cream yield comes off very very quickly for all acres, including those that shoot for 200 and those that shoot for 100...............especially when the sins of a late spring are punished by the woes of little rain and threat of not finishing..........
there is some really green looking corn from the road that has some serious issues inside the field............like 2-4 inches of tip back...........throw in some N and K stress and you have an average crop.........PLUS and HUGE CHUNCK of IA that is a real mess...........its like losing your best field and we all know how that can pull on averages..........
2000-2012 the nat average is 146..............so take 146 and start chopping............we may not run outta corn, but 14B is once again a joke and 2B+ carryout is not in the cards........
07-30-2013 10:43 AM
Hard to sleep in the hospital. Did some looking at the weather maps and will report in a bit. Percocet at three AM did the trick though.