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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk July 30

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures closed 1/2 of a cent higher at $3.71.

 

Nov. soybean futures finished 13 3/4 cents lower at $10.81.

Sep. wheat futures ended 7 1/4 cents higher at $5.27.

 

December soymeal futures settled $5.70 per short ton lower at $348.60. The December soyoil contracts closed $0.14 lower at $36.39.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.79 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21 points lower.

 

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says the market is reading the weather.

"Soybeans are pure weather plus no new demand announcements today.  The weather forecasts keep getting better for the first part of August and the market is reacting in a big way.  But, the market is still in a range.  We will be looking more and more for demand as we move forward and feel better about the crop.  The Doane tour wrapped up and likes the potential for beans, but notes that we need some good weather from here on out.  So far the forecasts are cooperating.  The market is finding spec selling, I doubt any of my farmers are selling or if they are they are not telling me.  Corn seems to have nowhere to go right now, but will probably weaken if the soy stays bad.  No real interest either way in corn, the crop should be about made and no real demand news out there so nothing to do.  Not sure why wheat is higher, maybe some ideas that the sanctions will force some biz here.  But, really, it is the crop in western Europe that should support the market.  Russia keeps pushing the prices lower, but the EU crop is too wet and needs some hot and dusty.  Nothing like that really showing in the forecasts, either, so maybe wheat can grab here as the demand for higher quality would shift here and to Canada."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 1/2 of a cent higher at $3.71.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 9 3/4 cents lower at $10.85.

Sep. wheat futures are 4 1/4 cents higher at $5.24.

 

December soymeal futures are trading $3.40 per short ton lower at $350.90. The December soyoil contracts are $0.36 lower at $36.17.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.07 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 68 points higher.

 

Mike

----------

At the open:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 3 3/4 cents lower at $3.67.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 10 cents lower at $10.79.

Sep. wheat futures are 3/4 of a cent higher at $5.33.

 

August soymeal and soyoil contracts are lower Wednesday.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.07 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 68 points higher.

 

Mike

--------

At 8:15am:

Wow, I thought the U.S. Grains Council meeting was enlightening. I have a lot of post-meeting thoughts. I'll start a separate thread on this, later today. Dan Looker, Agriculture.com's Business Editor highlights the growing DDG potential in Mexico to replace China. And, don't miss the final line of this story and tell me what you think. I think you will be very surprised at what Dan found out at this meeting.

Full story: Mexico Looks To Divert U.S. DDG Exports From China

 

Mike

-----------

Here are some world corn harvest estimates released today:

 

--Ukraine officials see their 2014 corn harvest falling 6% to 29.0 mmt, due to the Russian conflict, not weather.

--South Africa private forecasters swee 2014 corn harvest at 14.01 mmt.

--Russia officials peg 2014 grain (wheat, barley) harvest at 45.4 million tons.

 

Mike

-----------

--At 8am:

Fresh wheat demand checks in Wednesday. Here's the announcement:

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 205,500 metric tons of wheat to Nigeria.  Of the total, 151,500 metric tons is hard red winter with 131,500 metric tons scheduled for delivery during the 2014/2015 marketing year and 20,000 metric tons scheduled for delivery during the 2015/2016 marketing year.  The remaining 54,000 metric tons is soft red winter wheat with 44,000 metric tons scheduled for delivery during the 2014/2015 marketing year and 10,000 metric tons scheduled for delivery during the 2015/2016 marketing year. 

The marketing year for wheat began June 1.

 

Mike

-------------

At 7:35am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 8-10 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.

Brent Crude Oil=$0.07 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen higher, as the U.S. Gross Domestic Product comes in at 4.0% vs. 3.2.% expected. U.S. private jobs added in July totaled 218,000, a weak number according to analysts.

World Markets=Europe stocks were mostly lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,590
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk July 30

Unapproved DDGs still being imported into China.................imagine that.

 

It looks to me that China still needs the protein.......

 

Somebody wake up the funds and the traders in Chicago........before we give away our supply.

 

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 30

Chicago doesn't care about farmers making money, and they certainly don't care about selling a product out at too cheap a price.  They are all about opportunity to make money - period.  Chicago is convinced that we have a huge crop out there, and nothing short of a big freeze event is going to change their minds at this point.  But again, it's not about supply and demand, the way I see it, as to conceived ideas as to what they are using to determine the crop.  And I'll guarentee you, what they are using to judge what these crop prospects are is not available to the rest of us.   It's inside trading taken to a whole other level in my book.  They have information we don't, they use it to the maximum advantage to move the markets to extremes that it really shouldn't move, and those of us outside of the extreme information age are left wondering why.  

 

Jen

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 30

jennys_mn,

 

I agree. The big money has rapid fire ways to trade, extensive research arms to trade information before it's news, and big money to swing the market one way or the other. Speaking of big money, I just received information on the outlook for Hedge Funds returns in 2014. It looks like they won't make as much as they did a year ago:

 

From Preqin, a data collecting firm: "99% of hedge fund managers and 98% of hedge fund investors believe 2014 year-end performance will not match 2013's benchmark return. Preqin interviewed 150 fund managers and 100 institutional investors in June 2014 to ascertain their outlook on the hedge fund industry as we entered the second half of the year. All but 1% of hedge fund managers predicted the All Hedge Funds benchmark would be 11% or less, below the 11.69% hedge funds returned in 2013. "

 

What do you think?

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,029
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk July 30

If they have all this magic handshake inside info about the crop and yields why are we fighting "city hall"?

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Contributor
cyclonegrain
Posts: 67
Registered: ‎05-16-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 30

I would be very interested to see your PROOF to this conspiracy theory.  Also, why is it anybodies responsibility to ensure that farmers (or any business owner for that matter) makes money?  Do you not take any responsibility for your own actions/decisions?  Utilizing the information we have at this point it would appear the crop is large.  I am not saying that information is correct or not.  That is for each to decipher on their own, but fighting the trend can be expensive.  I agree with MT on the "Peak Corn"!  It is gonna be peaked up in every bin, pile, shed, silo around here!  Lots of old crop moving now with freight tough to come by. 

Veteran Advisor
jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 30

It's not a conspiracy.  It's information.  It's information that money can buy from satellites that do a good job of seeing what's out there.  As the general public, we get to see the greeness maps - nationally.  But what if it's done on a county by county level, real time basis, computer generated projections of how the crop is doing all printed out on a nice sheet of paper that says buy or sell.  

 

People are always looking for ways to cheat the system.  Huge amounts of money are involved.  And to think that it isn't happening is simply closing one's senses down and saying, "I don't want to know." 

 

As far as proving it, you never will.  And maybe there is nothing to prove.  It's information.  With enough money, you can probably have it too.

 

Jen

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,127
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 30

[ Edited ]

Chicago does care for the farmer.  Without you there would be no markets.  

 

By the way, with electronic trading the traders are not all in Chicago.  Maybe we should move the exchange to Iowa and call it the Iowa Mercantile Exchange.  

 

Guess what? The same thing will happen.  

Senior Contributor
farsider
Posts: 184
Registered: ‎06-28-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk July 30

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,646
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk July 30

You guys jump to conclusions like a girl I know.

The comment was concerning our "supply" of commodities.

That has nothing to do with making money.  Farmers will find a way to loose money no matter what the price.  If they raise 200 bushel corn they will spend it all to try for 250.  They don't intend to make a profit.  They just like the gamble and the bragging rights.

 

Mike, 

 

The report I saw yesterday said funds were 170K + contracts long in the corn market --- gaining another 4000 contracts yesterday ---any truth to that???  Coming from a "stoner" so who knows.

 

 

 

 

 

sw