07-30-2013 06:44 AM - edited 07-30-2013 11:26 AM
The Sept. futures corn contract is 3 cents higher at $4.91. The Dec. corn futures are 2 cents higher at $4.75. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 9 cents lower at $13.58, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 7 cents lower at $12.12. Sept. wheat futures are trading 4 cents higher at $6.55 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $5.20 per short ton higher at $366.40. The Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.23 higher at $43.05.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.55 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 6 points higher.
At the open:
The Sept. futures corn contract is 4 cents higher at $4.93. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 11 cents higher at $13.79, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 4 cents higher at $12.24. Sept. wheat futures are trading 3 cents higher at $6.54 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures are trading $8.80 per short ton higher at $447.00. The Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.19 higher at $42.66.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.80 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 29 points higher.
--USDA announces that an 'unknown' buyer purchased 290,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14 delivery.
From Eureka, Illinois, here are the thoughts I gathered from a visit with a local farmer and his agronomist. Essentially,farmers are becoming less optimistic about crops that were planted late and that haven't had any sufficient rain for a month. The August weather is going to be critical to get this crop finished. With corn and soybean prices falling, the farmers are now faced with the decision to put more money into the crop by applying fungicide for the corn and spraying beans that are starting to see insect pressure.
The agronomist has pushed his pencil on this U.S. 2013 corn crop. And here's what he has come up with. With the critical crop-weather month of August ahead, he is projecting a U.S. 2013 corn crop yielding 7% above the trendline yield of 150 bushels per acre. He sees 10% of the U.S. corn crop averaging 225 bu./acre, 20% at 195 bu./acre, 20% averaging 165 bu./acre, 30% at 150 bu./acre, 16% of the corn crop averaging trendline and 4% recording no yield.
Here are two telling photos that I shot that represent the good and the bad of this year's crop. First, the good.
The agronomist demonstrated how the corn pollination was successful by showing how this ear had silks all the way to the tip:
The bad part of the crop growth story is happening underground. This photo shows how we had to dig down the blade of a shovel for any sign of moisture. And, I wasn't even impressed with that moisture at that depth. We needed to keep digging. This particular Woodford County, IL field hasn't seen any significant rainfall for a month.
I'll be posting a slideshow later today with more photos and information. Standby.
Early calls: Corn is seen 4-6 cents higher (old-crop), soybeans 5-7 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 6-8 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 4-6 cents higher and soybeans are seen 2-4 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.64 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen higher, ahead of more earnings and economic reports today.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed and Europe's stocks are higher.
More in a minute,
07-30-2013 07:52 AM
It looks like he has 80% of the corn in the good/excellent category........He's not worried about the dryness either apparently.
07-30-2013 08:00 AM
07-30-2013 08:03 AM
The thing is you can take that shovel and have the same result from NC-IN, NC-ILL, to Western Iowa with the exception of an Iowa 10 county area that got a 2" rain a couple weeks ago. It's sort of nice to see here what I have been seeing coming for weeks. You have the best prouction soils in the midwest that are under moderate drought stress but the cool weather is hiding it from the road. Just keep following I-80 for the same thing.
07-30-2013 08:18 AM
Mike, please ask this agronomist if timely planting (not June) and optimal seedbed (don't mud it in) are important to trendline yields. Seems to me he's found a way to break the rules and be successful.
07-30-2013 08:22 AM
Oh believe me. He knows the worst part of Illinois's corn is in the south. He admits that he hasn't seen the whole country. But, based on the people he talks to in his agronomy circles, I guess, although he didn't say that.
He knows his estimate is not scientific, just a feel like most of us.
07-30-2013 08:24 AM
I was under the impression that there was as much corn plant below the surface as above ground, and that the corn roots could go as much as 6-8 FEET below the surface. True or not??????