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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,889
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk July 8

[ Edited ]

At 3pm:

USDA Crop Progress Report Shows:

 

--Corn is rated 8% very poor-poor, 24% fair, and 68% good/excellent. Plus, 6% of the crop is silking vs. 20% five-year average.

--Soybeans are rated 67% good/excellent, 26% fair and 7% very poor-poor. USDA sees 95% of the crop as emerged vs. 100% a year ago. And 10% of the crop is in the bloom stage vs. 24% five-year average.

--57% of the winter wheat is harvested vs. a 64% five-year average.

 

Mike

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At the close:

The Sept. futures corn contract closed 7 cents higher at $5.33. New-crop Dec. corn futures finished 9 cents higher at $5.00. The Aug. soybean futures contract closed 24 cents higher at $14.56, new-crop Nov. soybeans closed 24 cents higher at $12.52.  Sept. wheat futures finished 3 cents higher at $6.63 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures ended $13.50short ton higher at $442.10. The Aug. soyoil futures closed $0.18 lower at $46.96.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.52 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 89 points higher.

 

Mike

---------

Heading towards the close:

 

One analyst says, "I think two things are supporting futures today, the first is some short covering as futures have fallen pretty hard in the last couple of weeks and we had some pretty excellent sales, especially the Chinese SRW purchase to support things.  The second is some short covering before the WASDE later this week and the crop ratings tonight.  Took a drive up to Wisconsin and the crops look good, but are very short and late.  This is true even in the eastern part of the state where it is dairy in a big way.  So, the crops are very late.  We got some storms moving across the Midwest the first half of the week and that will delay the SRW harvest and not do too much else I don’t think.  Some areas might get too much rain but I think this is staying more north and therefore won’t be all bad.  I have had some specs pulls offers and do some buying here, not much commercial action for me today.    The condition ratings will be good tonight but the crop is late and will need every day of pre freeze weather to get home now.  We got a chance for a real nice crop, not a bin buster maybe but still enough.  But, we beat the market up pretty good in the past couple of weeks and now we bounce a bit," he says.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Sept. futures corn contract is trading 6 cents higher at $5.31. New-crop Dec. corn futures are trading 7 cents higher at $4.98. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 7 cents higher at $14.38., new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 9 cents higher at $12.37.  Sept. wheat futures are trading 5 cents higher at $6.64 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures are trading $5.40 short ton higher at $434.00. The Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.18 lower at $46.96.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.03 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 81 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 10:45am:

 

The farm markets remain higher, Monday. The USDA's Weekly Export Inspections were mixed. For corn, the inspections came in below the trade's expectations, the bean number was within, and the wheat export inspections beat expectations.

 

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Sept. futures corn contract opened 4 cents higher at $5.30. New-crop Dec. corn futures opened 6 cents higher at $4.97. The Aug. soybean futures contract opened 3 cents higher at $14.35., new-crop Nov. soybeans opened 13 cents higher at $12.41.  Sept. wheat futures started 10 cents higher at $6.70 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures opened $3.20 short ton higher at $431.90. The Aug. soyoil futures opened $0.13 lower at $47.01.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.91 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 75 points higher.

 

Mike

---------------
At 8am:

 

Whoa!!! Somebody hit the DEMAND button. Here we go:

 

--USDA announces Monday that China bought 840,000 tons of U.S. SRW wheat for 2013-14 delivery.

--USDA announces Monday that China bought 120,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14 delivery.

--USDA announces Monday that an 'unknown' bought 135,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14.

--USDA announces Monday that Mexico bought 120,000 tons of U.S. corn for 2013-14.

 

How does that demand help this week's markets? I think the wheat buy was rumored Friday.

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

Jeff Coleman, The Trean Group analyst and CME Group floor trader, says the market is setting up for Thursday's WASDE Report. "After being down Friday the big three grain markets are all higher in the overnight session as traders gear up for Thursday’s 11:00 AM CST release of the USDA WASDE report."

 

Mike

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At 6:45am:

 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 2-4 cents higher (old-crop), soybeans 1-2 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 2-4 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 3-5 cents higher and soybeans are seen 8-10 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.27 per barrel higher
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen higher, as second quarter earnings season gets started.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower and Europe's stocks are higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,889
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 8

[ Edited ]

I spent some time in central Illinois, over the weekend. I saw everything from wheat being harvested to weedy soybean fields being sprayed, to some replanting. But, overall, my assessment is that the crops look to be in pretty good shape. Here are a few photos from McLean County:

 

McLean Corn.jpg

 

McLean Corn 2.jpg

 

McLean Crops 3.jpg

 

I talked to a few local farmers. They are fairly happy with their crop progress. They seem to be in a 'thankful' mode, since last year this area experienced below average crops. And I was told the real 'disaster'-looking crops are in southern Illinois. The heavy weed pressure that you see in the photos is being attended to, according to one local farmer. I was there for about 3 1/2 days, and during that time it seemed like the corn grew 6-inches or so. I mean it really took off in the past week.

 

Mike

Veteran Contributor
docharing
Posts: 130
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 8

Good Morning Mike,

Over the weekend I drove from Central Ohio 125 miles northwest to the Michigan line. Our corn is in excellent shape, good color nice stands but not one tassel! We usually start by July 4th. Today marks the 18th day in a row of rain. The soybeans are having a tough time, lots of yellowing, drown areas and thin stands. We have had way too much rain for our beans. Winter wheat looks good but only 1 field in 125 miles was harvested, usually we cut by July 4. I won't even start on the hay crop troubles we have had! Very concerned we turn off dry with shallow rooting in our crops, August could really be tough.

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 749
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 8

Here in SENE we where 94 yesterday with a south wind the corn was rolling on some spots, my continuous corn was hurting, still has good color though,  corn on soybean ground was showing a little stress yesterday.  the neighbors corn is starting to see just a few silks this morning.   Maybe the late planted corn might be better this year, who knows I guess.  

The beans are thin in places, we replanted some a week ago, for some reason they just now come up. 

From last year we are no worst off, except from the corn being planted way later.  We are WAY better off in the hay department this year.  

 

NO wheat has been combined yet,  not for sure why.  

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,889
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk July 8

docharing,

 

Good to hear from you. Yes, I understand there can be some big differences in what the crop looks like between Ohio and Illinois. It seems like you may have a spot of the 'garden spot' this year. The crop-weather looks favorable for all of the Midwest, in the next 6-10 days. I imagine that once the market participants get themselves positioned for the Thursday WASDE Report, the favorable weather will be traded. Unless demand keeps walking through the U.S. corn & soybean stores, this market could be looking for a bottom soon. I know that many think the damage is already done. And for some folks, that is certainly true. But, a lot of crops have improved tremendously lately.

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,426
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk July 8

[ Edited ]

Mike,  Here in NW Ohio, we have recieved 4-8" of rain in the last week to 10 days.   The soybean crop is turning yellow everywhere.  The wheat harvest is in very serious trouble.....virtually none harvested yet.   Forecast is for more rain here.....that news is very bad for the time being.   The corn will begin to pollinate this week with a few tassels starting to show.  Low areas of the corn fields are hurting too.    Maybe we were the garden spot.......but not any more.

 

 

Most everywhere we are one weather event away from a real disaster......

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Contributor
hanktbd
Posts: 213
Registered: ‎01-08-2013
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Re: Floor Talk July 8

[ Edited ]

Mike,

 

I farm about 2 miles from the Mclean County Line. We are in the "thankful" mode because a few weeks ago these crops looked like a disaster in the making. Looking much, much better now BUT, look closely at your corn picture. Corn is very uneven plant to plant not to mention field area to field area. Not good for yields. Crops are planted late. Normal year that field is tasseling now and those beans have closed the rows. Not good for high yields. Lots of drownouts, compacted areas, thin stands, and replants hidden by the growing crop now. Not good for high yields. Some fields starting to show N loss as they reach maximum N use period. Not good for yields. You get the picture. With good weather from here to harvest our yields will be 15% to 20% below average,but not a disaster like we saw last year and were seeing a month ago so yes, we are "thankful".