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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The July corn futures closed 9 cents lower at $5.83, while the Dec. contract settled 15 cents lower at $5.19. The July soybean contract settled 9 3/4 cents higher $14.34 1/2, while the Nov. 2012 contract finished 6 3/4 cents higher at $13.38. The July wheat futures settled 14 cents lower at $6.16 1/2. July soyoil futures settled $0.09 lower at $49.65. The July soymeal futures closed $5.50 higher at $433.50. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.42 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 123 points higher.

 

Mike

--------

At mid-day:

The July corn futures trade 11 1/2 cents lower at $5.80 1/2, while the Dec. contract trades 14 3/4 cents lower at $5.19 1/4. The July soybean contract is trading 11 1/2 cents higher $14.36 1/2, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 7 1/4 cents higher at $13.38 1/2. The July wheat futures are trading 15 cents lower at $6.15 1/2. July soyoil futures trade $0.05 lower at $49.69. The July soymeal futures are trading $5.20 higher at $433.20. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.35 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 97 points higher.

 

One grain analyst, says, "The traders bought the lower crop condition ratings and lower ending stocks, giving us higher trade twice today, while sellers pushed us lower on a big rain event in the Midwest for Sunday to Wednesday. There's lots to buy and sell today. When we come in Wednesday they will say what report, how's the weather, as weather is 90% of our pricing influence."

 

Mike

---------

At 10:35am:

Beans have jumped higher again. What a rollercoaster today. Soybeans are up 11 cents.

 

Mike

--------

At 9:45am:

Everything is lower. Wheat is down 12 cents, due to know big surprises in the USDA Report Tuesday. Corn is down 8 in July, 13 lower in the Dec. contract. Soybeans are 1 cent lower in the July, and 2 cents lower in the Nov.

 

Mike

--------

At the open:

The July corn futures trade 13 1/2 cents lower at $5.78 1/2, while the Dec. contract trades 14 3/4 cents lower at $5.19 1/4. The July soybean contract is trading 6 3/4 cents higher $14.31 1/2, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 3 1/2 cents higher at $13.34. The July wheat futures are trading 2 1/2 cents lower at $6.28. July soyoil futures trade $0.02 lower at $49.72. The July soymeal futures opened $3.20 higher at $431.20. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.57 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are seen opening higher.

 

Mike

---------------

At 7:30am:

 

USDA REPORT NUMBERS:
U.S. Carryout

Corn=(2011-12) 851 million, (2012-13) 1.88 billion bushels. Report is bearish corn

 

Soybeans=(2011-12) 175 million bushels, (2012-13) 140 million bushels. Report is bullish for soybeans.

 

Wheat=(2011-12)  728 million bushels, (2012-13)  694 million bushels. Report is bullish for wheat.

 

All Wheat Production:

2.234 billion bushels vs. the trade's average estimate of 2.222 billion and the USDA's May estimate of 2.245 billion.

 

REPORT REACTION:

One analyst says, "Of course there were changes in corn. But, they want to be conservative until the June 29 acreage report unveils the truth on acres planted. There's too much talk on corn acres going to beans after the $1.70 bean rally over corn, going into seeding. Beans were easy, as all the big export numbers fell on old crop delivery dates. Now, get ready for the widow maker on June 29. It could be feared to be a "game changer" for corn and beans. Certainly, that report will be one of the most feared reports going into it..:"

 

Alan Brugler, Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says the wheat numbers are tighter for US and world, but not earth shattering.
"USDA took the conservative approach on corn, waiting for June 29 Acreage and Grain Stocks before doing anything rash. Evidently not concerned about crop weather at the present time, as they could have cut corn yield and chose not to.  Soy number friendly, new crop ending stocks basically at pipeline level. USDA likely has more acres to work with, but can't show them until June 29 Acreage report confirms them.


One analyst says, "Bearish corn bullish old beans and friendly new beans. Also friendly wheat.
Interesting how they are already adjusting new crop usage already to keep carryout above 100 million bushels. 14 months in advance. Just shows how much demand rationing beans have to do."

Yet another grain analyst says, "The global wheat markets look balanced as expected. Today’s report for corn maintains optimism for both production and a rebuild of global stock levels, including a slight increase in corn use for ethanol production, largely as the trade expected. Weather and yield potential moving forward will dictate future movements in the corn markets. Soybeans are the story in this report, with tightening inventories expected for the both the old and new crop years. Corn has taken acres away from soybeans on a global level, and less than expected South American production is clearly stressing the soybean balance sheet. Chinese purchases of soybeans for both the old and new crop years will continue to bear watching. Soybeans clearly need to take some acres away from corn next year to alleviate the increasing stress on the global soybean balance of supply." 

 

Mike

-------At 6:50am:

USDA Monday dropped the U.S. corn good/excellent rating by 6% vs. a week ago, soybeans fell 5%. In Iowa, those ratings dropped 8% and 9% respectively.

--S. Korea buyer purchased 23,800 mt of U.S. wheat Tuesday.

--India could double its wheat exports this year, one Dow Jones Newswire states.

--Russia's wheat output estimates continue to drop.

 

Well, what do we do today with the USDA numbers? Where do they go? Your turn.

 

Mike

--------

At 6:25am:

Early calls: Subject to this morning's USDA June Production, Supply/Demand Reports at 7:30am CT.

Overnight, July corn is up a penny, Dec. corn is down 2 cents. July soybeans are up 6 cents and Nov. beans are up 3 cents. July wheat is trading 6 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.28 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen starting higher.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks are lower, Europe's stocks are higher.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

For this morning, the thought is the market will trade the Report shortly and then the focus goes back to the weather. Right now, the U.S. and European weather models are in disagreement on rain chances for the next 6-10 days.

 

Mike

Advisor
jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,124
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Mornin Mike

Crops look pretty good around here. We started 2nd cutting hay yesterday. it is short but it is in good quality.  Here is something that may weight on the mkt. today.

 

April Ethanol, Distiller Grains Exports Down from March

Posted on: June 08, 2012 in DDGS, Ethanol, Exports

U.S. ethanol exports (denatured and undenatured, non-beverage) totaled 74.4 million gallons (mg) in April, down 11% from March but in line with January and February shipments, according to government data released this morning. Year-to-date exports stood at 308.9 mg through April, implying annualized demand of more than 900 mg.

At 54.8 mg, denatured ethanol for fuel use accounted for the majority of April exports. Undenatured ethanol for fuel use totaled 13.3 mg, while denatured ethanol for non-fuel use was reported at 6.0 mg. Exports of undenatured ethanol for non-fuel tallied 342,000 gallons.

Canada was the top destination in April, receiving 17.7 mg. The OPEC nation of United Arab Emirates (UAE) followed closely with 17.0 mg of imports, while its Arabian Peninsula neighbor Oman brought in 15.1 mg. Brazil imported just 5.8 mg in April, after importing 65.9 mg a year ago in April 2011 (the result of Brazil lowering its blending requirement from 25% to 20% ethanol). Meanwhile, the “ethanol shuffle” continued, and the U.S. imported 9.5 mg of sugarcane ethanol from Brazil. The United Kingdom was the fifth-leading importer in April, taking in 5.3 mg.

Exports of distillers grains, the livestock/poultry feed co-product of ethanol production, dipped slightly in April to 608,944 metric tons (mt). While down 5% from March, April exports were 4% above year-ago levels. Year-to-date DG exports totaled 2.47 million mt, 5% behind last year’s pace. China was the top importer, bringing in 267,884 mt, followed by Mexico (111,318 mt), Canada (46,352 mt), Japan (27,109 mt), and Vietnam (17,989 mt). Shipments to China were at their highest since August 2010.

 

Just thought the above was very interesting.


Advisor
Pupdaddy
Posts: 618
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

...I'll take whichever model predicts a rainfall event in Ohio the soonest. .10" of rain yesterday...I'm predicting the percentage of "good to excellent" corn in Ohio is going to be dropping like flies shortly......

 

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

Good Morning.  I think all of us that did get rain we need to be thankful that we did.  We got a stray thunderstorm over our farms and we got a little over an inch.  My Uncle south west of me 40 miles got nothing.   Some corn just south of my a couple of miles was rolling yesterday afternoon.   To all of those that didn't get rain, lets hope you get some soon.   I have cow/calf operation and farm few hundred acres and I know I don't like drought, but fighting the mud and not getting the hay up becaues of too much rain is bad too.  I like it just right!!   

 

I am really impressed with what India has done with their crop production over there.  wasn't it like 50 years ago they had famine and now they are exporting wheat AND corn. 

 

My guess on the numbers is:   I have no clue.  I don't think they can raise any stocks right now can they?   Lets look at the soybean number IF that drops, well the $16 high hold them?   Whats the weather like in South America?  Still dry down there.  

I think I remember in the US we haveNEVER had 3 years in a row where the average corn yield was below trend line, Isn' that what some guys where saying earlier this year.  Well I think we are starting to drift that way now.   Lets play this scernerio, We have a less then par corn and soy crop in the US this year.   Then El nino stays away and South America has another tough year down there.  Even if China demand drops some where does that leave us on soybean stocks?  

 

What about our double crop acres of Soybeans, Is there any guys going to do that this year yet?   

 

Just some thoughts

 

 

Veteran Contributor
docharing
Posts: 139
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

Pupdaddy,

We beat you by double here in central Ohio. We got a whopping .20" of rain. We are now good to go for another 2-3 days of heat, then back to crop stress.

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,603
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

So Mike,   They lowered the wheat carryout number for 11/12 but that was with an increase in food and exports.  They said nothing about wheat for feed being larger.   Does this mean that the millions of bushels of wheat that was supposed to be fed was or is not?  seems to me that they would have needed to increase the feed usage for corn or wheat......those animals didn't all go to the market before the last quarter.  

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Advisor
425Cat
Posts: 1,689
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

Still would like to know where the 851 mil bu of corn  is hiding. Basis is getting hot all over the country. .36 over here.

 

As far as the 1.88 ending stocks for next year. Doubt that happens

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,108
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

Must be here in SW iowa ... the local Gavalon head Fred says there is still 25% of last years crop in farmers bins here in Podunk country. Might explain the "ONLY" +30 basis here?

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Community Manager
Jeff_a_Caldwell
Posts: 1,002
Registered: ‎04-29-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 12 (Report Day)

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