06-12-2012 01:19 PM
Above: pivots are running hard in the fields that have them-this is a neighbor's field of soybeans.
My early-planted soybeans, planted April 27th.
Between May & June, we're about 6 and 1/2 inches behind in avg. rainfall. Our corn, planted April 18th, is really starting to show drought stress.
Our later-planted beans...not bad compared to some other late beans in this area.
A neighbor's hay field. News that there may not be a 2nd cutting for hay is sending hay prices through the roof locally.
06-12-2012 01:47 PM
I agree, there is worse out there. I saw worse Sunday about 25 miles south of where Jeff is today. But, this crop is nearing its ability to hang in there on no rain. So, yes, we're not saying this is the worst crop in the Midwest. It's just Iowa corn that is really really thirsty.
06-12-2012 01:50 PM
I'm not telling it what to do. As you say, that would be market suicide. But, with Iowa and Illinois crop ratings declining and rain chances dwindling, the market will one day digest this reality. July is corn month. We are a ways away, I get that. But, if you believe the 6-10 day weather outlook, that puts us closer to July.
06-12-2012 02:25 PM
I think drought is sneaking up on me and many others. It's too early for this dry and hot. For those people who have received beneficial rains, good for you and I hope this weather straightens out soon for the rest of us.
06-12-2012 02:30 PM
After our God send of a rain a night ago I made the rainy day parts run... Ziegler at Altoona then on to Elkhart, Ia and then to Polk City.
Saw very few PERFECT fields of corn and less of beans yes most showed moisture stress or emergence issues but the crop is very far from toast. Most I saw is good for another 7 to 10 days of this weather before it is time to learn the Don Merdith "turn out the lights" song.
Stories of the Iowa crop being just a shadow of its potential is premature. The last few years of flooding and too wet issues took more toll on the crop to this point in time,than the drynes to this point this year.
10 days from now if no rain and I will start to agree with you.
for those of you that think it has to be sold before you plant it ... any second thoughts?
06-12-2012 03:19 PM
Bsand, I am about midway between you and Pupdaddy. I got .3" in the morning. My best corn has been rolling since Sunday but it's on spring plowed ground. The rest is no till and holding it's own. Pupdaddy, I went to Bucyrus last week and noticed how most beans are drilled in along Rt. 19 and not looking that great. Maybe the worst I have seen in recent memory. Last year we just finishing up now and then it stayed dry until July 18. Let's not hope for a repeat performance.
06-12-2012 03:28 PM
One qualification to the above. India MAY barter some wheat for oil with Iran. And no doubt some will be trucked over the border to Bangladesh. But, as of now it looks like generals sales will be almost nonexistent.
06-12-2012 04:07 PM
NW, I have noticed the drilled beans are just not panning out so well for some this year. Nearly all beans planted in 30 inch rows came up. I don't know if its a depth issue or crusting. My late planted beans were planted May 6th, just before our last big 1 inch rain. Soybeans planted after May 15th wont make much in many of the fields around here since there just isn't enough moisture to germinate the seed. We are dangerously close to losing this crop here. I would give it 2 weeks without some rain before it gets zeroed out. Its just been so hot and dry coupled with the unusually strong winds this year.