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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,250
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk June 12

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The July futures corn contract settled 8 cents lower at $6.51. New-crop Dec. futures finished 13 cents lower at $5.37. The July soybean futures contract ended 1 cent higher at $15.40, new-crop Nov. soybeans settled 12 cents lower at $13.14. July wheat futures closed 13 cents lower at $6.83 per bushel. The July soymeal futures settled $2.00 per short ton lower at $461.40. The July soyoil futures close $0.07 higher at $48.11.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.46 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 94 points lower.

 

Mike

------

At 12-Noon:

July soybeans have jumped up 12¢ to trade at $15.53, but has hit as high as $15.59. Why? Old-crop stocks, in the report, were not changed. And the new-crop soybean stocks estimate was equal to the USDA's May estimate and lower than the analysts average guess. So, all-in-all that combination is bullish. And up she goes!!!!!

 

Mike

--------

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the the July futures corn contract is 6 cents lower at $6.54. New-crop Dec. futures are trading 11 cents lower at $5.40. The July soybean futures contract is trading 5 cents higher at $15.45, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 15 cents lower at $13.12. July wheat futures are trading 13 cents lower at $6.84 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $3.10 per short ton higher at $466.50. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.05 higher at $48.09.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.61 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 68 points lower.

 

Mike

--------

USDA Report is bearish for farm markets. Soybean prices fall 2%, at thre release of the numbers.

 

Says:

 

U.S. Corn Acres= 97.3 million, unchanged from May. Yield was lowered to 156.50 bu./acre   

 

U.S. Soybean Acres=Left unchanged from its previous forecast of 77.1 million acres. The avg. yield left unchanged at 44.5 bu./acre.

 

U.S. Carryout
The USDA sees U.S. corn stocks, as of August 31, 2014, the end of the marketing year that will begin with this fall's harvest--will total 1.949 billion  bushels, vs. the USDA's forecast last month of 2.004 billion bushels.
For the 2012-13 marketing year, the USDA estimates U.S. corn stocks at 769 million bushels vs. its May estimate of 759 million bushels and the average analysts estimate of 748 million.
For soybeans, USDA sees domestic stocks at the end of the 2013-14 marketing year to total 265 million bushels vs. its May estimate of 265 million and the average analysts estimate of 273 million bushels. For 2012-13, the USDA estimates U.S. stocks at 125 million bushels, vs. the average analysts estimate of 125 million and the USDA's May estimate of 125 million bushels.
In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2013-14 wheat stocks at 659 million bushels vs. its May forecast of 670 million bushels and the average analysts estimate of 634 million. For 2012-13 marketing year, the USDA sees domestic stocks at 746 million bushels vs. the its May estimate of 731 million and the average analysts estimate of 734 million bushels.


TRADE REACTION:

One analyst says, "Nothing sticks out as there was no measurable changes in the numbers. The big funds were looking at corn planted acres and ending stocks. They just tweaked the yield , production and ending stocks. The funds believe all is much lower . they left all bean numbers unchanged . the usda is taking planting numbers thru june 16 and will make more measurable changes on the june 28 final planted acres report and quarterly stocks report. The trade comes in Thursday and says what report, hows the weather  as weather and its impact on planting and growing is what really changes the situation."

 

---Peter Meyer, PIRA Energy Group senior director of Agricultural Commodities, says the big surprise of the report is the fact the government didn't lower U.S. corn acres.

"I would have thought they (USDA) would have cut a million or 1.5 million corn acres, due to the poor planting season. I mean, where I stand at the moment, I only have figured 93.6 million planted, 86.1 million harvested acres, an expected yield of 151 bushels per acre. So, I'm at a 13.0 billion bushel corn crop. By making few changes, the government is trying to hold this crop at 14.0 billion bushels," Meyer says.

 

--Steve Kahler, chief operating officer at Teucrium Trading, LLC, says today's WASDE report made minimal changes in wheat, corn and soybeans.  "Most in the trade expected a 1-2 million planted acreage reduction for corn but the USDA left previous projections unchanged at 97.3 million acres.  
The trade will focus on future acreage estimates by the USDA due to delayed spring planting, Kahler says.  
"A 1.5 bushel per acre reduction in corn yield was reflected in slightly lower ending stocks with current projections large year on year supply growth.  Old crop corn and soybean supply remain relatively tight and the trade will remain focused on summer weather and the pace at which the corn and soybean crops mature, thus impacting the timing of the first new crop supply.  World wheat production realized slight reductions in the Black Sea region but still leaves the world with a large enough wheat crop to satisfy demand," he says.

 

--Ken Smithmier, The Hightower Report analyst, says that all in all, not a major market mover. Dig through numbers today and move back to weather maps tomorrow.
 
The data should send bearish ripples through the market in the short term on the USDA’s reluctance to adjust corn acreage down given the planting delays. Minor adjustments in demand helped to cushion the blow to the downward revision in yield. The open gap on the December corn chart has been filled and we’d expect the low of 512 to hold as the market focuses on the uncertain weather outlook and looks to the June 28th stocks report for direction," he says.

 

--One analyst says, "I think the wheat production is a little higher than expected and that is the negative.  I also am disappointed in cuts in feed use for wheat and corn.  The beans  old crop is as expected as there is little usda can do about cutting ending stocks more.  USDA punted on new crop until next report.  Corn I am kind of figuring out, but even with less yield at the end of the day USDA expects plenty of corn around.  I think the view that even with problems we will have enough here is what is pushing us down rather than any actual comparison in the numbers."

 

 

 

Mike

--------

At 10:30am:

 

From the Renewable Fuels Association, ethanol production averaged 884,000 barrels per day (b/d) — or 37.13 million gallons daily. That is down 1,000 b/d from the week before. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 877,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 13.44 billion gallons, according to the Energy Information Agency.

Stocks of ethanol stood at 16.0 million barrels. That is a 2.6% decrease from last week.

 

 

Mike

------

At 9:25am:

All markets are falling.

 

Mike

-------

At the open:

At the open, the the July futures corn contract is 3 cents higher at $6.56. New-crop Dec. futures are trading 5 cents lower at $5.45. The July soybean futures contract is trading unchanged at $15.39, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 6 cents lower at $13.20. July wheat futures are trading 5 cents lower at $6.91 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $0.30 per short ton lower at $46200. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.11 higher at $48.15.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points lower.

 

 

Mike

-----------

At 7:25am:

 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 2-4 cents lower (old-crop), soybeans 5-7 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 3-5 cents lower. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 1-2 cents lower and soybeans are seen 1-2 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mixed.
Crude Oil=$0.05 per barrel lower
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen higher, as the bond world seems to calm.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower and Europe's stocks are higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,633
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk June 12

[ Edited ]

Had a good laugh a few minutes ago......I read a market analyst's column this morning......He stated that the most critical weather time period is yet to come.......Tell that to those who don't have their crops planted.... I've been in that boat.....literally, and it's not a very good feeling.

And just what were the last 6-8 weeks?

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Contributor
Mike central IA
Posts: 121
Registered: ‎07-05-2011
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Re: Floor Talk June 12

All the weather is critical throughout the growing season. They just don't get it. Only one chance to get it right, and alot of chances to get it wrong!

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,134
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk June 12

Amen -- Brother Mike -- Amen

Advisor
425Cat
Posts: 1,689
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 12

Make sure you read Goldman's article on the front page what a joke!!

Senior Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 9,125
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Floor Talk June 12

There`s alot of "runway" behind this crop and there`s not the airspeed or altitude to do a "go around", we`ll get what we get.   I could not know less about marketing, but it looks like the only buyers are endusers and if they have to pay $8 they balk.  Now the hedge funds are chasing the leggy sexy equities, buying corn @ $6 hoping it`ll go to $8 when they have to drive to work with their windshield wippers every morning isn`t quite time to jump in yet.  Maybe after a barbecue on the 4th talking to a farming cousin, they`ll get excited.  But if it`s just endusers in the market, they aren`t going to willingly bid themselves in the red, this early.  Any way just my 2¢

"Courage is fear that has said it`s prayers"
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,250
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk June 12

425Cat,

 

Are you referring to this Goldman story:   Significant price drops coming

 

 

Mike

 

Senior Contributor
hanktbd
Posts: 246
Registered: ‎01-08-2013
0

Re: Floor Talk June 12

BA,

 

I agree with your analysis, but,,,, if I were an end user and had a chance to lock up some new corn needs for under $ 6.50 I would be gitnr done.

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,134
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk June 12

[ Edited ]

I have  question here -- Hank --BA or marketeye -- the end user can lock in a price - but that price is oon the broad right ?  But they have no controll over the basis -- is that right ??? If so they can lock in as hank said 6.50 but may have to add a plus .50 or .75 to the loked in price ? If so thats not a real good deal .

 

Thanks

Senior Contributor
hanktbd
Posts: 246
Registered: ‎01-08-2013
0

Re: Floor Talk June 12

ECIN,

 

That may be true for us little guys, but pretty sure the big boys contract directly for physical corn from co-ops and elevators. Years ago I contracted a few thousand bushels of physical grain for pick up at my local co-op and amazingly enough corn price went from 2 bucks to 3 bucks a bushel while I was waiting to take delivery. Not sure if that can be done any more.