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06-12-2013 10:09 AM
Shakes out a dumb question----------- I'll be the lucky one presenting it.
In our area(400 mile radius) it is nearly impossible to deliver on a position. The delivery points are controled by the large grain merchants who make it near impossible to deliver. Is it the same for the end user or can they readily take delivery on a long position??
06-12-2013 10:58 AM
The answer to that question is likely above my pay grade, but I also would like to now the answer. These last several comments all point back to the problem with the CBOT price having decoupled fom the price of physical grain, and the difficulty of truly hedging our production or usage using the CBOT futures price.
06-12-2013 11:18 AM
I surprised the average trade guess was 748 million. I thought it would have been higher. One thing to look at is the increase is getting less in stocks,,,,, No wonder those investment banks went broke in 2008,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
06-12-2013 12:13 PM
Maybe this report isn't as bearish for new crop corn as what the trade may think. The USDA left acres THE SAME. how often do they leave the number the same from report to report?
I think the USDA is trending on thin ice so they want to keep this corn crop and price down as long as possible.
I seriely doubt that we planted 97 million acres of corn. At least a 1/3 of that was planted after mid may.
I've planted corn in June it makes corn but it never is as good as the other corn.
06-12-2013 12:43 PM
Mike, Im just not seeing 97 million acres of corn in the ground. We have had good planting windows here in my region of the cornbelt and soybean planting is just now complete. I have not noticed any corn on corn acres here. With all of the planting issues in the central cornbelt, Im seeing this report for what it is.... PHONY
Thanks again for all that you do Mike, phony USDA report or not you help my marketing.
06-12-2013 01:33 PM - edited 06-12-2013 01:38 PM
Blacksandfarmer, I don't think USDA was ready to tackle the planted acreage issue for this report. Kicked the can down the road for a bit, because they probably don't even know yet. (That's a kind way of saying it, trust me!)
06-12-2013 02:22 PM
Thanks for the nice comment. If I could change the USDA numbers for you, you know that I would. A lot of headscratching going on. But, maybe the gov't will make it all right in the June 28 Report?