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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk June 14

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 9 cents higher at $6.01 1/2, while the Dec. contract ended 6 1/2 cents higher at $5.17. The July soybean contract settled 21 1/4 cents lower $13.87, while the Nov. 2012 contract settled 11 3/4 cents lower at $13.08. The July wheat futures finished 7 cents higher at $6.23. July soyoil futures closed $1.06 lower at $48.04. The July soymeal futures finished $5.50 lower at $416.50. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.89 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 92 points higher.

 

Mike

-------

At 1pm:

One analyst says, "The market is drifting lower after opening higher on positive export sales expect for corn.  Corn is all about tight cash markets and nothing more.  I think a lot of money is coming off the table before the Greek elections, but maybe not much more.  Weather is mostly good for now hurtuing new crop in both corn and beans.  Kind of a slow trade I think, people do not want much these days. Mostly specs for me, my hedge side is quiet."

 

Mike

-------

At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 13 3/4 cents higher at $6.06, while the Dec. contract trades 7 1/4 cents higher at $5.17 1/4. The July soybean contract is trading 6 1/2 cents lower $14.01 3/4, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 3 1/4 cents lower at $13.16 1/2. The July wheat futures are trading 10 1/4 cents higher at $6.26 1/4. July soyoil futures trade $0.79 lower at $48.31. The July soymeal futures are trading $0.90 higher at $422.90. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.74 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 104 points higher.

 

Mike

--------

At the open:

The July corn futures trade 14 3/4 cents higher at $6.06, while the Dec. contract trades 7 cents higher at $5.17 1/4. The July soybean contract is trading 3 1/4 cents higher $14.12, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 1 1/2 cents higher at $13.21. The July wheat futures are trading 10 cents higher at $6.26. July soyoil futures trade $0.30 lower at $48.80. The July soymeal futures opened $2.20 higher at $424.00. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.20 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 73 points higher.

 

Mike

------------

At 8am:

--USDA announces Thursday that China bought 110,000 mt of U.S. SRW wheat for 2012-13 delivery.

 

Mike

----------

At 7:45am:

Look at that corn export figure below, geemenee! I had to do a double-take on that small number. Corn exports have fallen off of a cliff. Can you believe it?

 

Mike

-----------

At 7:30am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report is bearish for the corn market, friendly for soybeans.

 

Corn=169,800 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 350,000-750,000 metric tons.

Soybeans=1.05 million metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 450,000-750,000 mmt.

Wheat=Unknown vs. the trade's expectations of 150,000-350,000 mt.

Soymeal=141,300 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 75,000-175,000 mt.

Soyoil=7,300 mt.

 

Mike

-----------

At 7:10am:

--A South Korea buyer is purchasing 55,000 mt of optional-origin corn from either South America or the U.S. Thursday.

--Japan, South Korea and Taiwan bought 220,000 mt of U.S. wheat Thursday.

--USDA Weekly Export Sales will be released at 7:30am CT.

---U.S. ethanol production, last week, averaged 920,000 barrels per day (b/d) – or 38.64 million gallons daily.  That is up 16,000 b/d from the week before, according to the Energy Information Agency.  The 4-week average for ethanol production stood at 911,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 13.97 billion gallons.

Stocks of ethanol, which fell to their lowest point since the week ending May 11, stood at 20.7 million barrels.

 

Mike

----------

At 6:30am:

Early calls: Corn 7-8 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents lower, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.15 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen starting little changed, ahead of U.S. economic data and the Greece weekend vote.

World Markets=Lower.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk June 14

[ Edited ]

Other than the northern Corn Belt getting more of it, not much rain out there this morning. Freese-Notis Weather Inc. radar looking mostly blank at 7am:

 

InterRAD.gif

Veteran Contributor
67guy
Posts: 74
Registered: ‎05-31-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 14

Mike, let us know later what the traders are saying about weather. Are the forecasts moving away from a pattern change to wetter next week?
Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 14

Our we exporting some ethanol?   Or are we burning it through our own cars. 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 14

Some of both. But the industry has said that the export market picks up the slack when domestic use drops. Gasoline demand for the week averaged 383.5 million gallons daily, the highest level since last August, the EIA stated in this week's report. So, that uses up more ethanol.

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,604
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk June 14

[ Edited ]

Looks like the soybean carryout number gets a little tighter. It also appears that maybe farmers should've planted a few more soybeans this year.

It also looks like the timing is about right for China to purchase some more corn.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk June 14

They way the corn exports looked everyone in the world most have switched to wheat, but yet I didn't think the stocks should that much drop on the report the other day.  Really doesn't make any sense,  China has drought in their corn region, South America had issues, think everyone bought enough corn early to get through to see if we planted 96 million acres?   thats kind of a gamble if they did.    And if they did there should be some big exports sales coming yet done the road.  

Frequent Contributor
rusureofit
Posts: 64
Registered: ‎05-15-2011

Re: Floor Talk June 14

If there is very little old crop corn left to sell how can low export numbers be bearish?  Shouldn't it just confirm that there is very little old crop left?  How can you export what you don't have?  If there is much old crop corn left it is in being held in tight hands as an insurance policy against drought and the possibility of a not so huge corn crop.  If the market really wants the corn that is left now it needs to up the anti to get at it.....$7.00+ cash prices would probably empty the last few bins.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk June 14

[ Edited ]

67guy,

 

The overnight weather models have reduced rain chances in the 8-10 day outlook. Corn is jumping on this news. You knew it had to happen at some point. This market has to trade this weather situation sometime. I mean come on. I'm hearing folks in one of the best corn-yielding counties in the U.S. have bone-dry yards that are very brown and say they haven't seen a drop of rain for a long time. We're not talking about fringe states that are crop-stressed. The heart of Illinois and the eastern half of Iowa, where a large majority of the Corn Belt's production originates, is short and in some cases very short of moisture.

 

Along those lines, I'm being told by analysts that farmers shouldn't sell anything below $5.10. They are saying, point-blank "Store it, as things are going to get real interesting." And on soybeans, these guys think that market is going to get really really interesting, going forward. Put it simply: "So, who's going to provide the world with soybeans until South America has another crop?"

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk June 14

Well thats probably true with the shortage of corn, But whats the world feeding is what I'm getting at.   All the swine and poultry and cattle have to be eating something.   $7 corn would buy what I got left to sell.