Marketing

[marketeye]

roarintiger1,

You are right. It is time for China to buy corn. They like $6.00 and below corn. So, it will be interesting to see if they step in at these levels. Or, will South America start to take marketshare from the U.S. Heck, Ukraine is even ramping up corn exports. There is starting to be a lot more competition on the world corn market.

Mike

[highyields]

Just some numbers I placed on the soymarket, back in 08 didn't corn get to $8 mark, so take that times the 2.5 price difference between corn and beans you get  $20. 

[Mike M2692830]

Mike, you posted below about the trade starting to trade the weather..How can one gov agency(USDA) still tout trendline yields when another gov agency(NOAA) advertises this year to date as the warmest and driest on record. Those two statements can't reside in the same sentence...MikeM

[SouthWestOhio]

mike, You say China likes $6 corn but don't forget they have to pay the basis too.

[marketeye]

Mike M2692830,

It's similar to when the USDA and WASDE numbers don't match. The reason I would give is that humans are involved. You're always going to get something a little different when people determine the numbers. I'm not saying that is a bad thing. I'm just saying you have to factor in the human element. FWIW.

Mike

[fringeacres]

Got beat to the point, but if basis is up then export price is flat, and export # is low but basis rises? There is more corn, not as much as usual. If you put it in the bin at 6.80, hard to pull it out at 6.25

[marketeye]

SouthWestOhio,

That may be why they just bought wheat today? Also, maybe they are looking at cheaper corn around the world?

Mike

[jweiser1925]

Mike,

Good Poet site with corn bids.

http://poet.com/plants

---

marketeye wrote:

At 8am:

--USDA announces Thursday that China bought 110,000 mt of U.S. SRW wheat for 2012-13 delivery.

Mike

----------

At 7:45am:

Look at that corn export figure below, geemenee! I had to do a double-take on that small number. Corn exports have fallen off of a cliff. Can you believe it?

Mike

-----------

At 7:30am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report is bearish for the corn market, friendly for soybeans.

Corn=169,800 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 350,000-750,000 metric tons.

Soybeans=1.05 million metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 450,000-750,000 mmt.

Wheat=Unknown vs. the trade's expectations of 150,000-350,000 mt.

Soymeal=141,300 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 75,000-175,000 mt.

Soyoil=7,300 mt.

Mike

-----------

At 7:10am:

--A South Korea buyer is purchasing 55,000 mt of optional-origin corn from either South America or the U.S. Thursday.

--Japan, South Korea and Taiwan bought 220,000 mt of U.S. wheat Thursday.

--USDA Weekly Export Sales will be released at 7:30am CT.

---U.S. ethanol production, last week, averaged 920,000 barrels per day (b/d) – or 38.64 million gallons daily.  That is up 16,000 b/d from the week before, according to the Energy Information Agency.  The 4-week average for ethanol production stood at 911,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 13.97 billion gallons.

Stocks of ethanol, which fell to their lowest point since the week ending May 11, stood at 20.7 million barrels.

Mike

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At 6:30am:

Early calls: Corn 7-8 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents lower, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.15 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen starting little changed, ahead of U.S. economic data and the Greece weekend vote.

World Markets=Lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

---

Jim W

[Hobbyfarmer]

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