Marketing

[marketeye]

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 22 cents lower at $5.79 1/2, while the Dec. contract finished  9 1/4 cents lower at $5.06 3/4. The July soybean contract closed 11 cents lower $13.75, while the Nov. 2012 contract closed 7 1/4 cents higher at $13.16. The July wheat futures ended 14 cents lower at $6.09 1/2. July soyoil futures settled $0.42 higher at $48.42. The July soymeal futures settled $6.20 lower at $410.30. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.23 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 84 points higher.

Mike

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At 12:45pm:

July corn is trading 18 cents lower, Dec. futures are down 6 cents. One analyst says, "Corn is getting hurt today, due to rumors that a U.S. "trade house" is going to import Brazilian corn into the U.S. Obviously, if done in the old crop slot, it removes the tightness picture.  New crop corn is a little weaker due to improved rains in the WCB."

Mike

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At 10:45am:

Informa, the private analyst firm, updated its U.S. Acreage estimates Friday:

Corn=96.75 million

Soybeans=75.95 million

Spring Wheat=13.476 million

Durum Wheat=2.425 million

Cotton=12.17 million

What do you think about that corn acreage number? Does that look too high?

Mike

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At 10:30am:

The July corn futures trade 16 1/2 cents lower at $5.85, while the Dec. contract trades 3/4 of a cent lower at $5.15 1/4. The July soybean contract is trading 1/2 of a cent lower $13.85 1/2, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 4 3/4 cents higher at $13.13. The July wheat futures are trading 4 1/4 cents lower at $6.19 1/4. July soyoil futures trade $0.23 higher at $48.23. The July soymeal futures are trading $1.40 lower at $415.10. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.28 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 66 points higher.

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures trade 1 cents higher at $6.02 1/2, while the Dec. contract trades 4 cents higher at $5.19 1/4. The July soybean contract is trading 5 cents higher $13.91, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 8 cents higher at $13.17. The July wheat futures are trading 2 cents higher at $6.25 1/4. July soyoil futures trade $0.10 higher at $48.10. The July soymeal futures opened $2.10 higher at $418.50. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.13 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 48 points higher.

Mike

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At 8am:

--USDA announces that an 'unknown' buys 120,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2011-12 delivery Friday.

--USDA announces that China buys 262,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13 delivery Friday.

--USDA announces Friday that China canceled a purchase of 147,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2011-12.

Mike

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At 7:15am:

--Traders say that technically a close for July corn over $6.10 is friendly for prices going forward. For soybeans, if July soybeans hit $13.67 a further fall is expected, according to the chartists.

--Japan seeks 128,000mt of wheat and barley Friday.

--Yesterday's purchase of U.S. SRW was the biggest buy of that quality of wheat for China in 8 1/2 years. A drought has cut China's wheat output.

Mike

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At 6:50am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 8-10 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.51 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen starting higher as traders feel confident central banks around the world stand ready to offer stimulus, if needed, following this weekend's Greece vote.

World Markets=Higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[marketeye]

Hey hey. It looks like some nice rain for "God's country" in eastern Nebraska, western Iowa, parts of northwest Missouri, and northeast Kansas this morning, according to the latest Freese-Notis Weather Inc. radar:

Those Irish farmers around Imogene are probably sipping on coffee at the Emerald Isle, watching that corn grow out of the window. Good for them.

Mike

[Nebrfarmr]

Yup, saw clouds above me most of the day, and was out in the 'rain' we got (I felt all of three raindrops, or maybe two raindrops and a bird, if you know what I mean), then it quit 'raining' and I watched it slowly move SW, where it started to build up, and turn into a 'real' cloud.

Glad someone got the needed rain, but here, there was a drop about every foot or so, hitting the ground, and that was all.

[Farmerjoe79]

So are they traders goin to see that it's goin to get up to the 90's in the eastern corn belt today. It doesn't look like much of a sprinkle for them on Sunday.

[marketeye]

Weather is on their mind. Greece is on their mind. Making money is on their mind. Whatever moves the market up and down, produces volatility, liquidity, and uncertainty is the world they live in.

Separately, the "local" traders come in and often don't even know what stage the crop is in, if its raining or not, if China is buying or not, they simply trade what's in front of them, try to skim some profit for the day and do it all again the next day.

I've  been on the floor many times when a "local" trader, after the closing bell, will come out of the pit and say, "Wow what was moving the market today Mike? There sure was a lot of activity in there."

It really amazes me sometimes how the "locals" work. But, it must work or they wouldn't come back, I guess.

Mike

[sw363535]

It gives me a smile every time I here someone ask "what's the talk on the floor"?  They just know activity of no activity.  It't the folks sending in the orders who have the reasons.

Thanks Mike

[sw363535]

Got News for ya Mike,

A drought cut our wheat output too.

[jweiser1925]

Mike,

Has basis ever been this high?

http://poetbiorefining-fostoria.aghost.net/

Jim W

[sw363535]

Jim W,

Look at that new crop swing-----$ 1.48.  or a 29.5% negative carry.  Looks extreme to me.  compared to averages.

Basis usually projects new crop abundance drop.  This year it's basis drop and market drop.

[marketeye]

jweiser1925,

I'm hearing it's way over a dollar in Texas. I'll tell you what. Let's run a contest today. Let's see who can find the highest basis price around the country. It's kind of fun to see where the highest basis price comes in from. Who wants to start? Go right ahead. Give us the price and location, please.....

Mike