06-17-2013 07:24 AM - edited 06-17-2013 02:07 PM
At the close:
The July futures corn contract settled 13 cents higher at $6.68. New-crop Dec. corn futures finished 5 cents higher at $5.38. The July soybean futures contract closed 4 cents lower at $15.12, new-crop Nov. soybeans ended 12 cents lower at $12.85. July wheat futures finished 1 cent lower at $6.80 per bushel. The July soymeal futures closed $1.60 per short ton lower at $449.10. The July soyoil futures settled $0.36 higher at $48.84.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.02 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 58 points higher.
Pete Meyer, PIRA Energy Group grain analyst, says that he is not surprised that corn is holding up pretty well against beans.
"I believe soybeans are over-priced. Funds are too long soybeans and soy meal, this early in the growing season, in my opinion. July contracts in both corn and soybeans should get interesting with the Index rolls complete. Another contract month with no deliveries given the high basis. I would not want to be short in the front months until after the July expires," Meyer says.
At mid-session, the the July futures corn contract is 10 cents higher at $6.65. New-crop Dec. corn futures are trading 3 cents higher at $5.36. The July soybean futures contract is trading 7 cents lower at $15.09, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 11 cents lower at $12.86. July wheat futures are trading 4 cents higher at $6.84 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $1.20 per short ton lower at $449.50. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.35 higher at $48.83.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.18 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 163points higher.
One analyst says, "The weather is pushing the back-months down for sure. Old crop is supported by tight supplies, and I am wondering if some forecasts for colder weather in Brazil late this week is supporting corn and wheat in general. Otherwise, I can find no reason for new crop to rally or for heat to rally. Not a huge volume session but there is business here today, some spec and some hedge as some farmers are selling a bit of new crop. It seems quiet down in South America with some talking about the Argentine strike that could hurt corn and soybeans exports for a limited time. I think people are making a deal out of it trying to get a rally going. But, with the weather a lot better, I think rallies will be hard to hold in new crop months.
Monday's Export Inspections show promise for this week's sales figures for corn.
Corn=14.4 million bushels inspected vs. 6.4 million bu. last week.
Soybeans= Inspections came in slightly lower than last week.
Wheat= Inspections are slightly lower than a week ago.
At the open:
At the open, the the July futures corn contract is 1 cent higher at $6.55. New-crop Dec. futures are trading 4 cents lower at $5.28. The July soybean futures contract is trading 11 cents lower at $15.05, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 13 cents lower at $12.84. July wheat futures are trading 4 cents lower at $6.77 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $2.40 per short ton higher at $448.30. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.19 higher at $48.67.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.31 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 147 points higher.
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower (old-crop), soybeans 10-12 cents lower (old-crop), and wheat 2-4 cents lower. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 4-6 cents lower and soybeans are seen 12-14 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.83 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen higher, ahead of the Fed Reserve meeting.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher and Europe's stocks are higher.
By the way, hog bids are seen flat to weaker Monday.
More in a minute,
06-17-2013 09:57 AM - edited 06-17-2013 09:58 AM
Yeah, it looks like Sep. futures volume is creeping ever closer to July's.
So, I drove around central Iowa a bit Sunday. I saw a lot of corn around the Boone area that just didn't look very good. Predominantly yellow in color, it just didn't look very healthy, tall, or even responding to yesterday's sunshine. I stopped to get gasoline. A guy next to me told me much of the crop was planted late, and now is sitting in saturated soil.
He was very pessimistic on the prospects, until I asked the big question. "So, how much of the top is off, you know the top of the yield potential?" Oh, he said, it's way to early for that.
So, though he was down on everything that has happened up util this point, he was not willing to commit to any downside going forward. I'm not saying he isn't right. I just thought it was interesting.
06-17-2013 01:44 PM
Mike I saw an article this weekend that talked about farmers not having as much grain forward contracted as usual for this time of year. I was wondering who tracks this number and is it freely available on line?
06-17-2013 02:12 PM
As far as not as much forward-contracted, it may be this idea that farmers have been told for awhile now that fall prices would be low. As a result, farmers may be planning to use more on-farm storage this year.
Who keeps track of forward-prices sales? You might glean some of that from the Committment of Traders Report. In other words, it could give you this sense of how long or short the folks are. But, that might be a stretch.
06-17-2013 03:22 PM
Or someone like Ray could just tell us how much his fall book is compared to normal! Probably a good way for him to get fired, but this is one area where the 4 big commercials have a huge advantage in terms of market knowledge.
06-17-2013 03:42 PM
Well Mike we used 10% of our on farm storage last year for corn. Fall prices have a lot to do with it. Farm storage has not paid well the last few years. If we do not have a price over $6 before harvest we will fill everthing we can until this fairytale unravels in January. Considering input prices this crop is worth well more than $5 bushel.
06-17-2013 03:49 PM
Interesting. What about soybeans? I'm told it hasn't paid to store soybeans, in the past. But, is that changing at all? And why would it change: better basis, tight supplies, more buyers.....?