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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,252
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk June 18

[ Edited ]

At 3:10pm:

USDA rates U.S. corn crop at 63% good/excellent. The soybean crop is rated as 56% good-to-excellent. Surprised?

 

Mike

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At the close:

The July corn futures settled 20 cents higher at $5.99 1/2, while the Dec. contract settled 28 cents higher at $5.34. The July soybean contract ended 8 1/4 cents higher $13.84 3/4, while the Nov. 2012 contract finished 25 1/4 cents higher at $13.39 1/2. The July wheat futures finished 20 3/4 cents higher at $6.30 1/4. July soyoil futures finished $0.32 higher at $48.76. The July soymeal futures finished $2.80 higher at $412.90. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.74 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 10 points lower.

 

Mike

-------

At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 22 1/2 cents higher at $6.02, while the Dec. contract trades 21 3/4 cents higher at $5.27 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 13 3/4 cents higher $13.89 3/4, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 19 1/2 cents higher at $13.33 1/2. The July wheat futures are trading 21 3/4 cents higher at $6.31 1/2. July soyoil futures trade $0.23 higher at $48.67. The July soymeal futures are trading $4.30 higher at $414.40. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.16 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points lower.

 

One floor trader says the hot/dry weather is underpinning the farm markets Monday.
"I think the wind that accompanied weekend rain events, has the market thinking those rains were not as beneficial as they could have been," he says. Plus, we are looking at a 6-10 day forecast of hot and dry. That is even more price-supportive."
Most marketwatchers feel like when Dec. corn futures got down to $5.10 that it was a bargain and started buying it, he says.
Meanwhile, the old-crop July corn futures contract is gaining on the previous leading Dec. contract (daily change price). This supports the idea that there isn't much corn in the hands of farmers, he says.
"July was lagging behind Dec. futures prices by 4-5 cents. And now all of the sudden the two contracts are even. So, that old-crop corn issue is still out there," he says.
Brazil Rumor
To end last week, a rumor that Brazil was exporting corn to the U.S. circled the trade floor. That rumor is believed to be false, he says.
"It doesn't figure. Cost-wise, It pencils out to be worth it. But, because of Brazil's infrastructure, the shipment would take 55 days to get to the U.S. For that reason, the market doesn't believe the rumor," he says.
The corn would have to land in Norfolk, Virginia, due to the rumored potential buyers. Hog producer Smithfield has denied any corn purchases from Brazil. That leaves poultry producer Purdue, but that is seen as unlikely, he says.
"I don't believe it's true." he says..

 

Mike

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At 10:15am:

 

Hot/dry weather outlooks have the farm markets up double-digits Monday. The weather models agree that the next 6-9 days look hot and dry.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures trade 9 cents higher at $5.88 3/4, while the Dec. contract trades 14 cents higher at $5.20 1/4. The July soybean contract is trading 19 cents higher $13.95, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 23 cents higher at $13.37. The July wheat futures are trading 12 cents higher at $6.21. July soyoil futures trade $0.35 higher at $48.80. The July soymeal futures opened $4.70 higher at $415.00. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.54 per barrel lower, the dollar is unchanged and the Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 7:25am:

Technically, the July corn and soybean futures contracts could be looking at 'support' levels of $5.62 and $13.63 this week, according to analysts. With a higher start Monday, it seems unlikely we would reach those levels today. In addition, this afternoon't USDA Crop Progress Report is expected to show another decline in crop ratings. That would give the bulls some extra crumbs to chew on.

 

Now that some folks did get what I'm hearing was a $1 million rain, at least for their bone-dry crop, what does this do to your marketing psyche? If it rains again, and dumps another inch or so, does this tell the market the crop is well suited for July, at least? Have you at least picked up the keys to the lock on that bin? Or, do you see more upside? I pieced together a story with one analyst saying don't sell any corn at $5.10 (basis Dec.) and another urges farmers to consider some options positions. See the full story of Farmers urged to protect prices.

 

Thanks for sharing,

 

Mike

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At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 8-10 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.44 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen starting lower as enthusiam fades over Greece's center-right New Democracy party victory this weekend. Instead, the market is focusing on Italian and Spanish bond yields rising.

World Markets=Higher.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,252
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk June 18

[ Edited ]

O'le McDonald had a farm, ee i ee i o.

And on that farm he had RAIN, ee i ee i o.

With a tenth of an inch here, 1.50-inches there, ee i ee i o.

O'le McDonald had a farm, and on that farm he had RAIN, ee i ee i ooooooooohhhh!!

 

I wrote that over the weekend. If you sing it, make sure you put the big finish on the end. From Nebraska to Illinois, I'm hearing from farmers that received much-needed rain. Thank God for the blessing of moisture.

 

Here's what is out there today, according to the Freese-Notis Weather Inc. radar.

 

InterRAD.gif

 

Mike

 

Advisor
clayton58
Posts: 370
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 18

You guys in the ECB,  How long will the rain you got last?  I know I'm in a different world, but the next couple days have projected water use of .4 to .5 inches/day.  My experience is that when the crop is curling, it takes a lot of water to catch up.  So how optimistic are you?

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,217
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk June 18

be a little carefull as there is a large group that missed it compleatly.

 

Got a call from one half an hr ago that lives 30ish miles SE if Indy and thinks it will be pretty well over by this coming Friday with this wind and heat the next few days if his area doesn't catch a rain very soon.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,341
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 18

How about this tune......zero zero zero......and its 80 and blowing 20........3 weeks mike, 3 weeks.....

This crop is in trouble if the models hold out.....

And I saw some corn yesterday afternoon that got that 1.5 inch rain......it was rolling already.....so think about the guys that got none or only a 1/4......today will be the great equalizer.......

Between evapo and usage, we are getting into 3.5 inch per week territory........
Veteran Contributor
infire
Posts: 83
Registered: ‎07-07-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk June 18

NE of Wabash, In. the road was damp with sprinkles going to church, all gone & done by noon, not even enough to soak up the dust in bottom of rain gauge, radar looked like blacksandfarmer might have got some though.

Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk June 18

While central and northern IL finally caught a little, I really feel for the guys in SE IL and a lot of Indiana. And the rains IL finally caught won't be around long. I can't believe how hot the next 15 days look. If june is any indication of how July will be its gonna be scary.
Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk June 18

% of Avg Precip since May 1: Rockford, IL 34%; Quincy, IL 30%; Decatur 31%; Fort Wayne, IN 17%; Terre Haute 25%; Cape Girardeau 29%. Speaks for itself.
Veteran Contributor
infire
Posts: 83
Registered: ‎07-07-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk June 18

I looked at an area on 1 farm Fri. that is a "wetland area" & it has no open water at all which it did last summer, so judging by it we are dryer now than at the worst of it last summer

Frequent Contributor
rusureofit
Posts: 64
Registered: ‎05-15-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk June 18

I drove accross Indiana last week to visit my sister in Fort Wayne.  It is really dry there and they need rain bad.  Here it is just the oposite in West Central MN, crops look great but last night we got as much as 4.75 inches rain in two hours now we have washouts and standing water in many fields.  I am not asking for sympathy here, I just want people to realize that everyday that the weather is not ideal, either too dry or too wet the yield potential is dropping on this years crop. 

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