06-27-2012 07:15 AM - edited 06-27-2012 02:17 PM
At the close:
The July corn futures settled 6 1/2 cents higher at $6.52 1/2, while the Dec. contract closed 9 3/4 cents higher at $6.33 3/4. The July soybean contract finished 1/2 of a cent lower $14.70, while the Nov. 2012 contract ended 1 1/4 cents lower at $14.12. The July wheat futures settled 3 cents higher at $7.32. July soyoil futures closed $0.54 higher at $51.42. The July soymeal futures finished $2.70 higher at $429.90.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.78 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 80 points higher.
The rally is a result of traders with December corn 'short' positions getting squeezed out of their positions with a hot/dry forecast that is getting hotter and drier. Expected precipitation from Tropical Debby did not move far enough inland as expected. Also, corn managed, prior to rally, had liquidated most of their 'long' positions. So, no selling pressure. In addition, the trade is thinking the U.S. corn yield average is now below 155 bu./acre vs. the USDA's 166 bu./acre.
I'm expecting some short-covering before Friday's USDA Reports. But, I've heard there is fear of a bearish report. Overall, it's all about the weather."
The July corn futures are trading 14 1/4 cents higher at $6.60 1/4, while the Dec. contract trades 22 3/4 cents higher at $6.46 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 25 3/4 cents higher $14.96 1/4, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 21 cents higher at $14.34 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 14 cents higher at $7.43. July soyoil futures trade $0.75 higher at $51.63. The July soymeal futures are trading $5.60 higher at $432.80.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.52 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 98 points higher.
The markets are still up double-digits.
Side note: Chicago's Tom Skilling, a highly followed weatherman, says that in 2012 the third largest U.S. city has already seen 15 days with temps above 90-degrees. The average number of days is 17. Last time I checked the calendar, it's still June.
At the open:
The July corn futures opened 20 cents higher at $6.66, while the Dec. contract trades 25 cents higher at $6.49. The July soybean contract is trading 16 cents higher $14.87, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 14 cents higher at $14.27. The July wheat futures opened 8 cents higher at $7.36. July soyoil futures trade $0.74 higher at $51.80. The July soymeal futures opened $4.10 higher at $428.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.10 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 91 points higher.
UPDATED WEATHER: New weather models show exreme heat hanging over the lower & central Plains will move east. Plus, more rain is seen for the Midwest for June 30-July 4 timeframe.
--Japan seeks 320,000 mt of feed wheat, barley in a July tender, according to the Dow Jones Newswire.
--China's Jan-May DDG imports jumped 41% on-year.
--AgResource stated in its daily newsletter to customers Wednesday; "The CME raised margin requirements for corn/soy and wheat futures following this week's sizeable rally. The higher margin requirements will help member firms make sure they have enough capital in these volatile weather markets. The increase was expected and should not have much of an impact on grain valuations. However, the margin hikes will place more pressure on the shorts ahead of Friday's key USDA Stocks/Seeding report."
Initial margin for old-crop corn contracts will go up:
$2,700 from $2,363 for speculative traders and to $2,000 from
$1,750 for hedgers and members, CME Group says.
Initial margin for new-crop corn contracts will rise to
$2,700 from $1,688 for speculative traders and to $2,000 from
$1,250 for hedgers and members, according to a CME Group statement.
Maintenance margin for both old- and new-crop corn contracts will go up to $2,000 for both speculators and members.
Margin increases for Black sea wheat, milk, lumber, oat and rough rice futures contracts. The rates are effective after the close of business today, the CME Group says.
Early calls: Corn 8-10 cents higher, soybeans 15-16 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.10 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening flat, ahead of consumer reports, the EU Summit and word that China may be implementing measures to stimulate a slowing economy.
More in a minute,
06-27-2012 07:19 AM - edited 06-27-2012 08:27 AM
Is there any rain out there? Not a drop in the Corn Belt, this morning, according to the latest Freese-Notis Weather Inc. radar:
And no, I didn't just cut-and-paste yesterday's image. This is the new image for this morning.
06-27-2012 07:20 AM - last edited on 06-27-2012 08:29 AM by marketeye
Hey, could you give us some more info for July 27? I might want to put some positions on in the next 4 weeks and that would be very helpful...
06-27-2012 07:36 AM - last edited on 06-27-2012 08:28 AM by marketeye
<<< Predicts it will still be summer, there will be no higher chances of thunderstorms than 40%..and the corn crop that is already stunted and losing yield will still be stunted...maybe to the point of being harvested for silage. Close enough????
06-27-2012 08:11 AM - edited 06-27-2012 08:27 AM
Nice catch. Thanks. It never fails. If I try to do my work before a cup of coffee, errors like that happen. Thanks again. I knew I could count on you folks.
06-27-2012 08:14 AM - edited 06-27-2012 08:28 AM
You might be onto something, with that thought. I'm reading in the mainstream media how the corn crop is struggling. People in New York now care how that tall green plant is growing in a field in one of those fly-over states. You know it must be getting critical, when that happens.
06-27-2012 08:31 AM
Fyi: All of the posts in this thread have now been corrected with the current date. In the grand scheme of things, it probably doesn't matter. But, it helps for historical searches. Otherwise, I wouldn't have worried about it at all.