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06-28-2013 08:41 AM - last edited on 06-28-2013 01:25 PM by John_Walter
USDA Says What?
Quarterly Grain Stocks:
How would you feel these blanks in?
Here's a report day preview story Calm Before USDA Storm that suggests farmers should sell into a report rally.
Corn Stocks at 2.764B Bu Vs 3.148B In 2012
Soybean Stocks at 0.435B Bu Vs 0.667B In 2012
Wheat Stocks at 0.718B Bu Vs 0.743B In 2012
Corn Planted at 97.4M Acres Vs 97.3 Jun 1
2013 U.S. Corn Harvest at 89.1M Acres Vs 89.5M Jun 1
2013 U.S. Soybeans Planted at 77.7M Acres Vs 77.1M Jun 1
2013 U.S. Soybean Harvest at 76.9M Acres Vs 76.2M Jun 1
2013 U.S. All Wheat Planted at 56.5M Acres Vs 56.4M Jun 1
All Wheat Harvest at 45.7M Acres Vs 46.7M Jun 1
All Cotton Planted at 10.25M Acres Vs 10.03M Jun 1
Reactions? -- John
One analyst's reaction: "The big surprise from this report is the larger than expected area of newly planted corn acres, which, if true, bodes well for replenishment of the very tight corn balance sheet. Soybean acres were at expectations
Stocks of grains on hand in the US as of June 1, 2013 are across the board slightly tighter than expected, which means end users of grain, especially soybeans, will continue to face strong prices and difficult sourcing at least until late summer harvest of new crop planting begins.
This report seems to indicate that US grains for export into global markets will remain uncompetitive for quite some time. Expect downward revisions in corn acres in the next report." (Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading)
Darrel Good, University of Illinois, wonders what part of the planted acres reported today weren't really in the ground and could be considered intentions. "To what extent, we still don't know," he said.
"I don't think the numbers are quite as bearish as they appear on the surface," Good said.
One indication is that difference between planted acres and USDA's projection of harvested acres is unusually large, he said.
Acres planted to corn are estimated at 97.4, but USDA projects a harvest of 89.1 million acres. That difference of more than 8.2 million acres is unusually large, Good said. Typically it's about 7 million acres. (Full story).
06-28-2013 09:06 AM
I'll get the ball rolling,,,,
Corn I'll say they come out with 96 million acres.. I think actual planted acres is less then that, but since I'm not certified yet, they don't know what I'm doing...
Soybeans no more then 78 million. At the price of diesel, no new crop priced yet, you where better off to take prevented planting then you where to raise a short crop.
Quarterly stocks: They keep them high enough to show pipeline supplies in beans. I really think we have short crop coming in wheat, new crop corn we shall see, Soybeans might be a short crop again. We might hit my $20 mark on beans yet if we come up short this year. Old crop corn is short and I imagine there is some old stock still in the country,, at what price that shakes loose is yet to be determined. I read that there needs to be a price raise in ethanol soon, since stocks are starting to be drawn down as of late.
One thing that is different about soybeans vs.. Corn,,,,China, China as we all know, they want to be self sufficient in corn productions, so they have to come to us or South America for beans, that gives us a market for beans every day of every week, we don't have that luxury in corn. There is also alot more competition in "carb" grains then we have in protein feed grain.
You can supplement corn with distillers grains and or wheat, oats, barley, all can be feed as an energy source if so desired.
We just don' t have that in Soybeans.
And wheat can be grown just about anywhere on the planet.
Corn stocks will be higher then march, since we don't have exports this year,,,,
soybeans less then march.
06-28-2013 09:09 AM
Word from Scott Shellady, in note below, is worth sharing, I think:
"This report has a tendency to move the market pretty violently. It is also the end of the quarter and end of the month so things could get a little exaggerated. Be careful."
Any thoughts on where this thing is going to land us?
06-28-2013 09:22 AM
They're going to release a super bearish set of numbers that are all totally bogus. I'm no rocket scientist, but I travel a wide swath of prime corn and soybean areas....and it isn't pretty. This growing season is totally bizarre and crop development is sufferring from the excessive mositure. There are thousands of unplanted and waterlogged acres out there that are being counted as planted and in good to excellent condition. We have over 1half of our beans in need of replanting, and another1/3 unplanted.
SRW harvest isn't happening, wheat flat on the ground, wet, more rain forcast after 12.5" in last 7 days. Double crop soybean over a wide area on SRW won't happen.
We'll never know the truth about any of this until after the first of the year. I'm probably wrong on my assessment. Besides, who need the USA when we have SA and China?
06-28-2013 09:44 AM - edited 06-28-2013 09:51 AM
Bunge/west Council Bluffs Iowa
+1.70 the Sept for a cash bid (was over $16 cash earlier today)
Local end corn user still +$1.40 over the Sept . ( cash price is just pennies over $7 though)
Bet they aren't there because there is an abundance of local grain availible.
Pretty healthy disconnect from the USDFA and CBOT and reality. JMHO
My crops in NW Ks are approaching a "0" . Corn is blue or gray and some of the little bigger corn out in the area is turning brown. (dryland crops) Wheat is dismal, Lots of it looks decent till you go out and shell a few heads and realize why it is being swathed or is still just standing there.
06-28-2013 09:54 AM
There seems to be a lot of hype for crops whose outcomes will not be determined for awhile. I'll guess the tail wags the dog on this report. Sort of the new norm. The level of stocks for corn til the end of the year, and when new supplies appear where needed, may be the factor most concerning to end users. On the other hand the feed and residual catagory are the hardest to have faith in.
06-28-2013 10:32 AM - edited 06-28-2013 10:34 AM
Having just returned from an 800 mile-trip across the western Corn Belt, I agree that it seems there is tremendous variability in conditions out there, and that the "game" will be on the table for a long time. Particularly startling is to go from central Iowa with its drowned-out spots to central Nebraska with its droughty dryland crops. Pivots were working hard, it seemed. The wheat in south central Nebraska looked like it would struggle to make 30 bushels. -- John
06-28-2013 10:46 AM - edited 06-28-2013 10:52 AM
CBOT wheat dropped to a one-year intraday low ahead of the crop report this morning. Wire services are describing trading as choppy as the players get positioned for the acreage and stocks estimates. Wheat continues to be pressured this by increases in world production, analysts said. Soybeans were trading mixed, quiet before the report. Corn futures were lower in choppy trading. Signals for an overall bearish report? -- John
06-28-2013 11:13 AM
Just watched Nov beans rally get stopped COLD at 1279.75. My stop is sitting at 1280 so that was a bit nerve wracking to watch. It's only a 10-cent risk but when you see that one, lone tick make a stand it's impressive. Beans now back down to 1260 so hopefully the storm has passed.