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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk June 29 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 20 cents higher at $6.72, while the Dec. contract finished 2 cents higher at $6.34 3/4. The July soybean contract settled 46 3/4 cents higher $15.12, while the Nov. 2012 contract closed 25 cents higher at $14.28 1/4. The July wheat futures closed 13 cents higher at $7.39. July soyoil futures ended $1.23 higher at $52.15. The July soymeal futures finished $10.80 higher at $437.40. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $6.87 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 240 points higher.

 

Mike

--------

At mid-day:

the July corn futures are 18 1/4 cents higher at $6.70 1/4, while the Dec. contract trades 2 1/2 cents higher at $6.34 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 34 1/4 cents higher $15.00 1/4, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 22 1/4 cents higher at $14.25 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 9 cents lower at $7.35. July soyoil futures trade $0.74 higher at $51.66. The July soymeal futures are trading $6.00 higher at $432.80. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $4.48 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 212 points higher.

 

Mike

-------

At 10:30am:

Old-crop corn is rallying. One analyst says, "Traders that were betting the report would be not as bearish as pre report estimates suggested bought prior the reports release, with corn and beans up 12 to 15. But, a slightly more bearish report had them sell the reports release, only to find the weather traders waiting to buy. Weather 'longs' sold out yesterday, looking to re-enter on a lower open today."

 

Mike

------

Early Trading:

In early trading, the July corn futures are 19 3/4 cents higher at $6.71 3/4, while the Dec. contract trades 17 cents higher at $6.49 1/4. The July soybean contract is trading 15 cents higher $14.81 3/4, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 14 cents higher at $14.18. The July wheat futures are trading 9 cents lower at $7.35. July soyoil futures trade $0.88 higher at $51.80. The July soymeal futures are trading $2.50 higher at $429.10. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.68 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are seen opening higher.

 

Mike

--------------

At 7:30am:

 

USDA Report Results:

Acreage:

Corn=96.4 million vs. the average trade estimate of 95.962 and the March estimate of 95.864 million.

Soybeans= 76.1 million vs. the average trade estimate of 75.575 million and the March estimate of 73.902.

All Wheat= 56.0 million vs. the avg. trade estimate of 56.851 million and the March est. of 55.908 million.

 

Grain Stocks

Corn=3.148 billion bushels vs. the trade's expectation of 3.182 billion and the USDA's previous est. 6.009 bill.

Soybeans=667 million vs. the avg. trade estimate of 640 million and the March estimate of 1.372 billion.

Wheat=743 million bushels vs. the avg. trade estimate of 726 million and the March 1.201 billion bushels.

 

What do you all think?

 

Trade Reaction:

One analyst says, "Acres were in-line with expectations, a little negative to soybeans. But, our view is some of the intended double crop acres won’t get planted, unless rain develops south of I-80 where wheat was," he says.
Grain Stocks were supportive to corn, neutral wheat/soybeans, he says.
"I didn’t see anything too negative in the report but the Spring Wheat acres were pretty friendly," he says.

 

Another analyst says, "In spite of high planted acreage, the report shows corn inventories continuing to tighten versus last year, which brings the intensity of the Midwestern drought into focus for traders and end users.
A continuation of the dry weather during this important pollination time might confirm the market’s worst fears that global corn stocks will remain tight for another year," he says.
U.S. ethanol production declined last week, but that will only bring temporary relief on global demand for corn, especially if energy prices return to higher levels, he says.
He adds, "This report puts more importance on next month’s projected corn and soybean yield estimates, which will be entirely dependent on weather going forward. Corn may take the headlines, but soybeans are still the main story, projected soybean stocks may reach critically low levels given China’s rate of increasing import levels year to date.
Both corn and soybeans could potentially see further tightening of their balance sheets, depending upon the ultimate severity of the drought, he says.

 

Mike

----------

At 5:45am:

Early calls: Subject to this morning's USDA Stocks & Seeds Reports to be released at 7:30am. Watch for data and trade response right here, following the report.

 

Currently, overnight corn is 12 cents higher, soybeans are up 10 cents and wheat is 9 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$2.09 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher as investors feel confident about an EU summit deal that will prop up troubled eurozone banks.

World Markets=Higher on EU Summit announcement.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk June 29 (Report Day)

Hey, lookee what I found. It's a rain event moving across the heart of the Corn Belt. Here's the latest radar from Freese-Notis Weather Inc.

 

InterRAD.gif

 

Hopefully, it will keep moving straight eastward into the eastern Corn Belt.

 

Mike

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,338
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 29 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

before you go putting the radar up Mike........those little cells have about a section wide swath of decent rain..........rest are less than pavement wetters...........

 

EDIT: dang it, he beat me too it...........

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,124
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk June 29 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dmx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

 

now go over to rainfall on the left side and hit "storm total"

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,150
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk June 29 (Report Day)

Those drops of rain will not be in this report......
Senior Contributor
arnfarm735
Posts: 185
Registered: ‎05-15-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 29 (Report Day)

Ya, Marketeye, we had a whopping .05 here in ECNE at our location. Only will add to the humidity -- great for crops (except for the 97 degrees today); bad for people.

Dads know a lot, but
Grandpas know everything
Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk June 29 (Report Day)

I'm in a good mood this morning, so I'll say it

 

 

            Some rain is better then No rain

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 29 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

highyields,

 

You said it for me. I know everybody would rather have a nice 3.00" soaker. And it's needed, no doubt. And I hope everyone gets one soon. I'm just thankful, whenever I see color on that radar. It gives me hope that maybe the event will get more intense and drop more rain than first-thought or more than it looks like it will. Keep in mind, you can take a lot of little rocks and make a big one. Those blank radar screens are the ones that bother me. Good luck to everybody, on this final trading day of June. Let's go get 'em!!!

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 29 (Report Day)

According to the RADAR, I'm getting a nice, gentle rain. 
Looking out my window, the sidewalk doesn't have a single drop on it.

I think the light green areas may not be getting much, if anything at all.

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,124
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk June 29 (Report Day)

062812951553[00].jpg

 

 

 

It cooled down to 96 yesterday afternoon and I sprayed some beans and found this on the north side of one farm. NO it was not a rural water line leak. the size of the beans are from drowned out to...

 

062812951602[00].jpg

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."