06-30-2014 07:50 AM - edited 06-30-2014 03:26 PM
HOLIDAY HOURS: The CBOT will be closed on Friday, due to the July 4th holiday and not reopen until Monday July 7th at 8:30 AM CDT. Thursday's CBOT market will close early at 12 Noon.
USDA Crop Progress Report:
The weekly crop progress report this afternoon showed the nation’s corn crop is rated at 75% good to excellent, up 1% from last week. The nation's soybean crop was unchanged at 72% good/excellent.
Corn: 75% good to excellent, up 1% from last week and up 8% from last year. Iowa corn rated at 79% good/excellent, Illinois at 80%. Minnesota corn is rated at 65%.
Soybeans: 72% good/excellent, with the best crops in the central Corn Belt.
Wheat: Dropped 1% to 70% good to excellent.
Corn=91.6 million vs. the average trade estimate of 91.787 million.
Soybeans (the shocker)= 84.8 million vs. the trade's estimate of 82.17 million.
Wheat= 56.5 million acres vs. the trade's expectations of 55.7 million.
Corn= 3.85 billion bushels
Soybeans= 405 million bushels.
Wheat= 590 million.
The old-crop sloybean market has dropped 54¢, since the report.
--Pete Meyer, PIRA Energy grain analyst says, "Obviously the big story is soybean acreage which should not have been that big a shock if people were paying attention to Monsanto’s earnings released last week and DuPont’s guidance."
--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says "Well, not much to say. The beans report ws more bearish than expected for both items. Corn and wheat not so bearish, more in line, but probably taking some of the gas from beans. I think corn and beans can hold in through here, beans maybe got more down side coming. The stocks bigger keeps the nearby spread ugly now. wow."
--Bob Linneman, grain analyst, ays, "Big bear surprise in bean acres!!! Record size bean crop. Now the questions becomes yield – watch the Monday crop condition reports… also the corn was neutral, but beans are soooooo bearish that we may see the beans keep the corn down."
--Mike North, Senior Risk Advisor for First Capital Ag, says, "The biggest number without question is the soybean acreage. Prior to the report, the average guess was 82.154 million acres with the highest guess being 84 million acres. The USDA projects that 2014 soybean plantings were 84.8 million acres. Together with a marginally higher June 1 stocks number of 405 million bushels, the soybeans are struggling to do anything but sink. Corn was very near to the averages on both acreage and stocks and would only be considered mildly bearish. Acres fell just 91,000 from the March Planting Intentions report to come in at 91.6 million. Stocks were above the estimate and came out at 3.854 billion bushels. The market will now shift its focus entirely toward weather as we move into the Independence Day holiday."
--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says, "The markets were clearly surprised by the size of the increases vs expectations in both the stocks and acres planted of soybeans.
The increase in corn stocks vs expectations is partially offset by a slight decline in planted corn acres.
Wheat supplies, while slightly lower than expectations, remain adequate.
Other than the unexpectedly optimistic report for soybeans this season, the report is largely reflective of trade expectations, but markets are reacting negatively to official confirmation of more than ample expected supplies for all crops this fall. The markets appear to be pricing near perfect growing conditions for the remainder of the growing season, which means weather will now become the main driver of prices going forward into July’s critical pollination period."
The Sep. corn futures are trading 13 1/2 cents lower at $4.28.
The Dec. corn futures are trading 13 cents lower at $4.34.
The Aug. soybean futures are trading 50 cents lower at $13.27.
Nov. soybean futures are trading 47 cents lower at $11.80.
Dec wheat futures are 8 cents lower at $6.04.
The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $21.60 per short ton higher at $371.40. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.88 lower at $39.51.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.56 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points lower.
At the open:
The Dec. corn futures are trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $4.42.
The Nov. soybean futures are trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $12.27.
Dec wheat futures are 5 1/4 cents lower at $6.07.
The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.20 per short ton higher at $394.20. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.14 lower at $40.25.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.18 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 29 points lower.
Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat 5-7 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil=$0.81 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen slightly lower, as investors lock in the biggest second quarter gains since 2009 and await big reports on U.S. jobs, later this week.
World Markets=Europe stocks were mostly lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.
Does anybody feel any big surprises coming in today's Acreage/Stocks Reports? What's your feeling?
More in a minute,
06-30-2014 10:35 AM
A lot of data being released today:
At 10am, the USDA released Weekly Export Loadings. They were disappointing for corn, wheat and soybeans, compared to the trade's expectations.
At 11am: the USDA June Acreage Report & Quarterly Stocks Reports
At 3pm: USDA's Crop Progress Report.
On top of all of these reports, we are facing the end of the month and end of the quarter. Volatility could be the word of the day.
And if you missed it Friday, the COT Report indicated Managed Money has a large 'long' corn position, less 'long' bean position, and 'short' Chicago wheat position.
06-30-2014 10:38 AM
As we head towards 11am, here are the pre-report thoughts of one analyst, this morning:
"Regarding the numbers: many traders expect to see an increase in corn and bean acres vs the March Planting Intentions report. Since the survey was done, we have seen many acres receive too much rain which should decrease harvested acres; but it is too early to expect the USDA to recognize this problem. I think the biggest surprise to traders today would be a nearly unchanged acre estimate for both corn and beans. Depending on the numbers, the end of the day will be the best indication as to how long the traders will dwell on the numbers. IE: if we see a big move down right after the numbers, then are able to bounce back to close steady by the end of the day, that would be a good indication that we may have found a short term low.
The corn has been selling off since early part of May; I am hoping we see a bearish report that can put the low in for the summer. Al has done some chart work that suggests the end of June through the first week of July historically has been a time when the trend can change. It’s just that the past few years we have gotten accustomed to seeing a high during this time period…"
06-30-2014 10:45 AM
And the market may have some more fundamentals to trade: A storm spotter is setting up shop in Des Moines, at this hour. He says tornadoes have already hit towns in northeast Nebraska, this morning, and they will be tracking eastward on I-80 today. Storms keep pounding this same area of Nebraska and Iowa.
06-30-2014 11:15 AM
Now........back to trading the weather......Anyone have too much rain on those record soybean acres? Wait, did the USDA already count the replanted soybean acres twice?
06-30-2014 12:06 PM
The chart that reflects what the USDA Acreage & Stocks Report said to the market? This is new-crop November, down 61¢. Don't forget, $1.00 is the limit!
But, but, but. June is going to be recorded as one of the wettest June since 1895. And, soybeans don't like wet feet, right?
06-30-2014 12:30 PM - edited 06-30-2014 12:33 PM
Only thing you need to know is...
RAIN MAKES GRAIN. PERIOD
LOOK AT LAST YEAR millions of acres not planted .. second biggest crop ever. They planted 'em this year
Might just have to build a few more Cato's and E plants
Can you say 14.9999B?
This just may open up a few more acres for sale or rent.
How would you like to be in the interior of Brazil with a $2.50 to $3 freight bill?
06-30-2014 01:11 PM - edited 06-30-2014 01:20 PM
Scoville is standing on his head -- the nearby bean spreads are taking off on report.
N down 32
Q down 51
NEW down 75
WOW - somma the people that actually get paid for a job? no wonder this country is & has become Dumb and Dumber.