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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,188
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk June 5

[ Edited ]

After the close:

Argentina farmers call a nationwide strike against a national tax issue. This is being thought of as bullish for the soybean market.

 

Mike

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At the close:

The July corn contract closed 1/4 of a cent lower at $5.67 1/2 per bushel, while December corn settled 15 3/4 cents lower at $5.08. July wheat finished 15 1/4 cents lower at $6.12 1/2 per bushel. July soybean futures finished 11 cents higher at $13.51 per bushel while the November contract ended 8 3/4 cents higher at $12.77 per bushel.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 23 points.


One analyst says, "The weather seems good and wheat is being harvested. So, new crop corn and wheat are down. Those contracts are pressured by more spec-selling vs. cash-selling.  Beans are holding together better with Chinese demand and also some condition issues. Corn and wheat hurt by ideas of increasing world production too."

 

Mike

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At mid-day:

At mid-day, July corn is 3 cents higher at $5.71 per bushel, while December corn is 4 3/4 cents lower at $5.19, according to private sources. July wheat is 11 cents lower at $6.16 per bushel. July soybean futures are 17 cents higher at $13.57 per bushel while the November contract is 10 1/4 cents higher at $12.68 1/4 per bushel. That's got soy meal and oil trading higher.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.02 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 1 point.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures trade 1 1/4 cents lower at $5.66 3/4, while the Dec. contract trades 2 cents lower at $5.25 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 11 1/4 cents higher $13.51 1/2, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 3 3/4 cents higher at $12.71 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 3 1/4 cents lower at $6.24 1/2. July soyoil futures trade $0.12 higher at $48.43.. The July soymeal futures opened $4.70 per short ton higher at $400.90. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.06 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 24 points.

 

Mike

--------------

At 8am:

It's 8am, do you know where your world buyers are? No new, fresh sales this morning. The market is still concerned that demand is weakening. This Thursday's Export Sales Report could be real interesting.

 

Mike

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At 7am:

--Japan seeks 180,537 mt of milling wheat from U.S., Canada, and others. Last month, Japan bought 463,045 mt of milling wheat.

--A Taiwan buyer seeks 48,750 mt of U.S. wheat for June, 23,000 mt of U.S. corn, and 12,000 mt of U.S. soybeans.

 

 

Mike

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At 6:30am:

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 8-10 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.13 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen starting higher.

World Markets=Higher.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,188
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 5

USDA's Weekly Crop Progress Report indicates the U.S. corn rating unchanged at 72%, and the first soybean rating at 65%. Both of these are not what the trade expected. Why are the ratings unimpressive? No rain. And here is this morning's radar from Freese-Notis?  Notice any similarities to the root of the report and the screen?

 

 

InterRAD.gif

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk June 5

Good morning mike. That radar shot looks familiar :smileyhappy:. Just read yesterday where IL had the warmest three month stretch since 1894, Midwest subsoil moisture is 7th driest since 1894 and IL precip for may was 57% below normal. Doesn't sound like a great start to 166 does it? I still contend these crop ratings are useless. USDA "officials" or the local office girl may have a difficult time telling us farmers how our crops are so good/excellent, a waste of time and money but I digress. U could have two farmers with 40 years experience each both disagree about how a field condition looks and these people aren't getting out of the vehicle. Anyway, good news is weather looks a little wetter next week but we will see if it comes to fruition. Hoping to finish spraying the corn today, just waiting on dew to dry. Have a good one.
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,044
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk June 5

The crop for the most part in the I states is not out of gas but the low fuel light is on and the dinger dinged. Another week of this and many areas will be losing yield. Southern Ill, Much of Mo is flat out on empty. My neighbors field right out the end of my driveway on ground that should be raising cattle is rolling and will give it up in another week of this.

 

lots of about knee high corn that is going to need a drink shortly as the water needs of Knee to waist high corn are about to escalate.

 

If at the end of this week no significant wide spread rain event has occured I think we will be seeing pictures such as the ones posted from the drought areas of South America a few months ago start to show up from right here in NA.

 

Printer ink and Crop insurance check paper futures may be a good investment.  

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,188
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 5

Buckley_HF,

 

On Illinois, I agree there could be some tough spots building there. The report showed Illinois not progressing much at all. However, didn't the central and westcentral part of that state get rain most of the day, yesterday? Maybe somebody can confirm this? I get the sense the plants roots are reaching and stretching for moisture. Even if it rains a little, yes that helps topsoil, but the root still is deep enough and not finding any or little subsoil moisture. Am I thinking right? Or, will the light rains eventually help? And I'm not talking about Minnesota here. I think Minnesota may be the "garden spot" this year. Good luck spraying and check back in to tell us if you see any bear or any wild animals run in front of the tractor or anything.

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,044
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk June 5

The ratings may be about right as they are always behind the curve.

 

We are talking about what is going to happen if no rain shows up.

 

 

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Advisor
Jim Meade / Iowa City
Posts: 2,510
Registered: ‎04-30-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 5

The topsoil is dry due to the lack of rain and continued hot, dry winds.  But, tiles ran here till well into the spring.  It is hard for me to believe there is no subsoil moisture if the plants can get to it.  Eyeball surveys show the crops of variable quality.  Fields side by side range from very good to getting by.

This kind of discussion has something for everybody.  If it doesn't rain for a month, the guys who are saying it is dry right now will say, "I told youso" and if it rains next week, the guys who say there is subsoil moister and we can maket it trhough will say, " told you so" while in both cases the other side of the coin will be sayiing, "yeah, but...."  What more can you ask for?  Every body is happy.

My question is, what marketing decisions are you making based on your judgment?  None?  Why am I not surprised? 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,188
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 5

Jim,

 

You bring up a good point. After looking at this dry weather scenario, a 'heat dome' forecast for the next 6-10 days, a dry Russia, tight U.S. corn stocks (supposedly), a firm cash basis, Brazil out of soybeans, two June reports coming up, is this all noise for your marketing plan? I'm curious if folks have a plan and what does it look like, as we sit here on June 4 knowing this crop situation coud go either way? Over the weekend, I had plenty of farmers asking (nearly out of desperation-like breath), what is this market going to do? Should I be selling or not? I think they are squarely focused on weather and not keeping to their guns on that marketing plan they set up earlier this year. What do you think?

 

 

Mike

Veteran Contributor
NABFarmer
Posts: 105
Registered: ‎08-21-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 5

You can have our rain. Have had four inches over last ten days and another two to three starting today is on the way. Cereal crops just emerged to six inches, canola emerged, to some guys just finished mudding it in. Some air drills were getting stuck last week. I wanted to spray one quarter of canola yesterday but pickup sinks in field. Did manage to find another field to do though. Here's a link showing what's on the way. This is just west of where I am. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/bc-25_metric_e.html
Senior Contributor
farsider
Posts: 184
Registered: ‎06-28-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 5

Variability seems to be the word to use this year and I live in the garden spot ! Corn knee high to just emerged( some replant, not a lot). Some of the largest corn has a bit of a stand issue where the the replant looks perfect but looks odd because of how much size difference compared to the rest of the field. The early plant looks good, the replant looks excellent. Probably why I think crop ratings mean little at this time of year.