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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,892
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk June 6

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The the July futures corn contract settled 3 cents higher at $6.63. New-crop Dec. futures finished 6 cents higher at $5.48. The July soybean futures contract ended 5 cents lower at $15.27, new-crop Nov. soybeans finished 6 cents higher at $13.05. July wheat futures finished 4 cents lower at $6.97 per bushel. The July soymeal futures settled $1.90 per short ton lower at $454.00. The July soyoil futures closed $0.14 lower at $48.16.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.95 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 6 points lower.

 

Jeff Coleman, The Trean Group analyst and CME Group floor trader, says the markets saw mixed trade, today, as spreaders took profits and traders tightened up positions ahead of the Goldman Roll and before the June 12th release of the USDA WASDE report. "July corn futures were up 2.5 cents closing at $663.25 per bushel, as the front-month felt some pressure from the spreaders. December corn futures closed at $548.25 per bushel, after falling through major support levels but still holding the 50-day moving average. July soybean futures slid 4.75 cents to close at $15.27 per bushel, as the front-month futures struggled to hold the trend line of the past few weeks. There was some profit taking, as well, in the soybean old crop/new crop spread, as November soybean futures rallied 5.75 cents closing at $1305.75 per bushel tightening that spread by 10.5 cents. July wheat futures fell by 3.75 cent closing at $697.75 per bushel and December wheat futures were off 2.25 cents to close at $720.5 per bushel," he says.


 

Mike

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At 10:15am:

The the July futures corn contract is 1cent lower at $6.59. New-crop Dec. futures are trading 2 cents higher at $5.44. The July soybean futures contract is trading 7 cents lower at $15.25, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 10 cents lower at $12.90. July wheat futures are trading 3 cents higher at $7.04 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $3.00 per short tone lower at $452.90. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.04 higher at $48.26.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.99 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 9 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 9am:

In early trading, the the July futures corn contract is 4cents lower at $6.57. New-crop Dec. futures are trading 3 cents higher at $5.45. The July soybean futures contract is trading 1 cent lower at $15.30, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 1 cent higher at $13.01. July wheat futures are trading 4 cents lower at $7.05 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading unchanged at $455.90. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.04 higher at $48.34.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.54 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

 

USDA's Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows

 

Corn= 158,800 metric tons vs. the trade guesses of between 500,000-800,000 metric tons,.
Soybeans= 638,300 mt  vs. the trade's expectations of 300,000-700,000 mt.

Wheat= 631,700 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 300,000-600,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 271,300 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 75,000-175,000 metric tons.

 

It looks like the report is very bearish for corn prices, bullish for wheat and meal, and neutral-to-friendly for soybeans. WoW! What a corn number, huh? Where is the demand?

 

 

What do you think the market will do with this report?

 

 

Mike

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At 7am:

--USDA sees Russia's 2013-14 grain exports at 24.0 mmt vs. 16.0 in 2012-13.

--On Thursday, Japan buys 163,605 tons of milling wheat from the U.S., Canada and Australia.

 

 

Mike

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At 6:30am:

 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 2-4 cents lower (old-crop), soybeans 6-8 cents lower (old-crop), and wheat 1-2 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 2-4 cents higher and soybeans are seen 2-4 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mixed.
Crude Oil=$0.15 per barrel lower
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen higher, ahead of the European Centra Bank's meeting and U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Report.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower and Europe's stocks are lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Veteran Contributor
fringeacres
Posts: 127
Registered: ‎07-22-2011
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Re: Floor Talk June 6

I know you don't believe us. But the ? Is where is the supply??

If the east coast planned imports in February then they couldn't source the corn. They don't want to deal international unless they have too.  How can us importing record bushels not mean that we don't have it to export.

Even USDA thinks exports go up next yr with their plan of surplus coming back. 

Analysts only have two options, up and down, half will be right unless they all choose same option like this yr.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,892
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 6

Can the farm markets recover from the old-crop/new-crop spreading pressure?

 

VIDEO: To explain it, here's OptionEye on the floor.

 

 

Mike

Veteran Contributor
fringeacres
Posts: 127
Registered: ‎07-22-2011
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Re: Floor Talk June 6

Supply and demand works. If we have too high of prices to create demand, then we probably don't have the supply. Business would cut the price if it meant not having corn leftover before this record crop on the way.:-)

 

I am a farmer which makes me a banker, chemist, meteorologist,mechanic, botanist,physicist, insurance expert,hedge fund manager,trader,vet,landscaper, architect, philosopher, economist, and most of all humble and a good steering wheel holder.  What do I know??  Any other professions we can think of?

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,426
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk June 6

Everyone keeps groaning about the lousy export numbers for corn.........At some point it should sink in that what corn we have is not where it needs to be to be exported......and can't get there without a large cost.   Not sure if those that normally export corn can even source it to begin with.........

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Contributor
fringeacres
Posts: 127
Registered: ‎07-22-2011
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Re: Floor Talk June 6

Gambler, engineer,preacher and aspiring comedian

Frequent Contributor
gregs3821958
Posts: 60
Registered: ‎12-09-2010
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Re: Right Language

[ Edited ]

Can't export/sell what we don't have. Let's get the language right. We need to be sayinge inventory is gone so exports are down.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 2,892
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 6

[ Edited ]

Is the U.S. out of corn? Or, are U.S. buyers importing corn into the east coast, because it's $30/ton cheaper than U.S. corn? Some believe there's corn, you just have to be able to afford to buy it. As a result, the U.S. corn export business is being outbid by numerous countries. On top of that, U.S. corn customers know that if this crop is realized, to the point of 13.0-plus billion bushels, the fall prices will look really attractive. So, do we have the corn and not selling it, due to uncompetitive prices? Or, are the bins really being used as a playground for raccoons, right now? With new-crop corn struggling to get over $5.50, I'm scratching my head about this?

 

Mike

Veteran Contributor
fringeacres
Posts: 127
Registered: ‎07-22-2011
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Re: Floor Talk June 6

I agree that there is some corn. 

What you have here is a failure to communicate. ( infrastructure)

 Ports can't get corn to sell but can import. 

You have a modern government view of pricing.

Yes our price is too high. Now is that because big business wants to hold inventory. No. It is high because of lack of supply.

If we had normal exports then we would run out completely. Basis is the best supply indicator.  

PS

 The USDA #s are Wack.  They work backwards because real # s  don't add up and they can't grasp that reality.

Frequent Contributor
gregs3821958
Posts: 60
Registered: ‎12-09-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 6

As a long time market follower and mostly lurker here, I still maintain that corn exports will go down when we do not have the stocks to sell. If one goes back and checks records, the evidence would probably bear out that fact. A few years back beans (and I think maybe wheat)  had extremely low supplies--inventory was  almost non existant...and exports dropped. Although prices trended higher at these times (until reports of dropping exports were deemed negative). Importing corn....yes....I agree does take place. But that has no relationship to our export numbers. Frankly, we just do not have the corn reserves needed today and this is causing imports to occur and exports of corn to lag.