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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk June 7

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The July corn futures close 9 1/2 cents higher at $5.95, while the Dec. contract settled 18 cents higher at $5.37 1/4. The July soybean contract ended 39 3/4 cents higher $14.26, while the Nov. 2012 contract closed 41 3/4 cents higher at $13.41. The July wheat futures closed 17 3/4 cents higher at $6.42. July soyoil futures settled $1.14 higher at $50.39. The July soymeal futures finished $11.70 per short ton higher at $426.30. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.32 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 112 points.

 

Mike

--------

At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 10 1/4 cents higher at $5.96 1/2, while the Dec. contract trades 13 3/4 cents higher at $5.33 1/4. The July soybean contract is trading 27 3/4 cents higher $14.14, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 29 cents higher at $13.28 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 13 1/4 cents higher at $6.37 1/2. July soyoil futures trade $0.40 higher at $49.65. The July soymeal futures are trading $9.50 per short ton higher at $424.10. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.14 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 71 points.

 

Alan Brugler, President of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says bullish fundamentals remain strong, but show signs of weakening. "The weaker U.S. dollar played a big role in this rally today. But, it is fading just a bit at midday. The weather forecasts for the next two weeks keep most of the moisture north of Sioux Falls/Mason City, while the heat is about everywhere.  China also took some stimulus measures overnight. I don't hear much talk about a bullish USDA report on Tuesday," Brugler says.

 

Mike

-------

At 10:30am:

All farm markets remain higher, with soybeans up 30¢ on the new-crop contract.

 

Mike

-------

At the open:

The July corn futures trade 5 1/2 cents higher at $5.91, while the Dec. contract trades 8 cents higher at $5.28. The July soybean contract is trading 28 cents higher $14.14, while the Nov. 2012 contract trades 29 cents higher at $13.28 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 11 1/2 cents higher at $6.35 1/2. July soyoil futures trade $0.50 higher at $49.85. The July soymeal futures opened $8.60 per short ton higher at $423.20. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.68 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 90 points.

 

Mike

---------------

At 9:25am:

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke tells Congressional committee that the Fed is ready to act, if needed. But, the speech was more conservative on any QE3 thoughts than some expected.

 

Mike

--------

At 8:30am:

Despite the radar showing rainfall this morning, it looks like the European weather model has taken rain out of the forecast for the Midwest, for the next week. The trade sees the markets building in weather premium today.

 

One analyst tells customers today, in a daily newsletter, "A close above $13.10 in November soybeans, $6.32
in July wheat and $5.30 will turn price trends upwards."

 

Mike

--------

At 7:30am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report;

 

Corn=815,100 mt compared to the trade's expectation of 400,000-800,000 mt.

Soybeans=308,400 mt vs. the trade's expectation of 500,000-1.0mmt

Wheat=643,800 mt compared to the trade's expectation of 300,000-500,000mt.

 

 

Mike

---------

At 6:55am:

Early calls: Corn 5-6 cents higher, soybeans 18-20 cents higher, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.46 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen starting higher, after China surprisingly cut interest rates. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke appears before a Congressional panel today.

World Markets=Higher. Spain had a successful debt auction overnight.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

 

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 7

Don't look now, but soybeans have put on 60¢ in just three short days. I realize we took a lot off in May. There seems to be some resurgence here.

 

Mike

Advisor
425Cat
Posts: 1,637
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk June 7

SA is about out of beans and there are thousands of acres of planted  beans in the US laying in dry dirt

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 7

[ Edited ]

Oh, but do I see rain coming? Isn't it surprising that the same area keeps getting most of this ceop year's rain? Here's the latest radar from Freese-Notis:

 

InterRAD-1.gif

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,032
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk June 7

[ Edited ]

Looks like the drought buster we all have been looking for:smileywink:

 

If it stays put and keeps training south I am in line though.

 

I went to DM yesterday and from here 45 miles SW of DM to Altoona my crop rating would be 40% good to excellent corn, beans mostly small.

 

saw NO fields that were in moisture distress yet.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,329
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Mike,

The Euro model never had much in it to begin with.........and the US model has backed off significantly.........and the Euro is almost always more accurate than the US for some reason, it even pegged this last rain event as being more of a dud than stud.......

 

it appears we are in for hot and dry thru the end of June.........which means a normal July could be an issue, and a slightly hotter and drier July would be something we have not seen in quite sometime..........remember 2010 wasnt really that bad in terms of heat or moisture stress in July or August............and 2011, while warmer and drier, we still had a charged profile going into July and a crop that was happy.........if June finishes like it started we are in trouble..........

Senior Contributor
farsider
Posts: 184
Registered: ‎06-28-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk June 7

Mike, a couple of days ago you were wondering what this export sales report would hold, are you surprised about the corn sales number? Little news but good numbers over the last week, a lot of quiet action it seems.
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,032
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk June 7

GLOBAL HIGHLIGHTS & HEADLINES: USDA's chief economist Joseph Glauber made the following statement at the International Grains Conference in London. "With the area planted we expect a record production and a substantial rebuilding of corn stocks which should help with market volatility and bring down prices significantly."

 

 

Corn has a firm undertone on weather concerns that have been largely pooh-poohed, but may be quickly gain nervous respect. The trade has had a tendency to be optimistic about future rain events but many forecasted precip events have proved disappointed or faded from existence completely. Short-term technical conditions will encourage buying interest to build on any 5-10 cent setback, limiting downside probes. Overall short-term conditions can unleash a very impressive rally phase during the next couple of weeks, while the longer-term outlook warns that such a weather rally will be doomed to complete destruction.

Soybeans continue to perform well, managing to avoid minor setback opportunities. Traders may quickly engage in weather market fears. Technical conditions remain poised to build buying interest under the market, with upside potential possibly all the way towards the spring highs. While placed on the back burner the past several days, there is a bullish trader bias towards soybeans that can quickly surface and quickly build emotions, as they believe the US can't afford production threats. Current weather forecasts can build upside emotions.

In summary, weather has been a legitimate concern for several days, but the trade has at times acted as if such concerns should be rejected. There is a sense this morning that concerns are rapidly expanding. Overall short/intermediate conditions are very conducive to building emotional weather premium into prices during the next couple of weeks. Longer-term profiles argue against sustainability of such, but for now that doesn't need to be the focus.

 

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk June 7

farsider,

 

It does appear that buyers took advantage of that 77¢ dip in the corn market. Yes, I'm surprised because the daily sales reports were nearly non-existant.

 

Mike

Senior Advisor
Jim Meade / Iowa City
Posts: 2,506
Registered: ‎04-30-2010
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Re: Floor Talk June 7

It amazes me that people still trade technicals.  How do technicals deal with the volatiilty we are seeing? 

I've always thought trading technicals was like driving by looking in the rear view mirror.  In this volatile time, it's like selling corn (maize)  driving by looking in the rear view mirror in a maze.   Hey, that was pretty good, huh?  :smileyhappy: