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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,151
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk March 1

[ Edited ]

Story: Weather remains a major factor in determining this year's world wheat stocks.

 

Full Story: Wheat Supplies Remain Up In The Air

 

 

--------------------

At the close:

The March futures corn contract settled 4 1/2 cents higher at $7.24. The March soybean futures contract ended 9 cents lower at $14.64. March wheat futures finished 5 cents higher at $7.13 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract finished $0.65 higher at $49.47. The March soymeal futures ended $7.50 per short ton lower at $427.30


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.34 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 26 points higher. 

 

Mike

--------------

At 12:45pm:

Informa, the private analyst firm, released updated estimates for Brazil & Argentina crop production:

 

Brazil 2013corn output=71.6 mmt

Soybeans=84.5 mmt

 

Argentina 2013 corn output=25.0 mmt

Soybeans=51.0 mmt

Wheat=9.5 mmt

 

Bottomline: Big crops

 

 

Mike

-----------

At mid-day:

The March futures corn contract is trading 5 cents higher at $7.24. The March soybean futures contract is trading 17 cents lower at $14.56. March wheat futures are trading 8 cents higher at $7.16per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract is trading $0.16 lower at $48.66. The March soymeal futures are trading $5.30 per short ton lower at $429.50


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.22per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 47 points higher.

 

One analyst says, "The soybean market is taking the big hit and is going down based on the news yesterday but kind of getting circulated today that Argentina is looking to sell and ship 2.0 million tons of soybeans this month. 
"Bad economic data, today, from Britain and this week from China not helping things and the sequester crap is not helping either," he says. 
On the other hand,  corn remains red hot in the Midwest and wheat is basking in the glow and is also cheap compared to the competition. So, those markets are holding, he says. 
"Informa, the private analyst firm, is talking big production in South America, and my sources there are too. So, that is pushing on the beans too.  Both Informa and my guys are talking big corn, too, but for some reason corn has not been affected much by South America news lately.  We keep selling soybeans to China, but everyone thinks they will cancel once the beans hit the ports and the exports of beans start to flow," he says.

 

Mike

--------------

At the open:

The March futures corn contract opened 1 cent lower at $7.19. The March soybean futures contract opened 11 cents lower at $14.62. March wheat futures opened 1 cent lower at $7.06 per bushel. The March soyoil futures contract opened $0.22 lower at $48.60. The March soymeal futures are trading $4.00 per short ton lower at $430.80


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.43per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 11 points lower.

 

Jeff Coleman, Trean Group and CME Group pit trader, says, "This market drop could be contributed to just a pull back from a 2-3 day rally, but more than likely, the grain market is simply a part of the commodity sector which is under pressure from the impending sequestration cuts. Worldwide commodities across the board were all down overnight but gold has clawed its way back to unchanged at this hour. This week’s trading news was dominated by sequestration news, about which the stock market ultimately seemed to care very little, and Ben Bernanke’s two day Humphrey Hawkins testimony," he says.

 

Mike

--------

At 9:20am:

 

--USDA announces Friday that China bought another 120,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14 delivery.

 

Mike

------------

At 7:45am:

--Informa will release its March U.S./World Crop estimates at 10:30am, this morning. CFTC Report is out at 2:30pm.

--Russia has started planting. One source tells me that the Krasnodar and Stavropol regions of Russia always begin planting early. Russia's spring planting acreage is estimated at 30.3 million hectares. With some replanting, due to frost,  the total planted area could reach 33 million hectares. The ag minister estimates this year's grain harvest at 95 million metric tons, up from 70.7 mmt a year ago, according to the Dow Jones Newswire Friday.

 

Mike

----------

At 4:25am:

--Ukraine announced Friday that it will resume wheat exports in April. The concern that the country would run out for domestic purposes has subsided. At least two million tons are available for export, according to the Dow Jones Newswire.

--I'm hearing that the CME Group could announce new trading hours Friday. We'll see.

--How'd the Federal crop insurance rates come out? We'll see today. Overnight anyway, Dec. corn traded at $5.56 and Nov. soybeans at $12.56.

--Welcome to March! What a week it has  been for exports. WOW!

 

Mike

---------

At 4:00am: 

 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 8-10 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.43 per barrel lower
Dollar=Higher. 
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, as the sequestration issue takes center stage. Interestingly enough, the stock market finished with gains in January and February. And history shows that when these two months do well the rest of the year is stronger.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly lower and Europe's stocks were mostly lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,108
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 1

Good Morning Mike,

 

Do you think the lower beans are due to profit taking??? Did not see much news.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,151
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 1

[ Edited ]

Check it out:   This is an aerial photo of grain and soybean trucks trying to get into the Port of Santos, in Brazil. This port, about 50 miles from the huge city of Sao Paulo, is the largest seaport in Latin America. It is the largest container shipping port in Brazil. The photo is courtesy of TV Tribuna in Brazil, published by Noticias Agricolas. It was taken this week. The truckers are mad because of the backups, downtime, etc. The port officials are saying they can only allow 50 trucks in at a time. What a mess!

 

Brazil Truck Parking lot.jpg

 

This makes a 30-to-60 minute wait in the Midwest look like a short drive-thru experience at McDonald's, doesn't it? Holy Cow, Batman!

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,977
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk March 1

How do they know who's next?

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,151
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 1

Hobbyfarmer,

 

Apparently the truckers are protesting this logjam by setting tires on fire, according to the article I read. it looks and sounds very chaotic. And this is only one port. Can you imagine what the others might look like across the country?

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,151
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 1

[ Edited ]

giolucas,

 

You bet I do. Profit-taking and the idea that a bull needs to be fed each day. Plus, the Dollar reached 7-month highs. If we see more news of fresh demand in the next two hours, you might see the soybean market try to get into positive territory. This whole sequestration has folks nervous enough to sit on the sidelines and watch where the money flows. What do you think? And are you happy with the Federal Crop Insurance February average prices?

 

Mike

Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 681
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 1

Marketeye.....I may have to send that picture to some folks who wonder why we cannot dump 600 trucks per day and do it in 10 minutes per truck total time!!

 

now, I get the impression we act like we just "discovered" all of these logistical bottlenecks down there......but the reality is that if you took that same picture any of the last five years at this time, it would probably look the same....

 

just compounded by really big crops this year, correct??

 

Ray J

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,046
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk March 1

Ray , Ray ,Ray ???? What is this crap your posting this morning ????

 

And I quote Ray : now, I get the impression we act like we just "discovered" all of these logistical bottlenecks down there......but the reality is that if you took that same picture any of the last five years at this time, it would probably look the same

 

What is this ? The Great Market Eye is only trying to help feed the Bull's and what do you do ??? Pee in the Bull feed !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Now old buddy --- IF you would like to redeam yourself here - you would post up the true reason you can't dump 600 trucks a day is that's there's NOT  600 truck's of corn left out there !! AND that your paying ?? what ? 3.50 0ver CK to me to haul MY corn -- from Indiana to Eddyville -- now that would be a start . :smileywink:

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,584
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk March 1

ECIN,  It's all about whether you are a buyer or seller isn't it?

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,046
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk March 1

Roar'n-- LMAO here --Good point !