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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk March 1

[ Edited ]

Welcome to March!

 

 

SLIDESHOW: Have you seen the Suffering Crops of Brazil slideshow? This is why the market has been moving like it has. Thanks to our Brazilian reporter counterparts for giving us this front row seat to the drought-stricken crops. Some of the photos make you feel sorry for those affected. Take a look.

 

Mike

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At the close:

The May corn futures settled 4 cents lower at $6.54. The May soybean contract closed 2 1/2 cents higher at $13.22 1/2. The May wheat futures ended 4 cents lower at $6.64.  The May soymeal futures closed $2.60 higher at $355.50. The May soyoil futures ended $0.20 lower at $54.27.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.78 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 28 points.

 

Mike

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The May corn futures trade 3 1/2 cents lower at $6.54 1/2. The May soybean contract is trading unchanged at $13.20. The May wheat futures are trading 3/4 of a cent lower at $6.67 1/4.  The May soymeal futures are trading $0.50 higher at $353.40. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.19 lower at $54.28.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.30 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 43 points.

 

One analyst says, "The markets are weaker from a little profit-taking off smaller weekly export sales report numbers today and yesterday's highs," he says. "Traders see the first two days of the month more like it’s the last two days of the week. We're seeing subdued trading as traders won't re-load longs until next week for the USDA Report on March 9."
.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The May corn futures trade 4 cents lower at $6.54. The May soybean contract is trading 4 3/4 cents lower at $13.15 1/4. The May wheat futures are trading 2 cents lower at $6.66.  The May soymeal futures are trading lower. The May soyoil futures are trading unchanged at $54.47.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.82 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 39 points.

 

Mike

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At 6:00am:

Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents lower, soybeans 4-6 cents lower, and wheat 3-5 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.15 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher ahead of numerous economic reports Thursday.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific is lower, Europe's stocks are higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Senior Advisor
kraft-t
Posts: 10,741
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 1

[ Edited ]

We are in a whether market now. We don't know whether grains are going to go up or down.

Veteran Advisor
Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk March 1

I don't know whether to sell, or to hold.

Veteran Contributor
vandenplas
Posts: 129
Registered: ‎07-25-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk March 1

You will find out when you sell or hold, whether it was the right call or not.

Senior Contributor
rightone
Posts: 217
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk March 1, Don

seems like the current global diametric is alot of currency with steady slow upticks to almost everything, especially equities.

 

Even an "over done" commodity is not likely to go down much.  MO.

 

AND there's a few agri products that may keep on slowly, steadily ticking up.

 

Granted those products which may trend say 10% lower are in fact "relative" down then as comped to other agri products which trend 20% to 30% higher this year.

Cost affective cattle for every environment here.
Senior Reader
BreanaW
Posts: 3
Registered: ‎02-29-2012
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Re: Floor Talk March 1, Don

In export sales we have a report of 120,000 mt of HRW to Iran. Any idea of how this is going to work considering current sanctions against them and issues with their banks? Could this have been a typo somewhere?

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk March 1

Here are new estimates for the March 9 WASDE Report released by PFGBest.com.

 

U.S. 2011-2012 CARRYOVER ESTIMATES:
                                              Corn        Soybeans         Wheat
USDA ESTIMATES Feb. 9     801           275            845
 ESTIMATE     pfg=                790            268           850     

                       World 2011-12 Carryover Estimates:
                                             Corn         Soybeans        Wheat
USDA Estimates Feb. 9     125.35         60.28              213.10
 Estimates      pfg=             123.80         58.00              216.00  
 
                   SOUTH AMERICA CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATES:
                         pfg      USDA ESTIMATES Feb. 9
                                         2011-12      2010-11...........2012-13
Argentina corn crop          21.00           22.00        22.50
Argentina soybean crop   46.80           48.00        49.00
Brazil corn crop                59.40           61.00        57.50
Brazil soybean crop          70.40           72.00        75.50

 

What do you think? Are these estimates of SA's crops too high, too small, or as expected? I've heard Argentina's corn crop could be as low as 18.0 mmt. I'm not saying USDA will print that number, but Argentina sources tell me that. FWIW.

 

Mike

Advisor
Pupdaddy
Posts: 618
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Floor Talk March 1, Don

No Breana, even the individuals running the govt. of Iran know they have to supply a cheap and abundant food supply to keep the masses from turning against them. They've bought grain from us in the unlikeliest (I hope that's a word) times...and will most probably do so again. Even if they don't directly pay the US for the grain..they will find another entity to take possession on paper..and transfer the money through them.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 1

Just heard a central Illinois farmer talking about how he is banking on the fact that his area hasn't seen three consecutive years of the same weather pattern. I guess he means he doesn't see another dry season ahead.

 

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
GoredHusker
Posts: 1,709
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 1

The biggest fear I have entering the March crop report is that the technicals are very similar to how they were when we entered both the January and February reports.  We are heavily overbought on soybeans and we're right up there on the corn as well.  I think we all know what happened on those other two report days going into the report overbought.