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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,250
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk March 14

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The May corn futures closed 3 1/4 cents lower at $6.58 3/4. The May soybean contract finished 1 1/2 cents higher at $13.50 1/2. The May wheat futures closed 6 1/2 cents lower at $6.81. The May soymeal futures settled $1.10 per short ton higher at $367.20. The May soyoil futures closed $0.07 lower at $54.80.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.72 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 1 point.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The May corn futures trade 2 cents lower at $6.60. The May soybean contract is trading 1 3/4 cents higher at $13.50 1/2. The May wheat futures are trading 2 cents lower at $6.47.  The May soymeal futures are trading $0.30 per short ton lower at $365.80. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.24 lower at $54.63.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.87 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 10 points.

 

One floor trader says, "Today's market action is very slow. Very slow trade. Pretty typical of a softer market. When we are up it trades."

 

One analyst says, "The common trade thought in ethanol is that summer high driving lies ahead, along with gasoline, crude oil and ethanol usage highs. It's Wednesday and the crude oil inventory report was slightly bearish pulling crude and corn lower. But, we hit a 36-cent high in corn yesterday, off last Thursday's low. So, profit-taking was in order today. Higher prices lie ahead, he says. "We need a close over $6.66, basis May. And, $6.84 is next, while $6.48 is a low objective for the week," he says.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The May corn futures trade 2 cents lower at $6.60. The May soybean contract is trading 3/4 of a cent higher at $13.49 1/2. The May wheat futures are trading 3 cents lower at $6.45.  The May soymeal futures are trading $1.00 per short ton lower at $365.10. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.17 lower at $54.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.13 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 37 points.

 

Mike

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At 7:40am:

NOPA's February Soybean Crush, released Wednesday, is estimated at 136.35 million bushels, down 6.463 million from a month ago, but within trade expectations.

 

Mike

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At 6:47am:

Off the Dow Jones Newswire:

--Japan seeks 320,000 mt of feed barley, wheat.

--Ukraine lowers its grain export outlook by 17%.

--China's corn imports, for this marketing year, likely to be 4.0 mmt, a Chinese official says.

 

Mike

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At 6:35am:

Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 6-8 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.13 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher on rally follow-through from yesterday. Strong U.S. retail sales, the Fed Reserve keeping interest rates historically low, and most banks passing the government's 'stress test', all combine to support a higher stock market Wednesday.

World Markets=Higher.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,211
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk March 14

Corn - Closing Report
 

Corn futures finished slightly higher for old crop and slightly lower for new crop.

 

A U.S. research team is predicting lower corn yields in the next couple of years because of more marginal land coming into production due to recent profitability in corn.

 

 Private exporters announced the sale of 240,000 MT of corn for 2011/12 delivery to unknown destinations.

 

 Cash basis levels were mostly steady around the Midwest. There was some increased gain movement the last couple of days with the corn rally. Warmer than normal temperatures are signaling an early beginning to spring but late season frosts and freezes are a threat in a year of weather extremes. However, the NWS forecasts temperatures for March, April and May will be above normal on average with precipitation normal for most of the country with the southwest below normal and the eastern Corn Belt (IN, OH, MI and Kentucky) above normal for the period.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,250
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk March 14

And we're told the government will not raise CRP payment rates to farmers. So, there is even less incentive for those farmers on the fence. What about all of this tiling that is going in around the country. Shouldn't that boost yields?

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,211
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk March 14

Tile will only boost yields in wet years,  Poor ground is poor every year and the longer it is farmed (raped) the less yield it provides.

 

The more acres brought into production the farther away from trend line yield we are statically likely to get. Yes we get more bu's but not at trend line, unless every corner of the corn belt has ideal conditions and that is not likely in my opinion.

 

We are supposed to break the temp record today that was set in '77 (77 was a worse drought year than 88 here in South Podunk Country).

 

 IN MY OPINION ONLY

 

The tile in many areas is more a reflection of great prices the last few years and needing a tax deduction. The best part of that deduction is increased production for years to come. Unlike Iron deductions it will provide like new performance for decades to come.  

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,250
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 14

[ Edited ]

Deep South Planting Update:

 

Just got off of the phone with a contact in Mississippi. I've jotted down a few things from my notes. Louisiana has most of its corn planted. Further north, the Mississippi Delta region is planting corn now. From Jackson, Mississippi and southward a lot of corn has already been planted. North of I-20, in Mississippi, planting is just getting underway. Around the central part of the state, 2-4 inches of rain fell last Thursday and more rain hit again on Sunday. But, with 80-degree temperatures this week, planters are sitting at the edge of the field just waiting for those fields to dry.

 

Deep South Acres:

Soybean acreage is going to be way down due to the higher peanut market.

Corn acreage could be about the same as last year. Farmers are really using corn as a rotating crop. Top varieties are short in the MS Delta region this year, So, if farmers get in the field and find out they want to plant more corn than they planned, finding those varieties could be tough. Farmers are applying about 240-250 units of nitrogen this year. It is being spoon-fed onto the crop. In fact, ammonium sophate is being applied at tassle. A bump in yields is being seen.

 

Cotton acreage is expected to drop 10% this year.

 

Overall, the mood of the MS Delta farmer is upbeat. Fighting resistant weeds is becoming the biggest headache. Battling Round-up Ready resistant rye grass is starting to hit the pocket books.

 

Hope you find this information helpful.

 

Mike