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03-17-2014 06:26 AM - edited 03-17-2014 01:53 PM
HAPPY ST. PATRICK'S DAY LADS AND LASSIES!
At the close:
The May corn futures contract closed 7 cents lower at $4.79. The May soybean futures contract closed 3 1/4 cents higher at $13.91. May wheat futures finished 12 3/4 cents lower at $6.74 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract closed $2.60 per short ton higher at $446.60. The May soyoil futures ended $0.40 lower at $41.89.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.95 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 178 points higher.
National Oilseed Processor Association report (NOPA) announces Monday a record amount of soybeans were crushed in February.
Feb. soybean crush was pegged at 141.6 million bushels, outpacing the record of 140.0 million bushels but lower than 156.9 million a month ago.
Also, February soyoil stocks were pegged at 1.893 billion bushels, above 1.794 billion a month ago.
The May corn futures contract is trading 3 cents lower at $4.83. The Dec. corn futures trade 2 3/4 cents lower at $4.84. The May soybean futures contract is 4 cents higher at $13.92. November soybean futures are 2 1/2 cents higher at $11.77. May wheat futures are 5 1/2 cents lower at $6.81 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $3.60 per short ton higher at $447.60. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.20 lower at $42.09.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.06 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 150 points higher.
Helen Pound, KCG Futures grain analyst, says the market is dealing with international news. "The main focus of the market continues to be the tense political/military situation in the Ukraine/Crimea/Russia region, as well as possible cancellation of Chinese purchases of US/S Am beans," Pound writes in a daily newsletter to customers.
USDA announces 110,000 tons of U.S. soymeal sold to unknown foe 2014-15 delivery. Also, 107,400 tons of corn sold to Mexico for 2013-14.
At the open:
The May corn futures contract is trading 8 cents lower at $4.78. The Dec. corn futures open 6 cents lower at $4.80. The May soybean futures contract is 4 cents lower at $13.81. November soybean futures are 4 cents lower at $11.70. May wheat futures are 11 cents lower at $6.76 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $1.20 per short ton lower at $442.40. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.12 lower at $42.29.
In the outside markets, the ICE Brent crude oil is $1.05 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 119 points higher.
Note: Here's my re-post from the weekend, for what it's worth: At the marketing class I attended Saturday, there were a few Tennessee farmers in it. And they said guys/gals are in the fields in their areas, this weekend. The marketing class was held outside of Minneapolis. Whew! A lot of snow is still piled up there, and some fields were completely flooded, in low-lying areeas along I-35, upon my return to Iowa.
All the talk, amongst the farmers, was the detereorating basis prices. I heard basis prices between 30¢ to $1.40 under. And there are guys saying the ethanol plants in their areas are bought up and have said No. 1 they don't need corn and No. 2 they can't get the railcars to ship it. So, huge problems ahead, with a lot of corn still in storage. And, if we get a average to above average 2014 corn crop, a lot of corn piles will be seen around the countryside. It's potentially ugly, according to the farmers I talked to.
Early calls: Corn is seen 7-9 cents lower, soybeans 9-11 cents lower, and wheat 12-14 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil=$0.47 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen higher, with the Crimean vote over.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower, Europe stocks were higher.
More in a minute,
03-17-2014 06:37 AM
** repeating contents about corn moisture **
This mid 50 degree temperatures are a reminder that spring really will arrive this year, and eventually you will want to jump on the tractor and head to the field.
I know you are likely tired of my ongoing discussions about high moisture corn, but the issue is not going away. In fact, the first three days this week, we saw an uptick in corn that was at least 16% moisture to 30% of daily unloads---and the actual moisture on that corn was above 17%.
The last thing we want to do is reject your corn for high damage, but this situation has all the earmarks for eventual issues with blue-eyed mold and other quality issues if not addressed by drying the corn for longer term storage, or moving it to market."
03-17-2014 07:04 AM - edited 03-17-2014 07:07 AM
A fibonacci retracement chart for Dec. 2014 corn shows that the contract has:
--A 40% chance of hitting $5.23.
--A 50% chance of hitting $5.06.
--A 62% chance of hitting $4.89
--A 77% chance of hitting $4.08.
Here is the chart that we built, over the weekend, in my marketing course:
What do you think? If we get to that $5.06 futurea level are you a seller. Or, do you like your chances (40%) according to this retracement chart of getting another 23¢? Or, do you think it will matter, because your basis is widening?
03-17-2014 07:23 AM
Wall street journal article spins the rail car issue and ethanol a different way ---- it said ethanol demand is up and production up complicated by the rail car issue.
We will probably wake up soon discovering we blew our infrastructure money on "pie-in-the-sky" environmental imagery scams.
Continuing to watch a cellulostic plant being built. Like a "keystone cops " film and noone in charge of public money seems to be watching.
03-17-2014 08:54 AM
the ethanol logistics situation has taken time to play out....it started a year ago when margins were slim and some ethanol plants decided to lease their cars to the oil industry...seemed like a good idea at the time, but appears that a few too many participated in that plan, and then, when plants wanted to ramp up "en masse", the tightness in logistics started to play out....but really came into focus with the bad weather this winter in the northern areas where basis is widest and plants would really, really like to run at 100%+ of capacity....
with ethanol stox not growing as expected, appears that good margins will keep rolling into spring and then we will see how quickly the industry can rebuild stocks....it will happen, but may take until mid summer...
Brazil sugar cane crop is a bit smaller than projected....drought issues and it may be a two year effect.....but keeps them from being as big a competitor in global ethanol markets....
we'll also soon know whether we going to see some growth in US total gasoline consumption, which will also be a plus for ethanol
03-17-2014 10:53 AM
Aren't we also exporting ethanol to Brazil? They were already not producing enough ethanol for their own use before the lower sugar cane crop...........plus I thought that I read they are going to be using corn also for ethanol production as well.