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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk March 19

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The May futures corn contract settled 8 cents higher at $7.28. The May soybean futures contract ended 2 cents lower at $14.06. May wheat futures finished 9 cents higher at $7.22 per bushel. The May soymeal futures settled $1.70 per short ton lower at $411.60. The May soyoil futures closed $0.20 lower at $49.48.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.66per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 10points lower.

 

One analyst says that while corn jumped off of the news of a return of ethanol demand, soybeans traded higher most of the day off of news that China is getting tired of waiting for shipments from Brazil.
"I don’t think the news that China is canceling soybean cargoes in Brazil is hurting the prices that much.  It's true that China can’t get the beans out and if they need to buy they might try to buy from the U.S.," he says.
Also, the trade is starting to focus on how many U.S. acres of corn and soybeans will be planted this spring, he says.
"The ideas are big. So, that is pressuring new crop.  People are also taking a look ahead at the stocks report and expecting tight things.  The nearby acts good and the spreads are stronger. I think there might be some demand out there.  Trying to confirm that now.  After the selling from yesterday on Cyprus, I feel a higher day is in order," he says.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The May futures corn contract is trading 3 cents higher at $7.23. The May soybean futures contract is trading 3 cents higher at $14.13. May wheat futures are trading 5 cents higher at $7.17 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading $2.10 per short ton higher at $415.40. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.21 lower at $49.47.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.27per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 37 points lower.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The May futures corn contract is trading 1 cent higher at $7.20. The May soybean futures contract is trading 1cent higher at $14.09. May wheat futures are trading 1 cent higher at $7.14 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading $1.30per short ton higher at $414.60. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.03 lower at $49.65.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.02per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 23 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 8:00am:

--There are no fresh export sales to report, this morning. However, at least one marketing firm is reporting on its morning wire that China may cancel 2.0 mmt of Brazilian soybean shipments, due to delayed delivery. Others are saying this is why the overnight markets were higher. The U.S. old crop soybean stocks may be getting even tighter.

--Don't look now, but Russia is reporting that their March 1 Grain Stocks have dropped 29% vs. a year ago. Meanwhile, Ukraine announced this week that its wheat export ban will extend into the spring.

 

Sure looks like things are tight, tight, tight!!!

 

Mike

-------

At 7am:

 

--Japan seeks 132,777 tons of milling wheat in a tender Tuesday.

--China reports lower hog production, soymeal demand weakens. As a result, China's soybean market ended unchanged overnight.

--FWIW: New weather outlooks indicate cold & wet weather into mid-April for the Midwest.

 

Mike

--------

At 6:10am: 

 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 5-7 cents higher, soybeans 3-5 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.07 per barrel higher
Dollar=Higher. 
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, as all eyes focus on U.S. new-home construction data to be released Tuesday. Also, the Cyprus bank proposal to tax depositers is hanging over the markets.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher and Europe's stocks were lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 19

Update from Argentina:

 

If you missed it last night, here is the latest from Agriculture.com's source in Argentina, regarding their current harvest season.

 

"On this day, the Rosario Stock Exchange reported through its Strategic Guide to the State Agro
progress of harvesting work in core area. For soybean first, and would be harvested 3% of
projected area, expected yield of 52 in bushels per acre. For corn first, progress is around 40% and
yields remain firm with an average of 143.38 in bushels per acre.
Soy second and late sowing is progressing well, with good development, accompanied by
favorable moisture conditions prevailing in the region, and low presence of pests and diseases,
except in enclosed areas.
The second maize are close to flowering stages, with good moisture conditions, and
expected to average close to 111.52 in bushels per acre in the absence of early frosts affecting the crop cycle," he says.

 

I hope this helps,

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,602
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk March 19

So.....Mike, Any confirmation of the Chinese cancellations?   Does that business now come to the U.S.?    Yikes!

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Contributor
viperkev
Posts: 86
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 19

The answer to that is NO, they are not that pinched for beans that they can't until the price drops. They do have reserve stocks to if they want to wait a couple months

Advisor
Pupdaddy
Posts: 618
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 19

...Boy I hope so Viper, 'cause according to NOPA, we don't have enough to spare without destroying demand for the next several years.........(Yeah, I'm just being a little bit sarcastic here!..LOL)

Veteran Contributor
viperkev
Posts: 86
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 19

Pupdaddy.....I'm usually more bullish then bearish but can't be bullish here when, I will repeat that S.A. is producing 25% more than a year ago. "If" the U.S. gets back to a more normal yield in 13' it will mean alot lower prices than we are here. Just trying to be realistic. Too many people get all excited when they hear cancellations of sales in S.A. Do we not get to know how thrifty the Chinese are? As well as the games they play??