03-21-2013 05:29 AM - edited 03-21-2013 02:49 PM
At the close:
The May futures corn contract settled 1 cent higher at $7.33. The May soybean futures contract close 29 cents higher at $14.49. May wheat futures finished 7 cents lower at $7.28 per bushel. The May soymeal futures ended $9.10 per short ton higher at $422.90. The May soyoil futures closed $0.58 higher at $50.42.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.00per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 63 points lower.
Here's an interesting WSJ read on the CME Group contemplating selling off properties. The message I read, between the lines, it all goes back to this idea that electronic trading allows you to conduct business absolutely anywhere you can get an internet connection. Well, if your connection is slow at processing, your trading might be hampered. But, I think you get the picture. What do you all think?
At the open:
The May futures corn contract is trading 3cents lower at $7.29. The May soybean futures contract is trading 5 cents higher at $14.24. May wheat futures are trading 7 cents lower at $7.28 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading $0.80 per short ton higher at $414.60. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.33 higher at $50.17.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.63 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 70 points lower.
Jeff Coleman, the Trean Group analyst and CME Group pit trader, says that beans are taking center stage.
"Soybeans are now becoming the story in the grain complex as beans were once again strong in overnight trading. Beans opened basically unchanged to slightly lower after yesterday’s rally as we saw some profit taking on as the overnight session kicked off. Beans rallied almost ten cents as word began surface that US exports of beans probably increased to around 700,000 metric tons for the week ending March 14th. That is up almost double from the same week in 2012 according to the USDA. Corn and wheat were basically on the sidelines overnight hovering around the unchanged level as we head into the day session. It’s a big day in the equities as many economic numbers will be released by the US government with the focus being on jobless claims, which comes out at 9:30 AM EST and The Philly fed report and existing home sales which we will see at 10:00 AM EST," he says.
USDA's Weekly Export Sales data is big-time bearish Thursday. Here are the #'s:
Corn= 275,500 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 300-600,000 mt
Soybeans=341,800 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 600-800,000 mt.
Wheat=573,300 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 800-1.1 million mt.
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 9-11 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.61per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening flat-to-lower. U.S. Jobless Claims and home sales data is expected to be released today.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower and Europe's stocks were lower.
More in a minute,
03-21-2013 08:48 AM
Japan announced its future intentions to buy corn from Brazil, authorities from the Asian country in a visit to South America. Last year, the Japanese had purchased 3 million tons of the cereal. The decision was taken because of the forecasted decline of American production, they say.
03-21-2013 08:54 AM - edited 03-21-2013 08:55 AM
Thanks for your contributions this week. Between you and c-x-1, you all have made this week an interesting one to follow. Good job and thanks for the information and photos from South America. Hmmm, Japan and other world buyers still seem to think the U.S. corn production is unreliable. It wasn't too long ago that the U.S. was the only reliable corn supplier in the world. To think the U.S. is seen as an unreliable corn source is really shocking, in my mind. Don't get me wrong, I know that mindest is out there. I just never thought the U.S. would be characterized as unreliable. I guess that anything can happen.
03-21-2013 09:09 AM
Even further south than Brazil, there may be a supply problem brewing. In Argentina, BLD, an analyst firm, estimated Wednesday that Argentina's soybean production 2012/13 will be 48.3 million tones, below the government's estimate and the USDA's latest guess. The Grain Exchange in Buenos Aires puts Argentina 2012/13 soybean production at 48.5 million tons and the Rosario Stock Exchange at 48 million tons.
Maybe this news is helping the soybean market rally a bit today?
03-21-2013 09:17 AM
Yes. What I read from analysts is that Argentinians are also avoiding the grain sales because of currency devaluation and cost increases. They have at least 1.6 million tons of soybeans stored.
03-21-2013 09:40 AM
Mike, Do you really think that the corn export market in the US is seen as unreliable? That is a pretty strong statement. Unreliable would mean that other countries have purchased corn for export and the U.S. either can't fill these orders or refuses to fill the orders. I would like to see some real concrete evidence of this very thing happening. If the price is too high, it would not be that the U.S. is unreliable, just too expensive. Huge difference. Maybe the term should be "unreliable to supply cheap corn to the rest of the world." To that I would say, It's about time!
03-21-2013 09:51 AM - edited 03-21-2013 10:03 AM
03-21-2013 10:18 AM
Look at it through the eyes of the Japanese..
what do they see when they look at the US??
A country that has shifted it's focus from exports to domestic consumption, with an emphasis on ethanol, even in years when the corn supply is tight, tight, tight....
I fully expect that our major export corn buyers will never come back to us and be 95-100% suppliers.....they will do what they can to cultivate relatiionships that encourage alternate supply sources
just another unintended consequence of our "never bend, even a little" ethanol policy....
we will eventually reap what we sow...