03-27-2013 10:52 AM - edited 03-27-2013 01:04 PM
One analyst says, "Wheat is the leader today, corn and soybeans are coming along for the ride. Plus, stocks are tight and basis is holding very high. There has been some buying associated with ideas that USDA will show tight supplies tomorrow. Farmers sold last week but do not seem to be selling this week. Not hearing of any new demand out there, in fact it seems we bring corn in from Argentina, or will be soon. So, I think it is just some buying up front for the report and in sympathy with wheat."
The May futures corn contract is trading 6 cents higher at $7.36.The May soybean futures contract is trading 8 cents lower at $14.56. May wheat futures are trading 7 cents higher at $7.39 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading $3.50 per short ton higher at $423.70. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.03 higher at $50.85.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.30 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 51 points lower.
Nice rally going here. It appears somebody wants to get long the market before the report Thursday? What do you see?
At mid-session, the May corn futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $7.33.The May soybean futures contract is trading 1 cent lower at $14.46. May wheat futures are trading 5 cents higher at $7.47 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading $0.70 per short ton lower at $419.50. The May soyoil futures are trading unchanged at $50.82.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.61 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 36 points lower.
03-27-2013 12:45 PM
I was long soybeans and wheat the last few days and got out this morning at modest profits. Guess I should've stayed in a little longer, but it's all a crapshoot before these major reports come out. Who knows what to do. For the big reports I get out the day before or so, then wait for the dust to settle before re-entering. Even with the later hours it's still pretty wild. Unless you're prepared to be down 50-60 cents per contact I would not be in the market when the numbers come out. Done that once before, not doing it again.
03-27-2013 01:59 PM
Just some thoughts:
I have been gathering information about old-crop corn stocks. It's interesting to note that, overall, one formerly very bullish analyst has changed his tune on a steep rally. He's not necessarily bearish, but just not as confident about a sharp rally for old-crop corn. Here is why:
He feels like the market has done a good job (more to do) in rationing demand. With corn exports hovering around 1971 levels, more wheat vs. corn being fed, and little worry about the upcoming and perhaps very large U.S. corn crop, he sees a sharp rally tempered. And, he also says that folks are worrying about this upcoming planting season for no reason. His quote, "People keep talking about how our planting pace is way behind last year. But, we don't need last year's corn pace. We are tight on corn supplies. But, we are importing corn from Argentina at a dramatic cut in price vs. U.S. prices. U.S. corn buyers have found cheaper corn and are bringing it in from South America."
He also feels like technology will afford the U.S. farmer to get the cor n crop planted in a necessary timeframe.
Meanwhile, I'm hearing that some believe an increase in ethanol production will keep the corn market supported.
It's obvious that the USDA has its work cutout tomorrow, regarding printing the U.S. corn stocks figure. Will they ratchet down exports further to keep that 5.0 billion bushel number in-play?
03-27-2013 02:01 PM
Unfortunately, farmers don't really have that choice -- always in the market one way or another, on old crop in storage or new crop to be planted or growing. Big one-day swings really suck.
"My reading of history convinces me that most bad government results from too much government." - Thomas Jefferson
"America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves." - Abraham Lincoln
03-27-2013 02:11 PM
USDA only has 125 mil bu - imports penciled in.
to put those import #'s in perspective, the freeze in south last 3 days set back that corn (300-500 m bu) 3-5 weeks. This is supply the market was counting on for August....a lot of which will NOW not be there. So we have to import more. 125 m bu = 3.18 m metric tonnes. So,is US going to have to import 9-12 MORE m met tonnes to survive to next mktg year????
more perspective-USDA has all of SA exporting only 22 m metric tonnes.
03-27-2013 02:12 PM - edited 03-27-2013 02:20 PM
H. U. A. Syndrome.
Sharp discount? Has he shipped any into Iowa lately from Argentina? He knows it's uphill all the way, right?
Does he know it needs ordered now to have a prayer of getting here before our harvest?
Ship unloading corn in the Tampa Bay area last Dec
03-27-2013 03:57 PM
In relation to the corn being imported from Argentina, it would be interesting to know who the importer is and where it is going.
Some end users are both importers and users of corn so they could make a few cargo's work in order to help keep the market nervous regarding supply and thus possibly hold prices down for their overall input costs.
It was interesting to note that non-commercial futures and options net long positions went up considerably (by 155%) the week ending 3-19 and this is the category that is supposed to exclude the stock market index funds.
Just some food for thought.