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Floor Talk March 28

[ Edited ]

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures settled 2¢ higher at $3.57 3/4, while December futures ended 1 3/4¢ higher at $3.81 3/4. May soybean futures closed 1/2¢ higher at $9.72. November soybean futures finished 1 1/4¢ higher at $9.72. May wheat futures closed 3 3/4¢ higher at $4.24 1/2. May soy meal futures closed unchanged at $315.30. May soy oil futures closed $0.18 higher at 32.47¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.75 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 175 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the May corn futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $3.57, while December futures are 1¢ higher at $3.81. May soybean futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $9.73. November soybean futures are 1¢ higher at $9.73. May wheat futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $4.23 1/2. May soy meal futures are $0.70 per short ton higher at $316.00. May soy oil futures are $0.20 higher at 32.49¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.89 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 100 points higher.

 

Cory Bratland, Kluis Commodities grain strategist, says that today's market activity features more of a bounce from oversold conditions along with lack of any new bearish news.

"Quiet trade, as traders position themselves ahead of the report out on Friday. Rallies, although very small, leading up to the report will be sold due to the large amount of bearish information out in the market place. Plus, Funds seem to be on the sell side here, the past couple of weeks, and that is adding a little more pressure. They have reduced their big long positions by a long ways and have gone short on corn and think that short position reported this week in the COT report could be 100,000+ short corn contracts," Bratland says.

 

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, agrees that the technical side of the farm markets are leading the way.

"The market  is getting a relief rally today  with a combination of oversold technical, slow farmer selling and positioning ahead of Friday's crop report,large acres on soybeans have been the popular topic ,due to lower imput costs , the weather in early April will play a key role in the producers decision," Roose says.

 

Mike

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At 9am:

In early trading, the May corn futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.58, while December futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $3.81. May soybean futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $9.73. November soybean futures are 1¢ higher at $9.72. May wheat futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $4.24. May soy meal futures are $1.10 per short ton higher at $316.40. May soy oil futures are $0.04 lower at 32.25¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.39 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points higher.

 

Mike

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Corn and beans were little changed overnight as investors can't decide whether to look at the strong demand we've had this year (granted most of it was front-end loaded, but still, we're way ahead of where we were last year) or how big the crops are getting in South America. One day they're all bullish because of the demand, the next they're bearish because of Brazil. Corn and beans were both up about a penny while wheat was down less than a cent in overnight trading. The good news for wheat farmers is Egypt, the world's biggest wheat importer, said it needs to replenish stockpiles so it's going to keep buying foreign supplies. In weather news, there's more rain on the way for the southern Plains, which is good news for farmers and firefighters alike. A strong system is expected to move through today then a less intense system will follow and bring some precipitation to the region through Monday. Hopefully that'll quell some of the fires they've had down there. 


Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = 0.8% higher.  

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.8% higher.

Dollar = up 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures lower in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks higher as oil rebounds.

Veteran Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk March 28

[ Edited ]

Seeings how we are at the end of the quarter, how about a graph showing us ag exports to Mexico, this year vs last year?   And, maybe more importantly, SALES this year to date vs. last year.

 

Jen

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Re: Floor Talk March 28

With corn at $3.00, this is important information to the American farmer.  The last time a President used ag exports to force another country to comply with the will of the US, it didn't end well.  Are we there now?   The American farmer deserves these charts.  I know they are out there.  Let's see 'em, so the American farmer can make the choice, of whether or not it may be in his/her best interest to plant this season....

 

Jen

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Re: Floor Talk March 28

[ Edited ]

What we have to keep in mind is that we run a $63 Billion trade deficit with Mexico, as much "backyarditis".  As we have in farming, we sell $3 Billion in ag products to Mexico...well, hello?  Mexico sells us $63 Billion more crap than we sell them and we`re supposed to crawl in the fetal position over $3 Billion???   I realize it`s our ox that threatened of being gored here, but it`s this short-sighted selfishness is what got this country in the predicament that we are in.

 

http://fortune.com/2017/03/22/trump-mexico-farmers-trade-war/ 

 

 

In Iowa, where pigs outnumber people seven to one, hog and grain farmer Jamie Schmidt voted for Trump in part on his promise to cut regulatory burdens for businesses.

Now he and others who farm the flat, rich land around Garner, Iowa, worry about trade. Schmidt gets about half of his income from hogs, earning $4-5 for each of the 425 pigs he sells per week, usually to a Tyson Foods packing plant in nearby Perry, Iowa.

Tariffs from Mexico could depress U.S. wholesale prices and wipe out his profits, Schmidt said. "It would be devastating."

Veteran Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk March 28

And when Tyson foods is raided by ICE, there may be nobody left there to process his hogs anyway....

 

Tick Tock....BONG!!!!

 

Jen

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Senior Contributor
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Registered: ‎10-18-2016

Re: Floor Talk March 28

Jen, do you have hard evidence that Tyson foods is using a lot of illegal immigrants?  Is this a real problem?  If so, it would be good to see your references as this is important info.

Senior Contributor
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Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Floor Talk March 28

Where are these charts and maybe one of us can dig them up and post them.

Senior Contributor
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Re: Floor Talk March 28

I'm short Sep corn and soybeans and a little bit in the money going into the report.  Not sure if I should step aside and take my little profits or hold.

If corn acres stay low as forecast, that is already in the market and shouldn't cause much change.  If corn acres climb, corn prices should drop, I'd think.

If bean acres stay high bean prices should continue to feel pressure.  If bean acres drop from expectations, prices should come up a bit.  My feeling is there is still a lot of fundamental pressure on beans - lots of talk from many sources on the amount of beans out there.

Right now I'm standing pat because I feel that in the long run, corn and beans are both headed down.  I may regret that stance on the 31st.  

 

Veteran Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk March 28

I looked before I posted - and couldn't find anything meaningful. I called Country Hedging, to see what they could provide me with.

As far as Tyson goes, I know in the past, when Hormel in Austin was raided, the company apparently had advance knowledge that they were coming, and a significant number of the work force, didn't show up that day.

Illegals in all many of the farming operations are fairly well documented. I don't work at Tyson, but my guess, is that it is very similar to Hormel.

Jen
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Re: Floor Talk March 28

Jim,

 

Because the idea of more beans, less corn has been talked about for so long, that thought may be already baked into market. What is going to be the market mover is the degree of acreage change. In other words, how much larger the soybean acreage number comes in vs. the trade's thoughts, and how much lower corn acreage comes in vs. the trade's thoughts are the key factors.

Just the fact that the USDA prints a bigger soybean acreage number and a lower corn acreage number will be traded for a short time. But, if the variances on those two crop's acreage estimates are wide, look out. That could have a long tail and be traded until a planting weather event, I think.

 

Keep in mind, there are some analysts that say the market fears that the USDA will come out and say that corn acreage will be 90.0 million and soybean acreage will be 90.0 million.

 

Mike