Agriculture News, Markets, Weather, Ag Talk, Farm Machinery | Agriculture.com
Reply
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk March 28

[ Edited ]

VIDEO: Scott Shellady previews Monday's markets from a macro stance. Pay attention to the middle and end of the video, as the first of it is about the daily market action from Wednesday.

--------------------

At the close:

The May corn futures contract settled unchanged at $4.92. The Dec. corn futures settled 3/4 of a cent lower at $4.87. The May soybean futures contract finished unchanged at $14.36. The Nov. soybean futures settled 2 1/4 cents lower at $11.90. May wheat futures finished 15 cents lower at $6.95 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract closed $2.10 per short ton lower at $468.40. The May soyoil futures closed $0.05 higher at $40.48.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.34 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35points higher.

 

Mike

-------

At mid-session:

The May corn futures contract is trading 1 1/4 cents higher at $4.93. The Dec. corn futures are trading 1/2 of a cent higher at $4.88. The May soybean futures contract is 2 3/4 cents higher at $14.39. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 5 1/2 cents lower at $11.87. May wheat futures are 16 cents lower at $6.94 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $1.10 per short ton lower at $469.40. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.18 higher at $40.61.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.43 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 112 points higher.
One analyst describes today's market activity like this: "Nearby beans are higher on the tight supply scenario that we all expect to be confirmed by USDA on Monday, new crop down on the big acreage ideas.  Corn a choppy day, not a touch higher in low volume.  No one really doing much in futures, although I am seeing a lot of people buying short-dated and nearby options just in case.  Lots and lots of worry on the stocks report side, but everyone expected low planted area and willing to support the new crop a bit.  Wheat is still a weather market and where all the action is today.  Down pretty good as the Great Plains weather has improved and on some talk of Canadian wheat really being moved down here.  Plus, no bad news in eastern Europe today, in fact the pace in the Black Sea is as strong as ever.  Lots of spec selling over there.  Corn and beans are pretty dead and have been all day," he says.
 
Mike
--------------

At 9:15am:

In early trading:

The May corn futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $4.94. The Dec. corn futures are trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $4.89. The May soybean futures contract is 5 cents higher at $14.41. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $11.90. May wheat futures are 7 cents lower at $7.03 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $0.30 per short ton higher at $470.80. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.25 higher at $40.68.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.32 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 140 points higher.

 

Mike

---------

At 7:45am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 3-5 cents lower, and wheat 7-9 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.

NYMEX Crude Oil=$0.06 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen lower.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks were higher.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 28

What's everybody think about Monday's USDA Planting Intentions/Quarterly Stocks Report?

 

A) Bullish or bearish

 

B) Stocks more important than acreage

 

C) Corn stocks will be high enough to pressure the market

 

D) Major snowstorm forecast for the same day will trump the Report

 

Let's fire this talk mobile up. What is your perspective?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,180
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 28

A Brazilian source sent this to me this morning. Interesting soybean export development:

 

A Reuters report revealed today that after Chinese importers had cancelled 600,000 tons of soybean shipments, an executive of a major company is trying to sell soybeans planted in Brazil to some US-based players. The soybeans were purchased previously and just would leave Brazilian ports in April and May.

Analysts say that there is nota  big rush for China to receive soybeans because the domestic demand from the country is lower due to epidemic bird flu cases. The demand for soybean have decreased from 20 to 30 percent. “There is not another visible reason. The volumes negotiated really have diminished”, a broker from the state of Paraná told Reuters.

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,032
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk March 28

We have massive stocks of all grains (even if they aren't yet ordered or recieved from overseas)

 

We will have massive plantings of spring wheat, corn, and especially soybeans.

 

Traders will interpet this as an instant massive amound of grain soon to be available.

 

The massive amounts of moisture in Chitown and east will trump the massive drought west of Interstate 35.

 

Prices need to do a massive plumet for ALL of the "experts" to save face.

 

Within 5 trading days it will have been a massive non-event.

 

Remember you asked for this opinion. :smileywink:

 

 

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,032
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk March 28

011.JPG015.JPG

Pictures taken in the Upper Pennisula of Michigan this morning. Sent to me by a friend of their back yard.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,032
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk March 28

"We may have a weekend coming up beginning tomorrow but as far as the market is concerned today is pre report day.

 

On Monday the USDA will release the perspective planting report and also release its quarterly stocks report.

 

For the acreage report the trade is looking for corn acres to come in around 93 million acres that would be down about 2.4 million from last year.

 

Bean acres estimated to come in at 81.2 million or up 4.6 million acres from last year.

 

All wheat acres are estimated to come in around 56.1 million acres just fractionally below last year's total.

 

As we look ahead to the stocks estimates, quarterly corn stocks are estimated to come in at 7.1 billion bushels.

Beans are at 989 million bushels and wheat 1.034 billion bushels.

 

Overall today's trade will likely to be mixed and quiet trade, as today for practical purposes pre report day and then the trade will evaluate the government numbers on Monday.

As history tells us there is going to be some surprises.

The market is going to see some surprises in either the acres or stock numbers.

Stocks could be the key to the trade early next week and large swings can be expected. Again, today could be quiet but look for some surprises on Monday."

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,032
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk March 28

OK where is that 7.5 million acres of prevented planted acreage from last year in Iowa, Minn, Wis Etc?

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Advisor
Red Steele
Posts: 4,560
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk March 28

Yeah, when those brokers "talk down" the market it really gets me in a mood to sell. I agree with Hobby, soybeans will be soon selling for $5 per bushel.  That is what you will have to pay the buyer, I mean, to dispose of them for you.

 

This gets funnier all the time...no one has any soybeans left, and the market is going to drop like a rock as those barges come up the Mississippi.

 

At least we will have an early spring to get the corn planters rolling. LOL!

"Peace on earth would mean the end of civilization as we know it" Joseph Heller
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk March 28

IMO, A predicted  high number of acres with record yields are already known.   The surprise, if any will come from the stocks numbers.  Which way.....who knows?  But usually nothing good comes from this report for those that want to sell grain.  I highly doubt that they lower the ending stocks of soybeans any further........again, already knowing what number they want and working backwards to make that number work in their equation.  That being said, they will go back to trading the weather in 2 or 3 days after the report. I would guess there has been heavy selling of old crop grain up to this point to take some of the cards off the table.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Contributor
Slim123
Posts: 202
Registered: ‎01-20-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk March 28

I wonder how much the freight cost would be from South America, up the Mississippi then loaded to trucks to soybean processors?