03-28-2014 07:45 AM - edited 03-28-2014 02:22 PM
VIDEO: Scott Shellady previews Monday's markets from a macro stance. Pay attention to the middle and end of the video, as the first of it is about the daily market action from Wednesday.
At the close:
The May corn futures contract settled unchanged at $4.92. The Dec. corn futures settled 3/4 of a cent lower at $4.87. The May soybean futures contract finished unchanged at $14.36. The Nov. soybean futures settled 2 1/4 cents lower at $11.90. May wheat futures finished 15 cents lower at $6.95 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract closed $2.10 per short ton lower at $468.40. The May soyoil futures closed $0.05 higher at $40.48.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.34 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35points higher.
In early trading:
The May corn futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $4.94. The Dec. corn futures are trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $4.89. The May soybean futures contract is 5 cents higher at $14.41. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $11.90. May wheat futures are 7 cents lower at $7.03 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $0.30 per short ton higher at $470.80. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.25 higher at $40.68.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.32 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 140 points higher.
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 3-5 cents lower, and wheat 7-9 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
NYMEX Crude Oil=$0.06 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen lower.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks were higher.
More in a minute,
03-28-2014 08:58 AM
What's everybody think about Monday's USDA Planting Intentions/Quarterly Stocks Report?
A) Bullish or bearish
B) Stocks more important than acreage
C) Corn stocks will be high enough to pressure the market
D) Major snowstorm forecast for the same day will trump the Report
Let's fire this talk mobile up. What is your perspective?
03-28-2014 09:19 AM
A Brazilian source sent this to me this morning. Interesting soybean export development:
A Reuters report revealed today that after Chinese importers had cancelled 600,000 tons of soybean shipments, an executive of a major company is trying to sell soybeans planted in Brazil to some US-based players. The soybeans were purchased previously and just would leave Brazilian ports in April and May.
Analysts say that there is nota big rush for China to receive soybeans because the domestic demand from the country is lower due to epidemic bird flu cases. The demand for soybean have decreased from 20 to 30 percent. “There is not another visible reason. The volumes negotiated really have diminished”, a broker from the state of Paraná told Reuters.
03-28-2014 09:22 AM
We have massive stocks of all grains (even if they aren't yet ordered or recieved from overseas)
We will have massive plantings of spring wheat, corn, and especially soybeans.
Traders will interpet this as an instant massive amound of grain soon to be available.
The massive amounts of moisture in Chitown and east will trump the massive drought west of Interstate 35.
Prices need to do a massive plumet for ALL of the "experts" to save face.
Within 5 trading days it will have been a massive non-event.
Remember you asked for this opinion.
03-28-2014 09:42 AM
"We may have a weekend coming up beginning tomorrow but as far as the market is concerned today is pre report day.
On Monday the USDA will release the perspective planting report and also release its quarterly stocks report.
For the acreage report the trade is looking for corn acres to come in around 93 million acres that would be down about 2.4 million from last year.
Bean acres estimated to come in at 81.2 million or up 4.6 million acres from last year.
All wheat acres are estimated to come in around 56.1 million acres just fractionally below last year's total.
As we look ahead to the stocks estimates, quarterly corn stocks are estimated to come in at 7.1 billion bushels.
Beans are at 989 million bushels and wheat 1.034 billion bushels.
Overall today's trade will likely to be mixed and quiet trade, as today for practical purposes pre report day and then the trade will evaluate the government numbers on Monday.
As history tells us there is going to be some surprises.
The market is going to see some surprises in either the acres or stock numbers.
Stocks could be the key to the trade early next week and large swings can be expected. Again, today could be quiet but look for some surprises on Monday."
03-28-2014 09:52 AM
Yeah, when those brokers "talk down" the market it really gets me in a mood to sell. I agree with Hobby, soybeans will be soon selling for $5 per bushel. That is what you will have to pay the buyer, I mean, to dispose of them for you.
This gets funnier all the time...no one has any soybeans left, and the market is going to drop like a rock as those barges come up the Mississippi.
At least we will have an early spring to get the corn planters rolling. LOL!
03-28-2014 10:00 AM
IMO, A predicted high number of acres with record yields are already known. The surprise, if any will come from the stocks numbers. Which way.....who knows? But usually nothing good comes from this report for those that want to sell grain. I highly doubt that they lower the ending stocks of soybeans any further........again, already knowing what number they want and working backwards to make that number work in their equation. That being said, they will go back to trading the weather in 2 or 3 days after the report. I would guess there has been heavy selling of old crop grain up to this point to take some of the cards off the table.