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Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk March 3

[ Edited ]

Ukraine Update:

*****As of 11am:

--Russia gives Ukraine military ultimatum to surrender*********

 

As many on the discussion boards hash over the Ukraine/Russia conflict, and how long it will impact the grain markets, here is an update striaght from Kiev, this morning.

 

Because I didn't ask to use the sources name, I'll leave it anonymous for now. But, know that this person lives and works in Kiev, watching and waiting to see what the Russians are going to do. So, here it is in his own words:

 

"The situation is uncertain and unstable. But Russia is losing temp as chess players say. The protests of the world leaders, the USA first of all, help much. Now the ball is on the Kremlin side.
For Putin the main problem at the moment is how to get out of this situation with the minimal losses for Russia (in terms of the prestige and economics) and him personally.
I think that the most likely scenario for Putin is to hold till the end of March when there must be the so-called referendum in Crimea. If Putin has decided to annex Crimea than Crimean people will "vote" for the independence and then demand the Russian military presence as its guarantee. And Putin then may say that Russia was legally asked for help. The consequences of this scenario are unpredictable.
The second scenario is that Putin decided to withdraw. In this case people will "vote" to remain as part of Ukraine. In this case Putin may say: I obey the will of the Crimean people.
But the situation may change any moment for the better as well as for the worse," he says.

 

Mike

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The May corn futures contract closed 7 cents higher at $4.70. The May soybean futures contract finished 5 cents lower at $14.09. May wheat futures closed 29 cents higher at $6.31 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract settled $7.20 per short ton lower at $450.50. The May soyoil futures ended $0.59 higher at $42.38.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $2.25 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 183 points lower.

 

Mike

-------

At mid-session:

The May corn futures contract is trading 8 cents higher at $4.71. The May soybean futures contract is 2 cents lower at $14.12. May wheat futures are 37 cents higher at $6.39 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $5.30 per short ton lower at $452.40. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.66 higher at $42.45.
In the outside markets, the ICE Brent crude oil is $2.01 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 202 points lower.

 

Mike North, First Capital Ag Senior Risk Advisor, says hang on for the grain market ride.
"There is a lot of uncertainty swirling around the market. This rally is about the Ukraine conflict.  Ultimately, no one knows what to expect next," North says.  "There is obvious concern about export shipments out of the Black Sea region. But, also to consider is the fact that they (Ukraine) is preparing for its own planting season.  Any disruption in the planting or growing of the crop brings into play greater strength in wheat which earlier offered support to both corn and soybeans."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The May corn futures contract is trading 9 3/4 cents higher at $4.73. The May soybean futures contract is 7 3/4 cents higher at $14.21. May wheat futures are 28 cents higher at $6.30 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $0.90 per short ton higher at $458.60. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.49 higher at $42.28.
In the outside markets, the ICE Brent crude oil is $2.49 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 130 points lower.

 

Mike

-------------

At 7:45am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 10-12 cents higher, soybeans 10-12 cents higher, and wheat 24-26 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading sharply higher.

ICE Brent Crude Oil=$2.90 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen lower, with all markets trading fear of a war in Ukraine.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower, Europe stocks lower.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

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Re: Floor Talk March 3

At 8am:

--USDA announces Monday that 140,000 tons of U.S. corn has been sold to S. Korea for 2013-14 delivery.

--USDA announces Monday that 211,500 tons of U.S corn has been sold to Japan.

 

Mike

 

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Re: Floor Talk March 3

Futures Slide as Drums of War Beat Louder

FOX Business: Capitalism Lives Here 

U.S. stock-index futures followed global markets sharply lower on Monday as the threat of war between Russia and Ukraine swelled.

Today's Markets

As of 8:45 a.m. ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slumped 142 points, or 0.87%, to 16165, S&P 500 futures slipped 19 points, or 1%, to 1839 and Nasdaq 100 futures slid 36 points, or 0.96%, to 3660.

The tense situation in Ukraine worsened over the weekend as Russia sent troops into the country's Crimea region. That part of the country (toward the Southeast) is predominantly made up of Russians as opposed to several other regions that tend to lean toward Western Europe. Still, it's sovereign Ukraine territory and many world powers including the United States and European Union have threatened to enact sanctions against Russia for the move. 

"Barring a Russian attempt to take all of eastern Ukraine, which would produce a grave crisis, it appears that the big angle is economic -- with a growing likelihood of sanctions that will bite, to the displeasure of multinational corporations which may have to curtail their business dealings with Russia," analysts at Washington, D.C.-based political consultancy PRG Group wrote in a letter to clients on the day. 

Indeed, the reaction across global markets was a race into safe-haven assets. Russian markets plummeted more than 10%, while several other major European bourses crumbled more than 3%. Meanwhile, traders tossed money into the gold and U.S. Treasury bonds. 

Gold prices jumped $23.90, or 1.8%, to $1,346 a troy ounce. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell 0.034 percentage point to 2.618%.

At the same time, the geopolitical tumult sent energy prices rallying. U.S. crude oil jumped $2.16, or 2.1%, to $104.75 a barrel. Wholesale New York Harbor gasoline climbed 1% to $2.79 a gallon. 

Despite all the doom and gloom, Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, told his clients to keep their eyes focused on economic fundamentals since these type of crises tend to fade. 

"While we cannot discount at all what is going on in the Ukraine because Russia is not some small, modest country, I would not be surprised if this week’s market close at 4pm on Friday is more determined by Friday’s payroll number and how people think the Federal Reserve will respond than what is going on in Crimea," he said. 

There are several important economic reports due out on the day as well. 

The Commerce Department said personal income in January rose 0.3%, above Wall Street estimates for a 0.2% increase. Meanwhile, consumer spending climbed 0.4% in the same month, above estimates of a 0.1% rise.

Later, the Institute for Supply Management reveals its closely-watched gauge of how the American factory sector is faring. The ISM purchasing-managers index is forecast to have climbed to 52 in February form 51.5 the month prior. 

The Big Three U.S. automakers also unveil monthly sales figures on the day.

Senior Advisor
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Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk March 3

Mike, thanks for the update.......There is definately more to come on this issue.       So.......the end of March, huh?   Gonna be some wild rides in the grain markets for a while. Forget about USDA's numbers for a while folks.......It looks like they won't mean didley squat for a while.  I hardly see China cancelling soybeans......waiting for lower prices now......unless they do it in protest of whatever Obama does.       Grain buyers may want to buy early..........and often.   Smiley Wink

Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk March 3

We need to be careful maybe do some scale up selling. We dont know what Obama might do . Are you old enough to remember the Carter embargo??

Do we export that much to Russia?? I'm not sure maybe Marketeye or someone can weigh here. Would an export embargo with Russia hurt us that much?

Honored Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk March 3

[ Edited ]

http://video.foxnews.com/v/3285812135001/did-obamas-foreign-policy-stumbles-lead-to-ukraine-crisis/?...

 

Some scary stuff in this clip, also a lot of truths. No way is this going to turn out to anyones satisfaction. No flying unicorns, rainbows,  and skittles here.

 

going to take nerves of steel to not sweep the bins right now.

Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk March 3

Man,  I'm tempted to get out the broom.

Senior Contributor
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Registered: ‎09-27-2011
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Re: Floor Talk March 3

[ Edited ]

There is some talk of locking New crop corn prices on this uptick.  I am concerned, what is this record cold going to do about this new corn crop?  Should this be a concern or am I wrong?

Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk March 3

Sooner or later we will confront the russian bear if you believe in the scriptures. All Obama can do today is beat up on Israel. Ball is in Obamas court , can he outfox putin , if not we go higher much higher.

Move up sell stops as we go higher. 

Honored Advisor
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Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk March 3

[ Edited ]

Mike were those sales in the works or a response to the news?  Any way to tell.

 

A boost in exports is a big deal at this point.