03-31-2014 07:51 AM - edited 03-31-2014 02:43 PM
At the close:
The May corn futures contract settled 10 cents higher at $5.02. The Dec. corn futures finished 11cents higher at $4.98. The May soybean futures contract is 27 1/2 cents higher at $14.64. The Nov. soybean futures finished 3 1/4 cents lower at $11.87. May wheat futures settled 1 3/4 cents higher at $6.97 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract closed $10.90 per short ton higher at $479.30. The May soyoil futures closed $0.06 lower at $40.42.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.05 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 140 points higher.
Some of the markets are trying to go positive. I'm dizzy.
Holy cow! Are you seeing the charts, for today's corn and soybean markets. It's like a roller-coaster ride. Down, after the report, then a run-up, and now (at 11:25am) the markets have turned down AGAIN! I can hardly keep up.
What are your thoughts out there?
The market is very volatile. After the numbers were released, the market jumped. Now, corn, wheat and soybean prices have dropped. Look out!!!!
USDA SAYS ACREAGE AND GRAIN STOCKS:
Corn= 91.7 million acres vs. the trade's expectations at 92.902 million.
Soybeans= 81.5 million acres vs. the average trade's expectations of 81.369 million.
Wheat= 55.8 million acres.
Corn= 7.006 billion bushels
Soybeans= 992 million
Wheat= 1.055 billion
--Bob Linneman, Prairie Ag Marketing Services conultant, says the USDA stuck close to the forum acre estimates on corn that were released in February. "That seems to be the trend recently. Some explanation is needed for overall acreage reductions in certain states. The bean acre number is the biggest surprise coming in well above the forum estimates. Today was month end and quarter end; now do we see the funds step in and continue buying the corn complex as well as the old crop beans?? The July/Nov bean spread exploded to new highs today. That will be a great indicator come summer."
--Dustin Johnson, EHedger LLC analyst, says no big surprises. "Report didn't have any large surprises in our opinion. If anything the corn volatility was mis-priced going into the report. Even though the soybean stocks were 3 to 5 million bushels better than expected the market was met with heavy bull spreading. From the looks of it that means this was a hurdle for the funds to get past before they resumed with their long old crop bean trade. The fact that New crop beans gained a half million acres and corn lost 1.1 (from expectations) means that corn-bean ratio is at a new low in 2014. That makes sense given those numbers and we expect ratio to stay near 2.35 through the planting window."
--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says now watch weather. "Stocks and Planting estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat varied very little from average trade estimates prior to the report, although official confirmation of the relatively large drop in estimated plantings for corn acres seemed to affect corn prices positively. Uncertainty around the condition of the winter wheat crop continues to lend support to the markets, while the large increase in planted acres for soybeans seems to be offsetting ongoing concerns regarding extreme tightness in old crop beans.
Attention will now turn entirely to weather conditions that may affect both spring planting in the Northern Hemisphere and harvest in the Southern Hemisphere. The continued concerns regarding drought conditions in the prime winter wheat areas of the United States along with increasing concerns about low soil temperatures in the northern central corn belt will likely influence prices and promote continued uncertainty for all 2014 major grain crops through late spring. Corn markets may be particularly exciting during 2014. A late planting start across much of the corn belt has the potential to stoke both deep concerns about extreme heat during peak pollination season as well as additional concerns regarding early frost affecting late-stage kernel fill in late season corn. Weather is now the main driver of grain prices for the foreseeable future."
--One analyst says: We are awash in grain, unless a weather event changes things."
--Yet another analyst says: "The implied corn demand was about 100 million more than expected which was offset by lower than expected plantings at 91.7 million acres. I expect that corn acreage number to increase by at least 1.5 million acres in the June report. Soybeans and wheat numbers were pretty much in line with my expectations. While initially seen as bullish, especially corn, the Hedge Fund length in the market has muted the response."
--Yet another analyst says the report undershot on total acreage to be planted.
Right after the report, corn is trading higher, soybean market is higher, wheat is up too.
At the open:
The May corn futures contract is trading 8 cents lower at $4.83. The Dec. corn futures are trading 5 cents lower at $4.81. The May soybean futures contract is 3/4 of a cent lower at $14.35. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 3 cents lower at $11.87. May wheat futures are 4 cents lower at $6.91 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $0.40 per short ton lower at $468.00. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.02 higher at $40.50.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.05 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 122 points higher.
Early calls: Corn is seen 4-5 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 7-9 cents lower. The USDA will release it March Planting Intentions Report/Quarterly Stocks Report at 11:00am CT.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
NYMEX Crude Oil=$0.05 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen higher.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower, Europe stocks were lower.
More in a minute,
03-31-2014 11:38 AM
You have become so used to limit type moves off this report, is why you are a bit dizzy Mike!
When you release a report which is very close to pre-report numbers their is no sensationalism to trade.
So not surprised, to see the markets a bit positive now. Corn number was just a little lower than pre-report guess, and Soys about the same...
We now focus on trading weather & planting for direction.
03-31-2014 11:41 AM
A week or more from now I'll have an opinion on today's actions, whatever it is. The bouncing around, normal for this kind of report doesn't necessarily have much meaning with a little time. It will all be up to the assumptionss of papaer traders for the time being and whether they're assumptions were reinforced or not by the report.
Whether any of it has anything to to with reality will be determined later.
03-31-2014 11:53 AM
I'm not for sure what everyone was expecting. Farmers have opened up alot of acres in the last few years, and with the price of fertilizer I don't see any increase in corn acres, Especially out in the "outer limites" of the corn belt. AND with the forecast for cooler weather and a blizzard in the Dakota's think those guys are going to get more corn in the ground??
This is probably going to be normal acres for the coming years, or at least until supply pushes demand lower to take some back out again.
03-31-2014 12:49 PM - edited 03-31-2014 12:51 PM
"We are awash in grains, unless a weather event changes things."
Just where do you find these guys? Even then, I'm not sure why you would repost something like this.
03-31-2014 01:02 PM - edited 03-31-2014 01:23 PM
who is this "we" ? Brazil and Argentina?
A wash in grains... which ones are that? chick peas and turnip seed.
Give up on the word "massive"?
maybe more later.
03-31-2014 02:14 PM
Hobby, that must be the press secretary for the big Zero, that Jay Carney guy that is a master of misinformation.
"Awash in a massive sea of grains"
That takes the cake for the most ridiculous posting of the silly season.
I didn't sell before the report and am laughing now. Maybe crying in a couple of weeks, but I am waitng for a big fat $15 cash on the beans, and the corn can go into long term storage if it has to.
Earth to end users....there is not a guarantee that the 5.5 to 6 Billion bushels left goes over the scales this summer....Ray Jenkins can fill you in on how he had never seen anything like farmers turning down $7 corn bids last summer. Guess what happens with $4 bids and below when farmers are still flush with cash??